Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Show Strength in Republican-Leaning States
A series of polls indicate that Democratic gubernatorial candidates are performing competitively in states that have recently favored Republican candidates at the presidential level.
Iowa
An Echelon Insights poll for NetChoice shows Democratic nominee Rob Sand with 51% support among likely voters, compared to Republican Randy Feenstra's 39%.
39% of voters said they would "definitely" vote for Sand, while 24% said the same for Feenstra.
A March poll by GBAO found Sand leading Feenstra by 8 points (50% to 42%).
Key context: President Trump's approval rating in Iowa is 14 points underwater, according to The Economist. Governor Kim Reynolds' approval rating is now net-negative, per Morning Consult.
Alaska
A poll from the Alaska Survey Center shows Democrat Tom Begich winning with nearly 54% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
A previous poll in October 2023 showed him winning just over 50%.
Notable: No Democratic gubernatorial candidate has won more than 45% of the vote in Alaska since 1998.
Georgia
An Echelon Insights/NetChoice poll shows Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leading both Republican front-runners — Burt Jones and Rick Jackson — by 6 points each.
Context: No Democrat has won a top executive office in Georgia since 2006.
Ohio
A poll by Echelon Insights/NetChoice shows Republican Vivek Ramaswamy leading Democrat Amy Acton by 5 points.
However, two other recent polls show the race as a virtual tie.
Florida
Recent surveys show Democratic candidates Jerry Demings and David Jolly trailing Republican candidate Byron Donalds by single digits — a competitive margin in a state that has trended heavily Republican in recent cycles.
National Trends
- President Trump's tariffs have affected Iowa's soybean exports to China.
- A YouGov/Economist poll found that 63% of Americans disapprove of Trump's passport design, while 14% approve.
In a hypothetical fight between President Trump and an 8-year-old boy, 45% said Trump would win, 31% said the boy, and 23% were unsure.
In a hypothetical fight between Trump and the average American, 10% said Trump would win, while 66% said the average American would win.