Syria: One Year After Assad's Departure, Reconstruction and Stability Challenges Persist
Syria recently observed the one-year anniversary of Bashar al-Assad's departure from power, an event that followed 14 years of civil conflict. The country now faces significant challenges related to recovery, reconstruction, and establishing stability.
Individual Experiences Post-Imprisonment
Mohammad Marwan, a father of three, was released from Saydnaya prison near Damascus on December 8, 2024. He had been detained in 2018 for evading compulsory military service and had been held in multiple facilities. Marwan reported experiencing beatings and electric shocks upon his arrival at Saydnaya. Following his release, he was diagnosed with tuberculosis, which caused chest pain and breathing difficulties, and also reported experiencing anxiety and sleep disturbances. He is currently undergoing treatment for tuberculosis and attending therapy sessions at a rehabilitation center in Homs. Marwan stated that his physical and mental condition has gradually improved, describing his experience in prison as 'a state of death' and his current situation as 'coming back to life'.
Anniversary and National Context
On Monday, thousands of Syrians participated in celebrations commemorating the anniversary of Assad's departure. The end of the 50-year rule by the Assad dynasty followed a civil war estimated to have caused 500,000 deaths and displaced millions, leaving the country extensively damaged and fragmented.
The Events Leading to Assad's Departure
Assad's departure occurred more abruptly than anticipated by many, including insurgent groups. In late November 2024, an offensive was launched by groups from the country's northwest, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose former leader Ahmad al-Sharaa is now Syria's interim president. This offensive aimed to reclaim Aleppo from government forces. The Syrian army subsequently experienced a collapse of resistance, first in Aleppo, then in the cities of Hama and Homs, opening routes to Damascus. Concurrently, insurgent groups in the south advanced toward the capital.
Damascus was entered by rebels on December 8, at which point Assad was transported from Syria by Russian forces and is presently in Moscow. Russia, a long-term ally, did not provide military intervention to defend Assad's government. Since then, Russia has established relations with the new Syrian leadership and maintained its military bases on the Syrian coast.
Hassan Abdul Ghani, spokesperson for the Syrian Ministry of Defense, indicated that HTS and its allies undertook a significant organizational restructuring after government forces regained control of several formerly rebel-held areas in 2019 and 2020. The November 2024 offensive on Aleppo was described as a military strategy to expand the battle's scope and protect 'liberated interior areas,' intended to preempt an anticipated major offensive by Assad's forces in opposition-held Idlib. Insurgents also utilized the period when Russia was engaged in the conflict in Ukraine and Hezbollah was addressing internal challenges following its conflict with Israel.
Post-Assad Governance and International Relations
Since assuming power, interim President al-Sharaa has initiated diplomatic outreach, fostering connections with Western and Arab nations that had previously maintained distance from the Assad government and had designated al-Sharaa as a terrorist. In November, al-Sharaa became the first Syrian president since the country's independence in 1946 to visit Washington. In a speech delivered in Damascus on Monday, al-Sharaa outlined his vision for Syria as a 'strong country' that would reclaim its regional and international standing and join 'the ranks of the most advanced nations'.
Domestic Challenges
Challenges within Syria include outbreaks of sectarian violence, where hundreds of civilians from the Alawite and Druze minority groups were reported killed by pro-government Sunni fighters. Local Druze groups have subsequently established a de facto government and military presence in the southern Sweida province. Tensions persist between the new government in Damascus and Kurdish-led forces controlling the country's northeast, despite an agreement signed in March aimed at integrating their forces.
Israel has expressed caution regarding Syria's new Islamist-led government, despite al-Sharaa's stated intent to avoid conflict with Israel. Israel has established control over a formerly U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria and has conducted regular airstrikes and incursions since Assad's departure. Negotiations for a security agreement have stalled.
Remnants of the civil war continue to pose risks. The Mines Advisory Group reported on Monday that at least 590 individuals, including 167 children, have died from landmine incidents in Syria since Assad's departure, projecting a high landmine casualty rate for 2025.
Economic Situation and Reconstruction Efforts
Economically, the country has experienced sluggish activity despite the lifting of most Western sanctions. While some Gulf countries have pledged investments in reconstruction, limited on-the-ground implementation of these projects has occurred. The World Bank estimates that the cost of rebuilding war-damaged areas throughout the country totals $216 billion.
Reconstruction efforts have largely been undertaken by individual property owners financing repairs to their own damaged houses and businesses.
For example, the Yarmouk Palestinian camp, located near Damascus, shows extensive damage in many areas. After being affected by various militant groups and government bombardment, it was largely abandoned after 2018. Since Assad's departure, a steady return of former residents has been observed. While the most damaged sections remain deserted, some structurally sound buildings on the main street have been repaired, shops have reopened, and families have returned to apartments. However, larger-scale reconstruction initiatives have not yet materialized. Maher al-Homsi, who is repairing his damaged home, expressed a desire for the removal of old destroyed houses and the construction of new developments, noting the area currently lacks a water connection. Etab al-Hawari, a neighbor, acknowledged the challenges faced by the new authorities, citing inherited issues such as depleted financial resources and damaged infrastructure.
Bassam Dimashqi, a dentist from Damascus, stated that the post-Assad situation offers 'freedom of some sort' but expressed concern about security and its economic implications. He emphasized that state-imposed security is crucial for attracting investors and facilitating projects.
Returnees and Economic Challenges
The U.N. refugee agency reports that over 1 million refugees and nearly 2 million internally displaced Syrians have returned to their homes since Assad's departure. However, the absence of employment opportunities and comprehensive reconstruction efforts may lead some to leave again.
Mohammad Marwan, the former prisoner, assessed the post-Assad situation as 'far better' but faces economic hardship. He occasionally finds labor work that pays approximately 50,000 to 60,000 Syrian pounds daily, equivalent to about $5. Upon completing his tuberculosis treatment, he plans to relocate to Lebanon to seek higher-paid employment.