Regional Peace Deal Challenged as M23 Rebels Capture Uvira

Recent developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) have complicated efforts to establish regional peace, following the seizure of Uvira by M23 rebels. This occurred shortly after a peace agreement between DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame was signed in Washington, an accord that then-US President Donald Trump had described as "historic."

US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated that Rwanda is moving the Great Lakes region towards war. The M23 rebel group declared it had "fully liberated" the strategic city of Uvira. The US and European powers have alleged Rwandan backing for the M23 offensive, with UN experts previously noting Rwanda's significant influence over the rebel force's operations. Rwanda has denied these allegations, though its representation in Washington was seen as acknowledging its regional influence. The M23 was not a signatory to the Washington deal, instead participating in a separate peace process facilitated by Qatar.

M23's Strategic Move on Uvira

Professor Jason Stearns, a political scientist specializing in the region, suggested to the BBC that the M23's objective was to gain leverage in negotiations, while the Rwandan government perceived a lack of trustworthiness from President Tshisekedi. Stearns observed that the Uvira assault appeared to contradict ongoing negotiations and potentially challenge the US government's efforts.

Bram Verelst, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), indicated that the assault might aim to compel Burundi to withdraw troops positioned in eastern DR Congo to support the Congolese army against M23 and Rwanda. Uvira, located 27km from Burundi's capital, Bujumbura, holds strategic importance as a supply route and entry point for Burundian troops into eastern DR Congo. Verelst noted that this route has been cut, and some Burundian troops appear to be withdrawing.

Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, highlighted Uvira's role as the DR Congo government's primary military hub in South Kivu. Ford predicted the M23 would likely establish an administration in Uvira and utilize its military gains as a bargaining tool in future peace discussions. The DR Congo government has not publicly acknowledged the military setback but has expressed concern over the "risk of regional conflagration."

Implications for Burundi

Burundi has historically aligned with DR Congo due to shared animosity towards Rwanda, with both nations accusing each other of supporting rebel groups. Both countries also share ethnic compositions of Tutsi and Hutu communities.

Burundi's government expressed concerns that an M23 consolidation in South Kivu could bolster the Burundian rebel group Red Tabara, which is primarily composed of Tutsis and has previously attacked Burundi. The M23 stated its objectives were peace, population protection, state rebuilding in DR Congo, and regional stability, asserting no territorial ambitions beyond national borders.

Burundi has closed its border with DR Congo but permits entry for individuals after security checks. Aid agencies report approximately 50,000 people have sought refuge in Burundi in the past week. Despite resistance from Burundian and Congolese forces, Uvira reportedly fell "without much fighting." The loss of Uvira could impact Burundi's economy, which relies on eastern DR Congo for foreign currency and fuel.

M23's Advance and Military Capabilities

The M23 initiated a significant advance earlier this year, capturing Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, followed by Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu. The move on Uvira occurred after M23 forces breached the defense lines of the DR Congo army, allied militias, and Burundian troops.

Professor Stearns estimated the M23's fighting force to be over 10,000, suggesting a potential "influx" of Rwandan troops for the Uvira offensive. He attributed M23's successes to the discipline of the Rwandan army, which he stated was superior to sheer manpower. Both sides have utilized drone technology, though Rwandan forces reportedly employed it more effectively.

Status of the Peace Process

The peace process appears to be in jeopardy. US Ambassador Mike Waltz attributed the recent fighting to Rwanda. A joint statement from the US, EU, and eight European governments called for an immediate halt to "offensive operations" by both M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), and for Rwandan troops to withdraw from eastern DR Congo.

Professor Stearns noted that policy experts were reportedly perplexed by the timing of the Uvira capture, which occurred concurrently with the signing of the peace deal in Washington. Rwanda's foreign ministry denied responsibility for ceasefire violations and fighting, instead accusing the DR Congo and Burundian armies of bombing Rwandan border villages and massing troops in South Kivu. Rwanda stated that DR Congo was "never ready to commit to peace," implying President Tshisekedi's participation in Washington was coerced. The DR Congo government similarly accused President Kagame of intentionally abandoning the Washington Accord and undermining US peace efforts.

Prospects for the Deal

Professor Stearns assessed the US-led peace process as being on a "troubled path." The deal's success relied on DR Congo's army disarming the FDLR militia, which Rwanda considers a threat due to its involvement in the 1994 genocide. Stearns expressed skepticism about the DR Congo army's current capacity to undertake such an operation. The agreement also envisioned economic cooperation between DR Congo and Rwanda in areas like hydro-electric power, mining, and infrastructure, with potential US investment, which Stearns deemed unlikely while fighting persists and Rwandan troops remain.

Separately, the parallel peace process in Doha, mediated by Qatar between the M23 and DR Congo, is also reportedly on hold following the M23 offensive.

Tshisekedi's Position

Professor Stearns indicated that President Tshisekedi faces significant public pressure due to unfulfilled promises to end conflict in the east, and potential pressure from parts of the army following arrests of generals and military setbacks. Tshisekedi is reportedly relying on US diplomatic pressure to influence Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23. Stearns concluded that the Congolese army would find it challenging to mount a response, leaving the situation largely dependent on peace brokers like the US and Qatar, and their willingness to invest political capital in resolving the conflict.