A modeling study published in Nature Communications estimates that diabetes may reduce global economic output by 5.177 trillion international dollars between 2021 and 2050, equivalent to 0.12% of projected global GDP.
Key Findings
- The per capita economic loss is estimated at $591.
- Diabetes-related disability and morbidity account for the majority of losses.
- Regional variation exists: high-income countries face larger absolute losses, while low- and middle-income countries bear a higher disease burden (81% of global disability-adjusted life years) but lower financial losses in dollar terms.
- The United States, China, and India are projected to have the largest absolute losses. Relative to GDP, Kuwait, the US, and South Korea rank highest. Guyana, the US, and Singapore have the highest per capita losses.
Methodology
Researchers compared two scenarios: status quo (current trends) and counterfactual (diabetes eliminated at no cost). The cumulative GDP difference indicates burden. Data sources included GBD 2021, ILO, PWT, World Bank, and UN. Estimates are in 2017 international dollars.
Limitations
The model did not account for caregiver workforce changes, missing data for 64 countries were interpolated, treatment costs were partly extrapolated from high-income countries, and uncertainty from GBD inputs persists.
Policy Implications
Reducing diabetes burden by 20% by 2050 could yield about $190 billion in global gains. The study suggests increased investment in prevention and treatment to improve health and economies.