Bulgaria Elects New Parliament, Radev's Coalition Wins Decisive Majority

The center-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, Progressive Bulgaria (PB), has won a decisive majority in Bulgaria's eighth parliamentary election in five years.

With all votes counted from Sunday's election, PB received approximately 44.6% of the vote, which is projected to give it between 130 and 132 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly. The election follows the collapse of the previous conservative-led government in December.

Election Results and Political Landscape

According to the final results from Bulgaria's Central Electoral Commission:

The Progressive Bulgaria coalition, led by Rumen Radev, received 44.6% of the vote.
The center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, received 13.4%.
The pro-Western, reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition received 12.6%.
Two other parties crossed the 4% threshold to enter parliament.

Boyko Borissov conceded defeat and congratulated Radev. In a statement, Borissov said his party would not enter any coalitions and would act a "constructive opposition," adding that "elections decide who comes first, but negotiations will decide who governs."

Background to the Snap Election

The election was called after the resignation of a conservative-led government in December 2023. That government's collapse followed nationwide protests, where hundreds of thousands of demonstrators, primarily young people, called for an independent judiciary to address corruption.

Bulgaria has experienced significant political instability since 2021, with fragmented parliaments leading to a series of weak coalition governments. No government has completed a full term in over three years.

Key Positions of the Leading Party

Rumen Radev served as Bulgaria's president for nine years before resigning in January to run for prime minister. His campaign focused on pledges to combat corruption and change what he described as an "oligarchic governance model."

On foreign policy, Radev has articulated several positions:

He has advocated for Bulgaria to renew dialogue and ties with Russia.
He has criticized sending military aid to Ukraine and opposed a 10-year defense agreement signed between Bulgaria and Ukraine in March, arguing that such support risks drawing Bulgaria into the conflict.
During the campaign, he reaffirmed a previous statement that the annexed Crimean Peninsula "is Russian," a position that has drawn criticism.
He has also officially denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine and stated he would not use Bulgaria's veto power to block European Union decisions or aid to Kyiv.

Following the victory, Radev stated that Bulgaria would "make every effort to continue on its European path," but added that "a strong Bulgaria and a strong Europe need critical thinking and pragmatism."

International and Expert Reaction

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Radev on social media, stating she looked forward to working together.

Policy analysts provided context on the potential direction of the new government. Maria Simeonova of the European Council on Foreign Relations suggested that while Radev made pro-Russian statements as president, his landslide victory means he is likely to seek external legitimacy by building relationships with other European leaders. She noted his criticism of support for Ukraine would be aimed primarily at a domestic audience.

Vessela Tcherneva, also of the ECFR, stated the most important task for the new government would be reforming Bulgarian institutions, a task for which he might find support from the PP-DB coalition.

National and Regional Context

Bulgaria is a member of the European Union, NATO, and recently adopted the euro as its currency in January 2024. The country has faced repeated criticism from EU institutions for not tackling corruption and for deficiencies in the rule of law.

The election in Bulgaria follows a recent election in Hungary, where the policies of long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, including his cultivation of ties with Russia, were a subject of discussion. Orbán's party was defeated after 16 years in power.