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Australian Markets Fluctuate Amidst Commodity Shifts, Company Earnings, and Economic Outlooks

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Australian Share Market: Performance, Projections, and Influences

The Australian share market, as represented by the S&P/ASX 200 Index, experienced varied daily movements and future projections across multiple sessions. Influences included mixed performances on Wall Street, shifts in global oil and gold prices driven by various geopolitical and economic factors, and a series of company earnings reports, strategic announcements, and analyst recommendations. Economic events such as the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and upcoming employment data also contributed to market sentiment.

Australian Market Performance and Outlook

Daily Index Movements

  • Monday: Declined by 0.4% to 8,583.4 points.
  • Monday (Another report): Declined by 0.65% to 8,461 points.
  • Monday (Another report): Experienced a 1% decline, closing at 8,778.6 points.
  • Monday (Another report): Closed at 8,728.6 points.
  • Monday (Another report): Increased by 0.07% to 8,923.6 at midday.
  • Monday (Another report): Gained 0.22 percent, adding 19.5 points to close at 8937.1.
  • Tuesday: Increased by 0.55% to 8,808.5 points.
  • Tuesday (Another report): Concluded with a 0.65% decline, closing at 8,815.9 points.
  • Tuesday (Another report): Increased by 0.9% to 8,857.1 points.
  • Wednesday: Increased by 0.6% to 8,743.5 points.
  • Wednesday (Another report): Closed higher, recording a 0.15% increase to 8,695.6 points.
  • Thursday: Increased by 0.9% to 9,086.2 points.
  • Thursday (Another report): Closed at 8,927.5 points.
  • Friday: Concluded the week with a 0.1% decrease to 8,516.3 points.
  • Friday (Another report): Experienced a slight decline, closing at 8,717.8 points.
  • Friday (Previous week): Concluded with a 0.1% increase, reaching 8,860.1 points.
  • Afternoon Trade (Unspecified): Recorded a gain of 0.8%, reaching 9,088.5 points.
  • By 11:00am AEDT (Unspecified): Recorded a 0.2% gain.

SPI Futures Projections

  • Thursday: Projected to open 0.55% (49 points) lower, following mixed Wall Street performance.
  • Thursday (Another report): Projected to open marginally lower, with a 3-point decrease.
  • Friday: Projected to open 0.25% (22 points) higher, despite Wall Street declines.
  • Friday (Another report): Projected to open 52 points (0.55%) lower.
  • Friday (Another report): Anticipated to open 4 points higher.
  • Monday: Projected to open 29 points (0.35%) higher, following positive Wall Street activity.
  • Monday (Another report): Projected to start the week with a decline, indicating a 65-point (0.75%) lower open.
  • Tuesday: Projected to open 0.5% higher, with a 43-point increase, following positive US market performance.
  • Tuesday (Another report): Anticipated to reflect a strong Wall Street close, with a potential opening increase of 35 points (0.4%).
  • Tuesday (Another report): Anticipated to rebound, with an 81-point (0.95%) higher open.
  • Tuesday (Another report): Anticipated to open higher, with a potential 0.7% rise.
  • Wednesday: Projected for a relatively flat session, with an expected opening of 2 points higher.
  • Wednesday (Another report): Expected to open 0.7% (59 points) lower.
  • Wednesday (Another report): Projected to open 0.65% lower, a 58-point decrease.

Wall Street Performance (Influencing ASX Outlook)

  • Late U.S. trading (before Thursday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones declined 0.6%, S&P 500 fell 0.1%, Nasdaq gained 0.1%.
  • Late trading (before another Thursday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6%, S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%.
  • Declines (before Friday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones fell 0.05%, S&P 500 declined 0.55%, Nasdaq dropped 1.4% (influenced by Microsoft shares).
  • Downturn (before another Friday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq experienced declines of 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively.
  • Mixed trading session (before another Friday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones increased 0.1%, S&P 500 decreased 0.5%, Nasdaq fell 1.15%.
  • Friday (before Monday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones increased 0.5%, S&P 500 rose 0.65%, Nasdaq advanced 0.8%.
  • Friday (before another Monday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones decreased 1.7%, S&P 500 by 1.7%, Nasdaq by 2.15%.
  • Positive performance (before Tuesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones rose 0.8%, S&P 500 gained 0.95%, Nasdaq increased 1.1%.
  • Strong close (before another Tuesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones rose 1.55%, S&P 500 by 0.7%, Nasdaq by 0.65%.
  • Positive performance (before another Tuesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones rose 1.1%, S&P 500 increased 0.65%, Nasdaq by 0.7%.
  • Strong performance (before another Tuesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each recorded a 0.7% gain.
  • Trading session (before Wednesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones decreased 0.8%, S&P 500 by 0.3%, Nasdaq by 0.3%.
  • Selloff (before another Wednesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq recorded declines of 1.8%, 2%, and 2.3% (in response to Donald Trump's statements regarding Greenland).
  • Downturn (before another Wednesday's ASX outlook): Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices experienced declines of 0.8%, 1.35%, and 2.15% respectively.
  • Monday (mixed start to the week): Dow Jones experienced a slight increase, S&P 500 fell by 0.5%, Nasdaq by 0.9%.
  • US markets closed for Presidents Day.

