Alito’s Voter Turnout Claim Under Scrutiny

In a majority opinion gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, Justice Samuel Alito claimed that Black voter turnout exceeded white voter turnout in two of the five most recent presidential elections in Louisiana and nationwide.

Key Findings

The claim was copied from a Department of Justice (DoJ) amicus brief. The DoJ calculated turnout as a proportion of the total voting age population (VAP), a methodology that includes non-citizens, people with felony convictions, and others ineligible to vote.

The Guardian's review found that using the citizen voting age population (CVAP), Black turnout exceeded white turnout in Louisiana only in 2012, not in 2016 as Alito stated.

Using registered voters as the denominator (Louisiana Secretary of State's method), Black turnout did not exceed white turnout in any of the last five presidential elections in Louisiana.

Nationally, the turnout gap has widened in recent elections; Black turnout lagged white turnout in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Case Background

The case concerned Louisiana's congressional map. Alito's argument was that the kind of discrimination that once necessitated the Voting Rights Act no longer exists.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 initially led to large increases in Black voter registration and turnout. After the Supreme Court's 2013 Shelby County v. Holder decision, which struck down preclearance requirements, the racial turnout gap widened.

Expert Statements

Michael McDonald (University of Florida political scientist): The DoJ's VAP approach is "misleading" because it includes ineligible voters; it "manipulate[s] the numbers" in favor of the government's interest.

McDonald also said the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, on which the DoJ analysis was based, produces "misleading" turnout statistics.

Kevin Morris (Brennan Center for Justice): "In zero out of the last three presidential elections, did Black turnout come anywhere close to parity." He called Alito's claim "simply not factual."

Christopher Warshaw (Georgetown University): Alito and the DoJ are "cherry picking a particular year, cherry picking a particular method, and ignoring this long term more concerning trend."

Kareem Crayton (Brennan Center): It is "a bit of a ruse" to argue the Voting Rights Act is no longer needed because disparities decreased.

Methodology Questions

The DoJ spokesperson acknowledged using voting age population instead of citizen voting age population, but gave no reason for that choice. The Supreme Court spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Conclusion

Alito's claim that Black voter turnout exceeded white turnout in two of the last five presidential elections in Louisiana is not supported when using the standard citizen voting age population or registered voter methodologies. The national claim also does not reflect the more recent trend of a widening turnout gap.