Shell Crushes Earnings Estimates Amid Gulf Crisis
LONDON — British energy giant Shell reported adjusted earnings of $6.92 billion for the first quarter of 2026, significantly outperforming market expectations.
The result exceeded both the LSEG-compiled analyst consensus of $6.1 billion and the company's own forecast of $6.36 billion.
Earnings Performance
The Q1 2026 figures represent a dramatic surge in profitability. Shell's adjusted earnings were $5.58 billion in the first quarter of 2025 and $3.26 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The $6.92 billion result is more than double the previous quarter’s performance and represents a 24% increase year-on-year.
Shareholder Returns
Despite the earnings windfall, Shell announced a reduction in its share buyback program to $3 billion, down from $3.5 billion in the prior quarter. However, the company increased its dividend by 5%, to $0.3906 per share.
Market Context
The earnings report follows the start of U.S.- and Israeli-led military action against Iran on February 28, 2026. The conflict triggered severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a situation the International Energy Agency described as "the most significant energy security threat in history."
Following these events, oil and gas prices surged dramatically. Brent crude oil reached $126 per barrel before declining to approximately $100 per barrel amid market speculation over a potential peace deal.
Company and Public Statements
Shell CEO Wael Sawan attributed the results to "operational performance in a quarter marked by unprecedented disruption in global energy markets." Shell CFO Sinead Gorman stated that the company understands how energy prices affect people and businesses.
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, criticized Shell's profits while noting that households face rising energy costs. Meanwhile, Danny Gross, a climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, advocated for a strengthened windfall tax and increased investment in renewable energy.