Commodity Markets

Oil Prices

  • Overnight (before Thursday ASX): WTI crude oil price increased 5.1% to US$87.74 per barrel, Brent crude oil price rose 5% to US$92.23 per barrel. This occurred despite reports of the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing 400 million barrels from stockpiled oil reserves.
  • Overnight (before another Thursday ASX): WTI crude oil price decreased 1.6% to US$56.20 per barrel, Brent crude oil price fell 0.95% to US$60.13 per barrel. This followed reports of an agreement for the import of up to US$2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude. Energy shares such as Beach Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd may be affected.
  • Overnight (before Friday ASX): WTI crude oil prices rose 3.3% to US$65.34 per barrel, Brent crude oil prices climbed 3.25% to US$70.62 per barrel. This rise was attributed to reports of former President Donald Trump considering strikes on Iran. This may impact Santos Ltd and Woodside Energy Group Ltd.
  • Overnight (before another Friday ASX): WTI crude oil rose 2% to US$66.47 per barrel, Brent crude oil climbed 1.9% to US$71.69 per barrel. This movement was influenced by news of a potential decision by Donald Trump concerning Iran within the next 10 days. This may affect Santos Ltd and Woodside Energy Group Ltd.
  • Overnight (before another Friday ASX): WTI crude oil price declined 0.15% to US$65.31 a barrel, Brent crude oil price rose 0.05% to US$70.89 a barrel. Market participants are monitoring developments in US-Iran nuclear talks. This may impact Santos Ltd and Woodside Energy Group Ltd.
  • Friday: Increased. WTI crude oil price rose 5.45% to US$99.64 a barrel, Brent crude oil price increased 4.2% to US$112.57 a barrel. This rise was attributed to an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
  • Friday (Another report): Increased. WTI crude oil price rose 2.35% to US$59.12 per barrel, Brent crude oil price increased 2.2% to US$63.34 per barrel. This rise was attributed to concerns regarding Iranian supply.
  • Overnight (before Monday ASX): Increased. WTI crude oil rising 4.35% to US$103.96 a barrel, Brent crude oil up 1.25% to US$113.98 a barrel. This trend positions oil prices for a monthly surge, potentially benefiting Karoon Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd.
  • Overnight (before Tuesday ASX): Fell. WTI crude oil price decreased 4.75% to US$93.89 a barrel, Brent crude oil price dropped 2.7% to US$100.31 a barrel. This movement was influenced by reports of Donald Trump's efforts to encourage allies to secure tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy shares such as Karoon Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd may experience a subdued session.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): Advanced. WTI increasing 1.7% to US$58.29 per barrel, Brent crude rising 1.6% to US$61.74 per barrel. This movement was observed amid uncertainty regarding Venezuela.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): Experienced a decline. WTI crude oil fell 0.8% to US$60.61 per barrel, Brent crude oil decreased 0.5% to US$65.55 per barrel. This may influence Karoon Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd.
  • Overnight (before Wednesday ASX): Rose. WTI crude oil price increased 2.6% to US$61.01 a barrel, Brent crude oil price rose 2.2% to US$65.31 a barrel. This followed news regarding Donald Trump's cancellation of meetings with Iran and statements to protesters. This may impact Beach Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd.
  • Overnight (before another Wednesday ASX): Registered increases. WTI crude oil advanced 1.8% to US$60.53 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.1% to US$64.66 per barrel. This increase was attributed to supply disruption events in Kazakhstan. This may affect Beach Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd.
  • Overnight (before another Wednesday ASX): Saw an increase. WTI crude oil price rose 1.9% to US$63.31 per barrel, Brent crude oil price increased 1.7% to US$67.42 per barrel. This upward movement was attributed to a significant reduction in oil inventories.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): WTI crude oil prices decreased by 4.9% to US$62.03 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.4% to US$66.29 per barrel. This decline was attributed to easing US-Iran tensions, which could impact Karoon Energy and Santos.
  • Overnight slump (before Tuesday ASX opening): Energy stocks were the only sector in decline.

