DR Congo Conflict: M23 Rebels Capture Uvira After Washington Peace Accord
The M23 rebel group has announced the "full liberation" of Uvira, a strategic city in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo). This development occurred just over a week after a peace agreement, brokered in Washington, aimed to end the decades-long conflict in the Great Lakes region.
US President Donald Trump had described the deal between DR Congo's President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame as "historic." However, the M23, which was not a signatory to this accord, initiated an offensive that the US and European powers attribute to Rwandan backing. Rwanda denies these allegations, while UN experts have previously accused Rwanda of exercising "de facto control" over M23 operations. The M23 has also been involved in a separate peace process led by Qatar.
Strategic Motivations for Uvira's Seizure
Experts suggest various reasons for the M23's current offensive:
- Leverage in Negotiations: Professor Jason Stearns, a political scientist specializing in the region, indicated that M23 circles believe the group requires greater leverage in ongoing negotiations.
- Mistrust: Stearns also noted a perception within the Rwandan government that President Tshisekedi is untrustworthy. He commented that the assault on Uvira contradicts ongoing negotiations.
- Burundian Troop Withdrawal: Bram Verelst of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) suggested the offensive might be an attempt to compel Burundi to withdraw its estimated 10,000 troops from eastern DR Congo. Uvira, located 27km from Burundi's capital Bujumbura, is a critical access point for Burundian forces and supplies. Initial reports indicate some Burundian troops are withdrawing.
- Bargaining Chip: Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst, identified Uvira as the DR Congo government's primary military hub in South Kivu. He predicted the M23 would establish a parallel administration in the city and utilize military gains as leverage in future peace talks.
The DR Congo government has not publicly acknowledged the military setback but has cited a "proven risk of regional conflagration."
Impact on Burundi
Burundi, an ally of DR Congo with strained relations with Rwanda, views the M23's presence in South Kivu as a potential strengthening of the Burundian rebel group Red Tabara, which operates from South Kivu and has previously attacked Burundi. Both Burundi and Rwanda accuse each other of supporting rebel factions.
The M23 has stated its objectives are "peace, the protection of the population, the rebuilding of the state in DR Congo, as well as the stability of the Great Lakes region," denying any ambitions beyond DR Congo's borders.
Burundi has closed its border with DR Congo, though it continues to allow people to cross after security checks. Aid agencies report approximately 50,000 people have fled into Burundi in the past week. The fall of Uvira, which occurred with minimal fighting despite resistance from Burundian and Congolese forces, is anticipated to impact Burundi's economy, which has relied on eastern DR Congo for foreign currency and fuel.
M23's Military Capabilities
The M23 previously captured Goma (North Kivu) and Bukavu (South Kivu) earlier this year. Professor Stearns estimated the M23's fighting force to exceed 10,000, suggesting a likely "influx" of Rwandan troops supported the recent Uvira offensive. He attributed the M23's combat effectiveness to the discipline of the Rwandan army. Both sides have employed drone technology, with Rwanda reportedly utilizing it to greater effect.
Challenges to the Peace Process
The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated that Rwanda is leading the region toward "more instability and toward war" instead of peace. A joint statement by the US, EU, and eight European governments called for an immediate halt to "offensive operations" by the M23 and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), and for Rwandan troops to withdraw from eastern DR Congo.
Rwanda's foreign ministry denied responsibility for ceasefire violations, accusing the DR Congo and Burundian armies of bombing Rwandan border villages and Burundi of amassing nearly 20,000 troops in South Kivu. Rwanda asserted that DR Congo was "never ready to commit to peace" and that President Tshisekedi appeared "as if he had been forced to sign" the Washington accord. The DR Congo government similarly accused President Kagame of a "deliberate choice" to abandon the accord.
Professor Stearns described the US-led peace process as being on a "troubled path." Its success was contingent on the DR Congo army disarming the FDLR militia group, which Rwanda perceives as a threat. Stearns expressed skepticism about the DR Congo army undertaking such an operation currently. Economic cooperation, intended to attract US investment, is also deemed unlikely given the ongoing conflict. The parallel peace process in Doha is also reportedly on hold.
Tshisekedi's Position
President Tshisekedi faces significant public pressure regarding his unfulfilled commitments to end the conflict in the east. He may also be under pressure from segments of the army, following arrests of generals and military setbacks. Tshisekedi is reportedly relying on US diplomatic pressure on Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23. Stearns assessed that the Congolese army would find it "very difficult... to muster a response," concluding that the situation now rests with peace brokers to determine their commitment to resolving the conflict.