Iran's Triple Crisis: Protests, External Pressures, and Geopolitical Implications for Russia

Iran is grappling with a new wave of internal protests amid an economic crisis, while closely monitoring international events, notably a U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro. These developments are fueling discussions within Iran about potential external threats and have significant geopolitical and economic repercussions for Russia.

Internal Situation in Iran: Widespread Protests and Crackdown

Over the past week, pockets of protests have emerged across Iran, coinciding with a severe economic crisis. These demonstrations began with shopkeepers protesting the national currency's devaluation, initially localized and largely peaceful.

The protests have since expanded nationwide, reportedly affecting 88 cities across 27 of Iran's 31 provinces, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Iranian security forces, including the Basij paramilitary, have been deployed to manage the unrest. HRANA reports varying casualty figures: one account stated at least 29 protesters had been killed and approximately 1,200 arrested after nine days, while another cited over 2,500 protester fatalities attributed to government forces. Security forces reportedly raided a hospital in Ilam to arrest wounded protesters.

Iran's leadership distinguishes between legitimate protest and rioting. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on X that officials should communicate with protesters but that "Rioters must be put in their place." Iranian officials have labeled some demonstrators as "rioters," "mercenaries," and "foreign-linked agitators."

External Pressures and Regional Context

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which saw U.S. forces land in Caracas to apprehend President Nicolás Maduro, has been condemned by Iranian state media and officials. Public discussions in Iran include concerns about the potential for similar U.S. actions targeting Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Saeed Seyyedi, a teacher in Tehran, voiced worries about potential U.S. plots against Iran, linking them to oil, Israel, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hezbollah, and drug accusations. The U.S. has historically accused the Iranian-backed Hezbollah of drug-smuggling, a claim denied by the group.

Concerns also extend to potential actions by Israel against Iran. Past events cited include a reported 12-day conflict in June where Israeli forces reportedly targeted military officials and nuclear scientists, and the U.S. reportedly bombed Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. During this period, Khamenei was reported to have sought protective measures. Last summer, Israel reportedly initiated a conflict against Iran, involving intelligence infiltration and agents smuggling weapons to strike targets within Iranian territory. Following this, Iranian authorities conducted arrests and executed at least 10 individuals. On Monday, Iranian state media announced an arrest in Tehran on suspicion of collaboration with the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.

U.S. President Donald Trump, prior to the Venezuela operation, had warned Iran that if it "violently kills peaceful protesters," the U.S. "will come to their rescue." A second warning was issued within a week, stating the U.S. would respond if Iranian authorities killed protesters. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei described comments by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an "incitement to violence, terrorism and killing." Netanyahu commented on the protests in Tehran, stating, "It is very possible that we are standing at the moment when the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands," without directly connecting Maduro's detention to Iran. Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid remarked on social media that the "regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela."

Analysts describe Iran as viewing U.S. intentions as "maximalist and hostile" and facing a "triple crisis" encompassing economic, political, and external military pressures from the U.S. and Israel.

Parallels with Venezuela

Venezuela, under former President Hugo Chavez and later Nicolas Maduro, forged close ties with Iran. Both nations, facing U.S. sanctions, engaged in economic and military cooperation. Iran provided assistance to Venezuela's oil sector and planned, then withdrew from, a project to build a train line for Caracas's metro system. Similarities between the two nations include vast petroleum and mineral reserves, historical opposition to the U.S., and enduring U.S. sanctions leading to economic challenges. Key differences exist, with Iran operating as a theocratic republic rooted in Shiite Islam, and Venezuela as a socialist and secular state.

Iran's Strategic Posture

Iran's geographical size is approximately double that of Venezuela, and it possesses a military and security apparatus generally considered more robust. The historical context of Operation Eagle Claw, a U.S. special forces mission in 1979 that failed to rescue hostages in Tehran, remains a factor in U.S. strategic considerations. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that Iran's political structure, including the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard who report directly to Khamenei, presents complexities. These forces could potentially engage in assassinations, cyberattacks, and maritime assaults in the Middle East. Iran also possesses fissile nuclear material.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, stated that "all American centers and forces across the entire region will be legitimate targets for us in response to any potential actions." Both loyalist and opposition factions within Iran have historically demonstrated aversion to foreign intervention. Supreme Leader Khamenei has maintained that negotiations with the U.S. are a pretext for efforts to destabilize the Islamic Republic, asserting that confrontation is inevitable.

Geopolitical Implications for Russia

The ongoing protests in Iran carry significant implications for Russia, identified as a key economic, military, and strategic partner. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not publicly addressed the demonstrations, but analysts suggest he is closely observing them. Experts indicate that a change in Iran's regime would be unfavorable for Russia and could represent a significant regional concern for the Kremlin. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the situation, criticizing the United States and stating that external parties cannot alter the core relationship between Moscow and Tehran. Russia opposes Iran's development of nuclear weapons; Russia did not intervene during Iran's conflict with Israel and the U.S. last year, with Putin stating no assistance was requested.