Gold Prices

  • Overnight (before Thursday ASX): Gold futures fell 1.1% to US$5,187.4 per ounce, influenced by a stronger US dollar and ongoing inflation concerns.
  • Overnight (before another Thursday ASX): Softened. CNBC reported a 0.75% decrease in gold futures prices to US$4,462 per ounce, attributed by some analysts to profit-taking activities by traders. This may lead to a subdued session for Newmont Corporation and Northern Star Resources Ltd.
  • Overnight (before Friday ASX): Gold futures prices increased 0.1% to US$5,308.5 per ounce. This week's gold price increases have been linked to safe haven demand. This may affect Evolution Mining Ltd and Newmont Corporation.
  • Overnight (before another Friday ASX): Eased slightly, with gold futures dropping to US$5,006.7 per ounce. Market participants reportedly awaited further information regarding US-Iran relations. This could lead to a muted performance for Evolution Mining Ltd and Newmont Corporation.
  • Overnight (before another Friday ASX): Gold futures price decreased 0.45% to US$5,202.9 an ounce. Traders are awaiting further information regarding US-Iran relations. This could lead to a weak performance for Evolution Mining Ltd and Newmont Corporation.
  • Friday: Increased. Gold futures rose 2.6% to US$4,524.3 an ounce. This movement suggested traders perceived the precious metal as oversold.
  • Friday (Another report): Increased. Gold futures price advanced 0.9% to US$4,500.9 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and expectations of US interest rate reductions.
  • Overnight (before Monday ASX): Increased. Gold futures price increased 0.1% to US$4,494.7 an ounce. This movement was attributed to increased demand for safe haven assets, potentially providing a positive session for Evolution Mining Ltd and Ramelius Resources Ltd.
  • Overnight (before Tuesday ASX): Softened. Gold futures price declined 0.85% to US$5,019.4 an ounce. Concerns over inflation have been cited as a factor. ASX 200 gold shares, including Evolution Mining Ltd and Ramelius Resources Ltd, may face a challenging session.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): Rose. Gold futures rose 2.8% to US$4,449 an ounce. This increase was attributed to demand for safe-haven assets following reports of UK strikes in Venezuela.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): Rose 1% to US$5,029 per ounce, driven by demand for safe-haven assets. This increase suggested a potentially favorable session for Evolution Mining Ltd and Ramelius Resources Ltd.
  • Overnight (before Wednesday ASX): Softened. Gold futures price decreased 0.3% to US$4,601.5 an ounce. The precious metal had previously reached a record high driven by increased expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts before easing. This may lead to a subdued session for Newmont Corporation and Northern Star Resources Ltd.
  • Overnight (before another Wednesday ASX): Gold futures price saw a 3.75% increase, reaching a record high of US$4,767.2 per ounce. Factors cited include heightened safe-haven demand, a weakening US dollar, and a "sell America" trading trend. Newmont Corporation and Northern Star Resources Ltd are anticipated to be affected.
  • Overnight (before another Wednesday ASX): Rebounded. Gold futures increasing 6.65% to US$4,961.4 per ounce. This recovery is believed by traders to be a reaction to the precious metal being oversold.
  • Overnight (before another Tuesday ASX): Gold futures prices declined by 1.85% to US$4,670 per ounce. This fall, occurring after Donald Trump's nomination for the next US Federal Reserve chief, may affect Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources.
  • Over the weekend: Increased, which translated to a 0.3% gain for Northern Star Resources. Gold futures briefly surpassed $US5000 per ounce, settling around $US5079.40 per ounce, influenced by a softer US dollar, macro uncertainty, and central bank buying.
  • Trading around $US5,047 an ounce: Northern Star advanced by 2.3%, and Newmont added 4.6%.
  • Up 1.8 percent: Silver prices were 5.9 percent higher.

