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Global Obesity Trends Show Mixed Patterns: Increases in Many Nations, Plateaus in Some High-Income Countries

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A World Divided: The Complex Picture of Global Obesity

While obesity rates have increased in nearly all countries over the past several decades, a significant divergence has emerged. Many high-income nations are experiencing a slowdown or plateau, while rates continue to rise in low- and middle-income countries.

Global Trends (1980–2024)

A landmark study published in Nature analyzed data from 4,050 population-based studies involving 232 million participants across 44 years.

Key Findings

The Overall Picture: Obesity prevalence increased in almost all countries over the study period.

Diverging Trends: Growth has slowed in many high-income nations, with some reaching a plateau. Among children and adolescents, slowdowns began as early as the 1990s in Denmark, and rates had stabilized in most high-income countries by the mid-2000s.

Adult Obesity Prevalence in 2024 (selected countries):

  • United States: 40–43%
  • United Kingdom: 27–30%
  • Finland: 24–25%
  • Germany: 20–23%
  • France: 11–12%

Child and Adolescent Plateaus: Obesity rates in children and adolescents have plateaued in several high-income nations, including the UK (10–12%), US (20–23%), Germany (7–12%), and Japan (3–7%).

Rising Rates Elsewhere: Obesity continues to rise in many low- and middle-income countries, with rates in some cases accelerating.

England: A Post-Pandemic Surge

A separate study published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology analyzed NHS England electronic health records of nearly 55 million adults from November 2019 to April 2025. Researchers from the University of Cambridge, the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, and The George Institute for Global Health conducted the analysis.

In England, the recorded prevalence of obesity in adults increased from 26.3% in 2019 to 30.3% in 2025. The rate of new obesity diagnoses rose by 4% over the study period compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Age Disparities: The Youngest Hit Hardest

The largest increases in new cases were observed among younger adults:

  • Adults aged 30–39: Increase of approximately 19–20%
  • Adults aged 20–29: Increase of approximately 16%
  • Adults aged 60–79: A decrease in new case rates was observed

Socioeconomic Disparities: A Widening Gap

The gap between the most and least deprived groups has widened significantly:

  • New obesity case rates were 35% higher among the most deprived compared to the least deprived
  • For women, this gap was 54%
  • For Asian women, the gap was a staggering 94% higher

Geographic Disparities: A Tale of Two Englands

Regional variation in obesity prevalence is substantial, with larger increases in less affluent areas:

  • Prevalence ranged from approximately 4% among young, affluent White men to 66% among older, socioeconomically deprived Black women
  • In parts of northeast England, prevalence reached approximately 48% — nearly six times higher than the 8.5% seen in affluent parts of central London

Weight-Loss Drugs: An Uneven Rollout

The study did not find an obvious reduction in obesity associated with the introduction of GLP-1 receptor agonists within the study period. Reports indicate that approximately 90% of users in the UK pay privately, with monthly costs ranging from £130 to £350.

An analysis by the Health Foundation found that people in less deprived areas are more than twice as likely to be taking these drugs as people in the most deprived areas, per person with obesity. NHS access is currently rationed to those with the most urgent medical need.

Study Context and Methodology

  • Researchers used person-level electronic health records with direct identifiers removed, accessed within NHS England's Secure Data Environment
  • Obesity was defined as a recorded BMI of 30 or above or a clinician's diagnosis
  • The study's authors noted that reduced healthcare access during the COVID-19 pandemic likely caused a temporary decline in recorded diagnoses, not a real decrease in prevalence
  • The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, and other research institutions

Policy Context in the UK

Since January, the UK government has implemented new regulations that include:

  • Banning junk food advertisements online and on television before 9pm
  • Banning "buy one, get one free" deals on unhealthy food