Australia’s Beef Exports to the US Surge Amid Record Prices and Shrinking Herds
Beef demand right now is absolutely incredible by any measure.
— Brett Stuart, Global Agritrends
Record Exports to the US
Australia exported 146,951 tonnes of beef to the United States in the first four months of 2025. This represents a 13% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by strong demand and tightening supply in the American market.
Slaughter Rates Climbing
Nearly 500,000 head of cattle were slaughtered in Australia in the three weeks leading up to the report. Dry conditions in New South Wales and Queensland have prompted increased cattle sell-offs. Despite this, prices have remained firm due to robust export demand from both the US and China, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) .
US Herd Shrinkage Accelerates
In the US, cow and bull slaughter in the four weeks ending May 2 was 6% lower than a year ago and a staggering 25% lower than two years ago. The US cattle herd continues to decline due to ongoing drought conditions, with further contraction expected through 2025.
The low herd size ... can be attributed to a variety of factors. The biggest one from our perspective is the radical left's ongoing assault against ranching as a way of life.
— US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins
Imports Rise to Fill the Gap
The US imported more than 600,000 tonnes of beef in 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase. Key contributors to this growth include:
- Brazil: +39%
- Mexico: +22%
- Australia: +13%
Market Paradox: Profits for Ranchers, Losses for Packers
Despite record-high beef prices and strong demand across all age groups, the market is experiencing a structural imbalance. Tyson Foods reported an operating loss of approximately $200 million in its beef business for the latest quarter. Meanwhile, cattle ranchers are reportedly making large profits.
Industry Concentration in Focus
Secretary Rollins noted that four companies — JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef — control roughly 85% of the cattle processing market. However, analyst Brett Stuart of Global Agritrends cautioned that blaming meat processors for high prices is "misguided," noting that packers are the only segment currently losing money.