Background
The Commonwealth Fund, an organization focused on health care equity, published an analysis by researchers from the University of Maryland, York University, and Yale University. The study aimed to estimate the impact of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program from December 2020 through November 2022.
Key Findings from the Study
The modeling estimated that vaccination prevented more than 18.5 million hospitalizations, 3.2 million deaths, and nearly 120 million infections. The program was also estimated to have saved $1.15 trillion in medical costs.
Criticisms and Counterarguments
Critics argue the numbers are implausible. For example, the claim of 3.2 million deaths prevented would imply a death toll far exceeding the actual COVID-19 deaths in 2021 and 2022.
The CDC reported approximately 460,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2021 and 244,000 in 2022. A total of 3.2 million prevented deaths over two years would correspond to a rate of 1.22% of the U.S. population, which critics say is inconsistent with the infection fatality rate.
Infection fatality rate studies indicate lower rates, e.g., median IFR of 0.5% for ages 60-69 and much lower for younger groups. Critics also note that COVID-19 infects individuals regardless of vaccination status, citing high infection rates in highly vaccinated countries like South Korea and Denmark.
Hospitalization claims are also questioned: the study's implied 23.1 million hospitalizations (one in 14 Americans) is considered unrealistic given actual hospitalization numbers of about 4.6 million.
Authors and Affiliation
The researchers are affiliated with academic institutions and the Commonwealth Fund, which advocates for equitable health care. Critics suggest the fund's mission may have influenced the modeling inputs and desired outcomes.