Lithuania is experiencing significant disruptions to its airspace due to large white balloons originating from Belarus, carrying contraband cigarettes. The incidents have led to the closure of Vilnius's main airport airspace on 15 occasions over the past 10 weeks, affecting thousands of travelers and causing delays. One closure extended for 11 hours.
Lithuanian Government Response and Allegations
The Lithuanian government has declared an emergency situation in response to the increased frequency of these incidents since October. Officials characterize the balloons as a component of "hybrid warfare" orchestrated by Belarus, a close ally of Russia.
- Official Statements: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys stated that while the activity began as organized crime, Belarus has a history of "instrumentalizing" such activities to impact neighboring countries. He highlighted that the balloons' launch points appear designed to target Lithuania's main airport, located 30km (19 miles) from the border, rather than remote smuggling routes. Budrys suggested this represents a form of political leverage by Belarus, affecting military and security fields.
- Historical Context: Lithuanian officials reference a 2021 crisis where migrants were reportedly facilitated across the border into Lithuania and Poland from Belarus.
- Tactical Shift: Vilmantas Vitkauskas, who directs Lithuania's crisis management center, noted a change in tactics. Previously, smugglers might send balloon clusters; now, one or two balloons are dispatched every 30 minutes, directly towards the airport. Vitkauskas suggests that if Belarus intended to stop these operations, it could, implying state involvement.
- Alleged Motivation: Minister Budrys posited that Belarus seeks to attract political attention and influence policy changes towards the regime, including ending its international isolation and lifting sanctions. Sanctions were imposed following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown, and further tightened after Belarus's role in Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Belarusian Position
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed claims of hybrid warfare as "nonsense," attributing the balloon activity to "bandit" smugglers adapting to new border security measures for profit.
Operational Measures and Economic Impact
Lithuania has implemented various measures to address the situation:
- Border Patrols: Military police conduct nightly patrols in the border zone, setting up mobile checkpoints and conducting random vehicle searches for individuals involved in smuggling networks.
- Interception Challenges: Authorities report that the balloons fly at altitudes that render shooting them down with existing air defenses either unsafe or economically unfeasible.
- Incentive Program: The government has offered a €1m (£870,000) reward to any firm that can develop an effective interception method.
- Tracking and Enforcement: Military radar is used to track the balloons, and teams attempt to apprehend smugglers at cargo drop-off points. New criminal charges are being prepared, potentially including prison sentences for acts of sabotage against civil aviation.
The disruptions have led to economic consequences for the aviation sector. Simonas Bartkus, CEO of Vilnius airport, estimated a revenue loss of €2m for affected businesses by the end of the year. One airline has relocated charter flights to Lithuania's second city, and another has reduced evening services to Vilnius.
Diplomatic Context
The United States recently agreed to lift some sanctions on Belarus following the release of 123 prisoners, including opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova. However, Minister Budrys advocates for an expansion of the European Union's sanctions regime against Belarus to include activities deemed as hybrid attacks against the EU, similar to measures taken against Russia.