"The Australian economy is already in a weakened state, possibly in a recession. Further rate hikes could cause an unnecessary recession." — Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, and Julian McCrann

Key Economists Urge RBA to Halt Rate Hikes Amid Recession Fears

Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, and Julian McCrann of Roy Morgan have formally called on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to pause its series of interest rate increases. Their warning is stark: the Australian economy is already fragile, and pushing rates higher risks triggering an entirely avoidable recession.

Confidence Plummets to Historic Lows

The economists point to recent, dramatic declines in both consumer and business confidence as evidence of the economy's weakened state. These metrics have sunk to levels rarely seen in Australian history.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating currently sits at 67.8 — more than 30 points below the neutral benchmark of 100. This figure represents the seventh lowest reading on record.

Even more alarming, the all-time low of 58.8 was recorded just a few weeks prior. In a striking pattern, six of the seven lowest historical readings have occurred within the last six weeks alone, underscoring the rapid and severe deterioration in sentiment.