A year after the departure of President Bashar Assad, Syria faces ongoing challenges in various sectors. The country's infrastructure and population have been significantly affected by 14 years of civil conflict.
Individual Impact: Mohammad Marwan's Experience
Mohammad Marwan, a father of three, was released from Saydnaya prison near Damascus on December 8, 2024, following an advance by rebel forces toward the capital. He had been imprisoned since 2018 for evading compulsory military service, having been held in multiple facilities before Saydnaya. Marwan reported that upon arrival at Saydnaya, new prisoners encountered severe treatment, including beatings and electric shocks.
Following his return to Homs province, Marwan experienced physical and psychological difficulties, including chest pain, breathing issues later diagnosed as tuberculosis, anxiety, and sleep disturbances. He is currently receiving treatment for tuberculosis and participating in therapy sessions focused on rehabilitation for former prisoners in Homs. Marwan has indicated a gradual improvement in his condition.
National Overview: One Year Post-Assad
On Monday, public gatherings occurred across Syria to commemorate the anniversary of Assad's departure. The civil conflict, spanning 14 years, resulted in an estimated half a million fatalities and millions displaced, leaving the country fragmented.
Assad's departure followed an offensive initiated in late November 2024 by groups in the country's northwest, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The objective was to recapture Aleppo from government forces. The Syrian army's defenses subsequently collapsed in Aleppo, then in Hama and Homs, clearing a path to Damascus. Concurrently, insurgent groups in the south advanced toward the capital.
Rebel forces entered Damascus on December 8, 2024. Assad was transported by Russian forces to Moscow, where he remains in exile. Russia, a historical ally, did not intervene militarily during the final offensive and has since established diplomatic relations with the interim government while maintaining its military bases on the Syrian coast.
Strategic Considerations of the Offensive
Hassan Abdul Ghani, spokesperson for the Syrian Ministry of Defense, stated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies had reorganized after government forces regained control of certain rebel-held areas in 2019 and 2020. The November 2024 offensive, initially targeting Aleppo, was intended to preempt a projected major offensive by Assad's forces in Idlib province.
Abdul Ghani indicated that attacking Aleppo served as a military strategy to broaden the conflict's scope and protect existing liberated territories. The timing of the offensive also coincided with Russia's engagement in the conflict in Ukraine and Hezbollah's recovery phase following a conflict with Israel.
Post-Departure Developments: Diplomacy and Internal Challenges
Since assuming leadership, Ahmad al-Sharaa, now interim president, has engaged in diplomatic efforts, establishing ties with Western and Arab nations that had previously disengaged with the Syrian government. In November, al-Sharaa made a visit to Washington, marking the first by a Syrian president since 1946. In a speech delivered in Damascus, al-Sharaa articulated a vision for Syria as a nation regaining its regional and international standing.
Domestically, the period has seen instances of sectarian violence, resulting in fatalities among Alawite and Druze minorities by Sunni fighters identified as pro-government. In the southern Sweida province, local Druze groups have established a de facto administration and military. Tensions persist between the new government in Damascus and Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, despite a March agreement intended to integrate their forces.
Regional and Economic Landscape
Israel has expressed apprehension regarding Syria's new Islamist-led government, despite al-Sharaa's stated aim of avoiding conflict. Israel has occupied a formerly U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria and has conducted regular airstrikes and incursions since Assad's departure. Security negotiations remain unresolved.
The Mines Advisory Group reported that since Assad's departure, at least 590 individuals, including 167 children, have died due to landmines in Syria, projecting a high casualty rate for 2025. The national economy remains underperforming, despite the lifting of most Western sanctions. While Gulf countries have pledged investment in reconstruction, minimal progress has been observed on the ground. The World Bank estimates the cost of rebuilding war-affected areas at $216 billion.
Reconstruction and Repatriation Efforts
Reconstruction efforts have primarily been driven by individual property owners financing repairs to their homes and businesses. The Yarmouk Palestinian camp on the outskirts of Damascus, largely abandoned after 2018 due to militant group control and government bombardment, has seen a gradual return of former residents. Structural repairs have been undertaken on main streets, and some businesses have reopened. However, large-scale reconstruction initiatives have not commenced.
Maher al-Homsi, a resident repairing his home, expressed a desire for the removal of damaged structures and the construction of new developments. Etab al-Hawari, a neighbor, acknowledged the challenges faced by the new authorities, citing depleted national resources. Bassam Dimashqi, a dentist from Damascus, noted an increase in personal freedoms but highlighted concerns regarding security and its implications for economic investment.
The U.N. refugee agency reports that over 1 million refugees and nearly 2 million internally displaced Syrians have returned to their homes since Assad's departure. However, the absence of employment opportunities and comprehensive reconstruction may lead some to seek alternatives. Marwan, the former prisoner, acknowledges an improved national situation but faces economic difficulties, earning approximately $5 daily from occasional labor. He plans to seek employment in Lebanon following the completion of his tuberculosis treatment.