Back
Science

Cervical cancer elimination timeline varies by country income level, study finds

View source

Headline: New Study Outlines Global Path to Eliminating Cervical Cancer, but Warns of Widening Inequality

By: [Agence France-Presse] (Processed)

Key Findings

A new study published in The Lancet projects that high-income countries like Canada could eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem as early as 2048. The key drivers for this achievement are high HPV vaccination coverage and effective screening programs.

However, the research, led by Marc Brisson of Université Laval and the CHU de Québec – Université Laval Research Center, delivers a stark warning: without a massive scale-up of prevention efforts, global inequalities will widen dramatically.

"Currently, cervical cancer incidence in lower-income countries is three times higher than in wealthier ones. If HPV vaccination coverage remains unchanged, the ratio could increase to 12 times by the end of the century, and up to 40 times compared to Canada."

The WHO Targets

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) established a clear definition for elimination (an incidence rate of fewer than 4 cases per 100,000 women per year) and set ambitious targets to reach it by 2030:

  1. Vaccinate 90% of girls by age 15.
  2. Screen 70% of women with a high-performance test by age 35 and again by age 45.
  3. Treat 90% of identified precancerous lesions and invasive cancers.

This study assessed the progress made toward these targets five years later.

Strategies to Reduce Inequality

The researchers modeled several scenarios, ranging from maintaining the status quo to fully achieving the WHO targets. The results identified one clear “best strategy” for reducing inequality.

The optimal approach combines achieving the WHO targets with expanding vaccination to include boys and implementing catch-up campaigns for adolescents and young adults.

Marc Brisson stated that this combined strategy "could prevent nearly 37 million cancer cases by the century's end."

For regions where large-scale screening programs are difficult to implement, the study offers a promising alternative: universal vaccination paired with strong catch-up campaigns is the most effective way to drive down incidence and prevent deaths.

The Urgency of Action

The lead author emphasized that time is of the essence. Every year of delay results in preventable infections, suffering, and loss of life.

"Delaying action leads to preventable HPV infections, cancers, and deaths," Brisson warned.

Study Authors

The research was conducted by:
Marc Brisson, Mélanie Drolet, Guillaume Gingras, Jean-François Laprise, Éléonore Chamberland, Laia Bruni, Andrée-Anne Sabourin, Élodie Bénard, Cathy Ndiaye, and Ruanne V. Barnabas.