"The proposal expands the lottery to 16 teams, includes some Play-In Tournament participants, draws for all 16 positions instead of only the top 4, and redistributes odds to make them less favorable for the very worst and best teams while increasing chances for mid-tier lottery teams."
A New Era for the NBA Draft Lottery?
The NBA is reportedly considering a significant overhaul of its Draft Lottery system, with the explicit goal of reducing the incentive for teams to intentionally lose games—a practice known as "tanking." The proposal, still in discussion, would expand the lottery to 16 teams, include some Play-In Tournament participants, and draw for all 16 positions instead of just the top four.
How the Odds Would Shift
The core of the change is a redistribution of lottery odds. The plan is designed to make things less favorable for the league's worst teams while vastly improving the chances for mid-tier and borderline playoff teams.
- Worst Teams (Bottom 3): Currently, these teams have a 14% chance for a top-4 pick. Under the proposal, they would get only two balls (roughly a 5.5% chance per draw) and risk falling all the way to the 12th pick. This makes demotion far more likely and significantly reduces their expected outcome.
- Best Lottery Teams (13th-16th): This is the biggest potential winner group. Their promotion chances increase substantially, with 10 to 12 opportunities to move up in the draft. This could shift tanking behavior from the bottom of the standings to the playoff/Play-In border.
- Mid-Tier Teams: Teams currently with a 0.5%-1.5% chance of moving up could see a major boost. Under the proposal, a team with three balls has an ~8% chance per draw, two balls gives ~5.5%, and one ball gives ~2.7%. Drawing for all 16 picks gives these teams multiple chances to climb the board.
Impact on the Portland Trail Blazers
For the Blazers, who control their own first-round picks from 2027 onward, the impact depends entirely on their performance.
- If they improve: The change is moot; they would likely be out of the lottery.
- If they remain a borderline Play-In or slightly worse team: The new system is a clear benefit. It would give them a significantly better shot at a top pick than the current system does.
- If they are truly bad: The new system would be a disadvantage, lowering their expected draft position.
The Milwaukee Bucks Factor (2028-2030)
The Blazers also hold picks and swaps involving the Milwaukee Bucks. The proposal creates a clear risk-reward scenario for this asset.
- If the Bucks are truly bad: The old system would be better for Portland, guaranteeing a very high pick.
- If the Bucks are middling: The new system helps, as Portland would have a much better chance to move up with that pick.
- The Double-Edged Sword: If both the Blazers' and Bucks' picks land in the lottery, Portland would double its promotion opportunity. However, the trade value of Milwaukee's future picks likely decreases under the new system, potentially incentivizing the Blazers to hold rather than trade them.
Key Takeaways
- Not Final: The NBA has not finalized the proposal; discussions are ongoing.
- Tanking Shift: The change aims to reduce tanking, but it may simply shift the behavior away from the bottom of the standings and toward the playoff/Play-In border.
- The 16-Position Draw: This is the most radical element. Drawing for all 16 positions is a major factor; limiting the draw to just the top 4-6 would significantly reduce the advantage for borderline teams.