Falcon 9 Upper Stage Set to Collide with the Moon in 2026

A discarded upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is predicted to collide with the Moon on August 5, 2026. The event is expected to occur without posing any danger to human activity or infrastructure, according to statements from astronomers.

Predicted Impact

Independent astronomer Bill Gray of Project Pluto has calculated that the Falcon 9 upper stage, designated 2025-010D, will impact the lunar surface on August 5, 2026, at approximately 06:44 UTC.

The predicted impact site is near the Einstein crater on the near side of the Moon, close to the lunar limb and in a sunlit area. At the time of impact, the Moon is expected to be slightly more than half illuminated.

The object is traveling at an estimated speed of 1.51 miles per second (approximately 2.4 km/s), or roughly seven times the speed of sound. Gray noted that solar radiation introduces minor uncertainty in the trajectory but does not significantly alter the path.

Object Characteristics

The Falcon 9 upper stage was launched on January 15, 2025, carrying two lunar landers: Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 1 and ispace's HAKUTO-R Mission 2.

The object has been in a near-lunar orbit, tracked over 1,000 times by astronomers, and currently orbits Earth every approximately 26 days with a perigee of roughly 220,000 km and an apogee of roughly 510,000 km.

Background

• Firefly's Blue Ghost Mission 1 performed the first fully successful commercial lunar landing on March 2, 2025, at Mare Crisium.
• Japan's HAKUTO-R M2 lander (Resilience) was lost approximately 90 seconds before touchdown due to a laser rangefinder malfunction.
• Previous lunar impacts include Apollo modules (1970s), NASA's LCROSS mission (2009), and a Chang'e 5-T1 booster (2022, which created a double crater).

Visibility and Observation

Gray stated that observing the impact may be challenging. He referenced NASA's LCROSS mission, which impacted the Moon on October 9, 2009, but was not visible from Earth despite expectations.

Gray plans to observe with a small telescope but noted he has no reason to expect this impact to be brighter than LCROSS. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may later image the resulting crater.

Statements

Bill Gray stated that the impact poses no danger and noted that there is ample distance between the impact site and the nearest Chinese rovers. He added that operators of Moon-orbiting spacecraft might check if the impact trajectory aligns with their spacecraft and consider adjustments.

"The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets."

Gray expressed concern that as human activity on the Moon increases, more care should be taken in disposing of upper stages to avoid future hazards, and suggested placing upper stages in orbits that leave the Earth-Moon system.