ASX 200 Shows Weekly Gains; Market Reacts to Geopolitical Developments and Corporate Updates

S&P/ASX 200 Steady as Oil Volatility and Corporate News Drive Markets

The S&P/ASX 200 Index recorded gains over the past week, closing at 8,955 points on Thursday. Market movements were influenced by international market performance, commodity price fluctuations driven by geopolitical events, and company-specific announcements.

The index rose 2.55% on Wednesday following a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, before edging 0.25% lower on Thursday.

Market Performance

The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 2.55% to 8,951.8 points on Wednesday. Analysts attributed the broad rally to a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which lowered oil prices and eased concerns about interest rate hikes.

The index declined 0.25% to 8,955 points on Thursday. SPI futures indicate the ASX 200 is expected to open 12 points, or 0.15%, lower on Friday.

On Wall Street on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.25%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.35%.

Commodity Price Movements

• Wednesday: Oil prices declined significantly following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. WTI crude fell 14.6% to US$96.42 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 12% to US$96.19 per barrel.
• Thursday: Oil prices rebounded. WTI crude increased 2.1% to US$93.19 per barrel, and Brent crude increased 1.7% to US$89.65 per barrel.

• Wednesday: Gold futures rose 1.3% to US$4,748.1 per ounce, attributed to expectations that lower oil prices could reduce the need for aggressive interest rate hikes.
• Thursday: Gold futures decreased 0.25% to US$4,810.9 per ounce.

Corporate Updates

Several ASX 200 companies issued dividends on Thursday, including:

• CSL Ltd: $1.81 per share
• Capricorn Metals Ltd
• Qube Holdings Ltd
• Brambles Ltd
• SGH Ltd
• Atlas Arteria Group
• NRW Holdings Limited

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)
Bell Potter maintained a "hold" rating on CSL shares, adjusting its price target from $175.00 to $155.00. The broker noted that CSL's current share price reflects a de-rated PE multiple of approximately 15x its FY27 NPAT forecast, aligning it with global biopharma peers. However, CSL's projected three-year revenue compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5% is lower than the average of over 4% for global counterparts.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)
Bell Potter maintained a "buy" rating and a $19.00 price target for Telix Pharmaceuticals following its first-quarter sales update. The broker cited progress on multiple pipeline products and anticipated short-term news flow, including FDA acceptance of the resubmitted NDA for Pixclara and an amendment to the IND for TLX591. FY26 EBITDA projections were increased by approximately US$21 million to US$55.3 million.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)
Bell Potter upgraded Lynas shares from a "sell" to a "hold" rating, setting a new price target of $19.00, up from $11.60. The broker noted that recent announcements protect a significant portion of revenue and earnings, mitigating the impact of potential price volatility from future supply increases.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)
Zip Co is scheduled to release its third-quarter update. According to a note from Citi, analysts expect Zip to report an improved US net transaction margin.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)
Bell Potter has retained a buy rating and a $30.00 price target on Netwealth shares following the company's quarterly update.

Strike Energy Ltd (ASX: STX)
Bell Potter issued a speculative buy rating for Strike Energy shares, setting a price target of 15 cents, implying a potential upside of over 40% from current levels. The rating follows the Western Australian Economic Regulation Authority's finalization of the Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price for the 2028/29 capacity year at $488,500/MW per year, which could generate approximately $42 million in revenues from the South Erregulla project.

Previous Week's Performance

In the prior week, the ASX 200 showed mixed performance:

Monday: The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.4% to 8,926 points. The index was expected to open 122 points, or 1.35%, higher on Tuesday following gains on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones increased 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%.

Tuesday: The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.5% to 8,970.8 points. The index was expected to open 47 points, or 0.5%, higher on Wednesday, following gains on Wall Street where the Dow Jones rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.95%.

Company developments during the previous week included:

• Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd: Announced a US$550 million convertible notes offering. Managing Director and CEO Dr. Christian Behrenbruch stated the offering represents "a proactive approach to capital management" and provides "cost effective financing."
• Mineral Resources Ltd: Morgans reduced its rating from "buy" to "accumulate" and lowered its price target from $68.00 to $67.00, citing updated forecasts reflecting weather impacts and increased cost assumptions.
• Pro Medicus Ltd: Bell Potter maintained a buy rating and $226.00 price target following a contract renewal announcement.
• A2 Milk Company Ltd: Shares declined 13% following a guidance downgrade. Bell Potter maintained a hold rating and reduced its price target from $9.55 to $8.35.

Wednesday: The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1% to 8,978.7 points. The index was expected to open flat on Thursday. In late US trading, the Dow Jones was down 0.25%, the S&P 500 was up 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.2%.

Analyst recommendations during this period included:

• Evolution Mining Ltd: Bell Potter retained a buy rating with a $16.45 price target, stating the company offers exposure to gold and copper through assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions.
• Nufarm Ltd: Bell Potter issued a buy rating with a $3.60 price target, following a trading update indicating 16-19% year-over-year growth in first-half 2026 EBITDA.