Recent Geopolitical Shifts Affecting Russia

• Syria: In December 2024, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, a Russian partner, was overthrown by rebel groups. Russia had supported Assad militarily, leading to a reset in relations with the new government, which has engaged with other international actors despite Russia maintaining bases and trade ties.
• Venezuela: U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, a key Russian ally in Latin America. This event highlighted Russia's diminished influence, as its air-defense systems in Venezuela reportedly failed.

Iran's Strategic Importance to Russia

Iran is a critical partner for Russia. Economically, they have cooperated to circumvent Western sanctions. Militarily, Iran is a significant supplier of equipment and expertise to Russia, including the use of Iranian Shahed drones in Ukraine, with Iran assisting Russia in developing independent manufacturing capabilities for these drones. Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that Iran is central to Russia's geopolitical agenda, which aims for a world order where major powers operate without constraint in their regions. Iran's current regime is described as aligning with this vision and contributing to Russia's objectives in the Middle East. Despite a recent strategic partnership agreement, Moscow and Tehran lack formal defense commitments.

Potential Future Outcomes for Russia

The outcome of potential regime change in Iran and its impact on relations with Russia remains uncertain. Protests originated from economic issues and expanded to include grievances related to corruption and opposition to the religious establishment. Such grievances could lead a new Iranian administration to seek new international relationships. Borshchevskaya indicated that Russia's primary concern is Iran becoming pro-Western, potentially leading to Russia's diminished influence.

Economic Impacts for Russia

Russian officials have characterized the escalating Middle East crisis as a potential economic opportunity. Russian Envoy Kirill Dmitriev indicated that crude oil prices could reach over $100 per barrel. On March 2, Brent crude futures on the London ICE exchange initially increased by 13.04%, reaching $82.37 per barrel, its highest level in over a year, before settling at $79.38. This price movement followed Iran's March 1 announcement regarding the suspension of trade through the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes. Approximately 20% of global oil and up to 30% of liquefied natural gas transit this waterway.

Economists suggest Russia is likely to benefit from the conflict, with Oleksandr Talavera, a professor of financial economics, noting Russia's potential gains. Analysts indicate that a prolonged disruption in the Persian Gulf could lead to higher oil prices. Reports suggest that Middle Eastern leaders have informed Washington that prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the conflict expands. A blockade would restrict sanctioned Iranian crude and legal exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. In such a scenario, Russia could become a primary supplier to fill part of the supply gap, particularly through discounted shipments to Asian markets.

Luke Wickenden, an energy and sanctions analyst, stated that the increase in oil revenue is becoming a significant financial support for Russia. CERA analysis indicates Russia's average crude oil export earnings during the first two weeks of the Iran conflict were approximately $230 million per day, a 26% increase from February's daily average. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed these boosted profits, stating they translate into increased budget revenues. Oil and gas revenues constitute about one-quarter of Russia's federal budget, supporting its military efforts.

U.S. Sanctions Waivers and Shifting Trade Patterns

The U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day waiver on sanctions imposed on Russian energy sales related to its invasion of Ukraine, permitting Russia to sell oil already loaded onto tankers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the waiver as a "narrowly tailored, short-term measure" aimed at promoting stability in global energy markets, maintaining it would not provide substantial financial benefit to the Russian government. Analysts and Russia dispute this assessment, noting that the 10-20% discount on Russian crude oil before the waiver has reportedly disappeared, with prices now aligning closely with Brent crude. Wickenden attributes this revenue boost partly to the waiver incentivizing buyers to increase imports. For example, China's imports have reportedly risen by 22% compared to the previous month, Brazil's by 32%, and Singapore's has nearly tripled.

Earlier this month, Bessent also announced a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, a move intended to maintain global oil flow amid the Middle East conflict. This action reversed a previous Trump administration policy that had imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports due to its substantial purchases of Russian oil. India is the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented that Russia's increased income could give President Vladimir Putin more confidence to continue the conflict in Ukraine, reporting that Russia gained approximately $10 billion over two weeks of the Middle East conflict.

Disruptions in Middle Eastern supply could solidify Russia's position as an alternative crude supplier to Asian markets. India and China, Russia's largest oil customers, had decreased imports under Western pressure, leading Moscow to offer deeper discounts. India is reportedly considering contingency plans, including reverting to Russian cargoes if Middle Eastern supply tightens. John Lough, an associate fellow, suggested China might also increase its maritime purchases from Russia, especially if it seeks to replace Iranian imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Potential Limitations

Despite potential benefits, some analysts suggest that higher oil prices may not fundamentally shift the balance in Russia's favor. John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador, indicated that the long-term outcome depends on developments within Iran. He noted that if fighting quickly subsides, potentially leading to a stable, non-theocratic government, oil prices could decrease, possibly below pre-strike levels. Herbst concluded that while rising oil prices economically benefit Russia, the potential removal of Russian-friendly leadership in Iran presents a geopolitical disadvantage. Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, suggested that while these financial benefits provide Russia with greater "flexibility" in its war efforts, they are unlikely to be a "gamechanger" for Moscow's ongoing conflict in Ukraine.