Iran Faces Tight Oil Storage Window Amid Export Disruption Risks
Strait of Hormuz Scenario: Capacity Nears Limit
Iran's ability to sustain oil exports without disruption faces a finite timeline. According to current data, the country's onshore storage capacity stands at approximately 86 million barrels. At present, these facilities are about 54% full, holding roughly 47 million barrels.
With roughly 40 million barrels of working capacity remaining, Iran has the equivalent of about 22 days of exports available.
This situation is further impacted by fleet positioning. Four Iran-linked Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) remain inside the Strait of Hormuz. If fully loaded, these vessels could carry an additional 8 million barrels, extending the potential operating window to a total of roughly 26 days.
Production Curtailments on a Delayed Timeline
In a worst-case scenario involving a complete export blackout, the upstream sector would not react immediately. Analysts estimate that upstream production adjustments would likely begin after approximately 16 days.
Following this initial trigger, curtailments are projected to ramp up significantly. The process would move toward full export-volume shut-ins—amounting to around 1.9 million barrels per day—closer to the 30-day mark. This sequence highlights the lag between a disruption at the export level and the subsequent impact on actual production.