HPV Vaccination Linked to Reductions in Cervical Cancer and Related Conditions, Studies Show

"Between 2020 and 2024, no women aged 20–24 died from cervical cancer in England, the first such period on record."

A series of peer-reviewed studies and systematic reviews indicate that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs have been associated with significant reductions in HPV infections, precancerous lesions, genital warts, invasive cervical cancer, and related mortality.

Data from England show that between 2020 and 2024, no cervical cancer deaths were recorded among vaccinated women aged 20-24, marking the first such period on record. The findings are drawn from population-level analyses and ecological studies, with researchers noting limitations regarding confounding factors and study design heterogeneity.

Key Findings from Research

Systematic Review of Global Data

A global systematic review (screening 13,549 records and including 63 studies) examined ecological, cross-sectional, and cohort studies on HPV vaccination outcomes. The review found reported reductions in multiple health endpoints:

• HPV infection: 58–100%
• Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher (CIN2+): 30–88%
• Genital warts: 60–90%
• Invasive cervical cancer: 70–88%
• Oropharyngeal cancer: reductions also noted

Settings with vaccine coverage of at least 70%, particularly when vaccination occurred before sexual debut, reported the largest reductions. School-based vaccination programs were associated with high uptake.

England-Specific Mortality Data

A study by Queen Mary University of London, funded by Cancer Research UK and published in The Lancet, analyzed population-level data linking HPV vaccination coverage with cervical cancer mortality in England. Key observations include:

• Among women who received the HPV vaccine at ages 12–13, the risk of dying from cervical cancer before age 30 was reported as near-zero.
• For vaccinated women aged 30–34, relative risk of death from cervical cancer was 63% lower compared to unvaccinated women.
• Between 2020 and 2024, no women aged 20–24 died from cervical cancer in England, the first such period on record.
• Researchers estimated that the vaccination program has prevented nearly 200 deaths from cervical cancer since its introduction in 2008.

Additional Data

• Vaccinated women (aged 12–13 at vaccination) had 87% fewer cervical cancers compared to unvaccinated women.
• England's school-based HPV vaccination program, initiated in the mid-2000s for adolescent girls, has been associated with a 90% drop in HPV infections among adolescents.

Methodology and Limitations

Study Limitations

Researchers have noted several limitations across the studies:

• Confounding factors: Improvements in cervical cancer screening and herd immunity may have contributed to observed mortality declines.
• Population-level vs. individual-level data: Findings are based on population trends, not individual patient data.
• Heterogeneity: Differences in study design, outcome definitions, and follow-up periods across the systematic review's included studies.
• Vaccination coverage data: Pre-pandemic coverage rates (close to 90% in some age groups) have declined to approximately 75% nationally and 60% in London.

Researchers' Comments

Dr. Allison Portnoy (Boston University School of Public Health), in an invited commentary in The Lancet, noted that the findings are population-level and not individual-level, and that other factors may have contributed to mortality declines.

Prof. Peter Sasieni (lead author, Queen Mary University of London) stated that high vaccine uptake is expected to prevent thousands of cervical cancer deaths, but warned that falling uptake could lead to additional preventable deaths.

Vaccination Program Context

United Kingdom

• The UK introduced HPV vaccination for girls aged 12–13 in 2008, later extended to boys.
• Uptake among some age groups reached close to 90% before the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The NHS has published a plan to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem in England by 2040.
• The Department of Health and Social Care has cited efforts including catch-up campaigns and self-testing kits for cervical screening.

Global Context

• The World Health Organization has set a target of 90% of girls vaccinated against HPV by age 15 worldwide.
• Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women globally, with high-risk HPV strains causing nearly all cases.
• The HPV-related cancer burden remains highest in low- and middle-income countries with limited vaccination and screening access.

Contrasting Example: Japan

• Japan introduced HPV vaccination in 2013 with initial coverage of approximately 70%.
• After media reports of adverse symptoms (not proven to be vaccine-caused), the government suspended active recommendations, causing coverage to drop below 1%.
• A modelling study has suggested this period of low uptake could lead to tens of thousands of additional cervical cancer cases and thousands of additional deaths.
• Japan has since reinstated its recommendation and launched catch-up campaigns.

Summary of Outcomes

Sources: Zeleke AJ et al. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2026; The Lancet study (Queen Mary University of London); Cancer Research UK; NHS England data.