U.S. Population Growth Slows, Long-Term Projections Revised Downward
The United States is experiencing a notable slowdown in its population growth, prompting downward revisions in long-term projections. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has forecasted a slower increase in the U.S. population over the next decade compared to previous estimates. This trend is attributed to a combination of shifts in immigration patterns and a decrease in domestic birth rates.
Recent Population Trends
According to an annual estimate from the Census Bureau, the national population increased by 1.8 million people during the 12 months ending in June. This represents approximately half the growth rate observed in the preceding year. As of last July, the estimated U.S. population stood at 341.8 million. This slowdown in population growth was a nationwide phenomenon.
Long-Term Outlook
The CBO's forecast, released on Wednesday, projects the U.S. population to grow from 349 million this year to 357 million by 2035.
This revised projection represents a reduction of 7 million people over the next decade compared to the CBO's earlier estimates.
Contributing Factors: Immigration
Changes in immigration patterns are identified as a primary factor in both recent slowdowns and revised long-term projections.
The Census Bureau reported that the foreign-born population increased by 1.3 million during the 12 months ending in June. This figure is 52% lower than the increase observed in the previous 12-month period. This reduction is attributed to fewer individuals entering the U.S. through legal channels and the departure of some individuals living in the country without authorization.
The CBO's revised forecast attributes slowed growth to governmental immigration enforcement measures. While the number of authorized green card holders is anticipated to rise over the next decade, a reduction in the admission of foreign students is projected for 2025. Census forecasters also project that if current trends persist, net immigration could decrease by an additional one million people in the current year.
Contributing Factors: Declining Birth Rates
A decrease in U.S. birth rates is also a significant contributor to the slower population growth.
The natural increase (births exceeding deaths) in the native-born population was approximately 0.5 million in the 12 months ending in June. This is less than half the natural increase recorded in years prior to the pandemic.
The CBO estimates that by 2030, the number of annual births in the U.S. will be lower than the number of deaths.
This suggests that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to decline at that point. Foreign-born women, on average, have more children than women born in the U.S., indicating a connection between immigration levels and overall birth rate trends.
Economic Implications
The demographic outlook is a key component of the CBO's annual economic forecast, which is scheduled for release next month. Analysts note that immigrants have contributed to workforce growth in recent years and also influence economic demand. The Trump administration previously suggested that increased deportations impacted rental costs in areas with substantial foreign-born populations.
Forecasting Uncertainties
Analysts emphasize that long-term projections for births, deaths, and immigration contain inherent uncertainties. Minor shifts in these variables could lead to significant changes in population figures over time.