Cuba is grappling with a profound energy and economic crisis, marked by widespread fuel shortages and daily power outages, intensified by recent U.S. pressure. These U.S. actions followed a military operation in Venezuela that led to the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, subsequently involving an oil blockade against Cuba and threats of tariffs against nations supplying fuel to the island.
Despite the escalating crisis, diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Havana have been reported, alongside international humanitarian efforts and a recent Russian oil shipment offering some temporary relief.
Context: Venezuela Operation and Initial U.S. Actions
In early January, a U.S. Delta Force operation in Caracas, Venezuela, resulted in the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Maduro reportedly faces drug trafficking and other charges in a U.S. court. The Cuban government reported that 32 Cuban nationals, identified as members of its armed forces and intelligence agencies, died while protecting Maduro, leading to two days of national mourning in Cuba. Maduro's personal security detail was reportedly composed almost entirely of Cuban bodyguards, and Cuban nationals are reported to hold various positions within Venezuela's intelligence services and military, a claim Cuba has historically denied.
Following these events, the U.S. administration confiscated sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, effectively halting all oil shipments from Venezuelan ports to Cuba. Venezuela had been Cuba's primary oil supplier, providing approximately 35,000 barrels per day. U.S. President Donald Trump commented that Cuba was "ready to fall" without direct U.S. military intervention, a prediction not clearly supported by U.S. intelligence assessments. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also issued warnings to Havana.
Concurrently, the U.S. began discussions with Caracas for a $2 billion agreement to supply Venezuelan oil to the U.S., with proceeds held in U.S. Treasury-supervised accounts. Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, reportedly agreed to open the country's oil reserves to foreign companies.
U.S. Pressure and Policy Towards Cuba
The U.S. government intensified its pressure on Cuba in late January. President Trump signed an executive order designating Cuba as a national security threat. This order established a framework for tariffs on goods from countries supplying oil to the island, citing alleged connections to Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Trump publicly declared that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" unless Cuba reached a deal with Washington.
The U.S. also reportedly seized several oil shipments en route to Cuba and sought to align regional powers with its policy to exert dominance in the Western Hemisphere, referencing the Monroe Doctrine. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Rubio, expressed a desire for a change in Cuba's government.
Cuba's Energy and Economic Crisis
These actions significantly contributed to a severe energy and economic crisis in Cuba, described as the most significant since the Cold War. The island experienced widespread fuel and electricity shortages, leading to daily blackouts, some lasting over 12 hours. Critical oil reserves were estimated to be sufficient for only 15-20 days at existing demand levels. Residents reported increasing scarcity of essential goods, food spoilage, and non-functional appliances, alongside an outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases.
The Cuban government implemented emergency measures to cope with the crisis. These included reduced office hours, limitations on fuel sales, a four-day workweek for state companies, reduced inter-province transport, closure of some tourism facilities, and shorter schooldays. Fuel was prioritized for essential services like public health, food production, and defense.
Cuba's aviation sector was significantly impacted, with the government announcing that international airlines could no longer refuel at its airports. As a result, Air Canada and WestJet Airlines suspended flights to Cuba, while other carriers, such as Air Europa, implemented refueling stops in nearby countries.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejected Trump's statements, asserting Cuba's independence and sovereignty and accusing the U.S. of aggression. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez affirmed Cuba's right to import fuel from any willing suppliers and denied claims of financial compensation for security services. The Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for "respectful and reciprocal dialogue" with the United States.
International Responses and Aid
International concern grew regarding the humanitarian situation in Cuba. The United Nations expressed concerns and reiterated its long-standing call for an end to the U.S. embargo. Russia, a historical ally, condemned the U.S. policy, with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urging an end to the blockade and reaffirming support for Cuba's sovereignty. Russia's Izvestia news outlet reported that Moscow was preparing a humanitarian fuel shipment for Cuba. Russian tourist companies also suspended package tours due to fuel unavailability.
An international convoy, "Our America Convoy to Cuba," comprising over 650 delegates from 33 countries, delivered approximately 20 tons of humanitarian aid, including medical supplies, food, solar panels, and bicycles. A flotilla of three ships from Mexico also arrived, with activists characterizing the aid as a challenge to the U.S. blockade. Brazil, China, and Chile also contributed aid shipments.
In mid-April, a Russian-flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, sanctioned by the U.S., EU, and UK, was permitted by the U.S. to deliver 730,000 barrels of oil to Cuba. President Trump stated he had "no problem" with countries supplying oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons, dismissing the notion that it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin. U.S. Southern Command indicated it was tracking the Russian vessel but did not anticipate its cargo would significantly impact Cuba's overall oil supplies, confirming no military intervention plans for Cuba. The U.S. also reportedly authorized limited fuel imports for its embassy in Havana and approved fuel sales to Cuba's private sector.
Mexico, which had become an alternative oil supplier to Cuba, temporarily paused shipments following the U.S. tariff threats, with President Claudia Sheinbaum describing it as a sovereign decision and criticizing the U.S. embargo as "very unfair."
Diplomatic Engagements and Conflicting Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. was engaged in high-level negotiations with Cuba, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and suggested a potential "friendly takeover" of the island. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel later confirmed that his government had held discussions with U.S. officials, emphasizing the need for dialogue based on equality, mutual respect for political systems, and sovereignty, without pressure or preconditions.
However, some Cuban and U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, denied that any high-level negotiations were taking place, suggesting U.S. strategy might involve attributing any diplomatic failure to Cuban "intransigence."
Reports circulated of a secret meeting in late February between Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, and U.S. officials in St. Kitts and Nevis. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that the nature, structure, and members of the Cuban government are not subjects for negotiation. The U.S. reportedly requested Díaz-Canel's resignation as a condition for progress in talks, a demand rejected by Cuba.
FBI officials were scheduled to visit Cuba as part of ongoing information sharing regarding a shooting incident in Cuban waters involving a Florida-flagged boat. Six Cubans from the U.S. were charged with terrorism after an alleged shootout resulted in fatalities.
Protests and Broader Regional Relations
Amidst the deepening crisis, protests occurred in central Cuba, with an office of the ruling Communist Party being vandalized in Moron. Protesters reportedly shouted "liberty," threw rocks, and burned documents. President Díaz-Canel acknowledged public discontent but stated that violence would "never be comprehensible, justified or admitted." Police detained five individuals.
Cuba also faced increased regional pressure, with Ecuador declaring the Cuban ambassador persona non grata. Honduras, Jamaica, Guatemala, and the Bahamas canceled or re-evaluated medical cooperation agreements with Cuba.
Future Outlook
Cuba's government is preparing the population for continued hardships, while also working to improve relations by releasing political prisoners, reducing restrictions on private enterprise, and engaging with the Cuban diaspora for investment. Cuba aims to increase national crude production to 50% of domestic demand by 2026 and double solar energy output to cover 20% of demand.
The arrival of humanitarian aid and the Russian oil shipment offer short-term relief, but the long-term resolution of Cuba's energy and economic crises remains uncertain amid ongoing U.S. sanctions.