Other Industrial Metals

  • Monday (unspecified): Materials were the primary laggards. Singapore iron ore futures reached multi-month lows.
  • London-listed shares: BHP Group Ltd and Rio Tinto Ltd advanced by nearly 2%. This movement was attributed to an increase in commodity prices, with copper rising above US$13,000 amid supply concerns. This trend could impact their ASX-listed counterparts.
  • Copper-focused company Capstone: Gained 1%.

Company News and Analyst Ratings

  • A2 Milk: Increased 6.8% after raising full-year revenue projections due to an 18% rise in first-half revenue. Revised full-year guidance upwards after a first-half performance that included a 19.6% rise in underlying profit.
  • Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS): Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating with an improved price target of 82 cents. This followed development consent for its Constellation Project, expected to de-risk its path to production and support mining operations by mid-2026. Bell Potter noted Aeris Resources could be an attractive corporate acquisition target.
  • AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP): Announced an on-market share buyback program, committing to repurchase up to $150 million of its ordinary shares. CEO Alexis George stated the decision reflects a commitment to returning surplus capital and prioritizing organic growth, deeming the buyback the most efficient use of capital at the time. Share price decreased by 30% to $1.21 following full-year results: 20.8% increase in underlying net profit after tax to $285 million, but an 11.3% decrease in statutory profit to $133 million. Outgoing CEO Alexis George stated 2025 was important for resolving legacy items and stabilizing the portfolio.
  • Ansell: Gained 3.8% after announcing profit results, which were offset by cost-cutting measures addressing US tariff losses.
  • Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX): Morgans analysts retained a 'hold' rating, adjusting price target to $4.74. Forecast of ALX free cashflow and cash reserves was downgraded, but Morgans saw ALX as capable of sustaining current DPS of 40 cps until at least the end of the decade. DCF-based business-as-usual valuation reduced 30 cps to $4.43/sh, due to forecast changes.
  • Aurizon: Rose seven percent following the abandonment of plans to sell a stake in its Queensland rail network. Interim dividends also increased by one-third to 12.5c.
  • BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP): Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating and a $56.50 price target. The firm cited positive performance during the second quarter, noting outperformance in iron ore operations and copper production exceeding forecasts, particularly from the Escondida mine in Chile. Morgan Stanley's positive outlook on the stock remained unchanged. BHP's share price closed at $48.43. Fell 1.5% due to Singapore iron ore futures reaching multi-month lows. BHP was down 2.0% (Monday). Gained 2%. Benefited from higher iron ore and copper prices in the six months to December and a gain from a silver business deal, leading to increased dividends and share buybacks.
  • BlueScope Steel (ASX: BSL): Confirmed receipt of a $30.00 per share takeover offer from a consortium comprising SGH Ltd and US-based Steel Dynamics. BlueScope Steel is evaluating this offer, having previously rejected three prior proposals. Shares decreased 2.7% (Monday). Experienced a 1.8% decrease despite reporting a half-year net profit of $391 million, which was more than double the profit from the previous year.
  • Catapult Sports Ltd: Bell Potter maintained its 'buy' rating following its trading update. The broker adjusted its price target slightly to $4.75 from $4.85, indicating a potential upside of approximately 40%. Bell Potter noted Catapult as its preferred mid-cap exposure within the technology sector.
  • Clarity Pharmaceuticals: Gained over 13% after releasing positive results for its prostate cancer therapy.
  • Codan Ltd: Bell Potter maintained a 'hold' rating, increasing the price target to $36.70 from $27.80. The assessment suggested Codan shares were trading at fair value (33x EV / EBIT), amidst improving operating momentum and outlook in both business segments. Potential for a FY26e Metal Detection revenue upgrade was noted.
  • Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL): Scheduled to report half-year results on Friday. Analysts at Morgans forecast a 3.5% increase in revenue and a 16.5% rise in underlying net profit after tax, reaching $699 million. The broker noted solid Q126 sales, with Supermarkets sales increasing by 4.8%.
  • Collins Foods (ASX: CKF): Announced an accelerated expansion in Germany, acquiring eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria, near Munich, increasing its presence and scale. Australian same-store sales rose 3.2% in the second half to date and 2.7% year-to-date.
  • CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL): Bell Potter reaffirmed its 'hold' rating and $195.00 price target. The broker noted that while CSL trades at a significant discount to its historical average and peers (17x PE), this valuation is considered justified due to a low organic growth outlook, earnings growth below peers, and credibility concerns following the Seqirus de-merger pivot and recent long-term guidance downgrades. Share price fell by 6.5% to $152.97 after results and a CEO change announcement. Bell Potter trimmed its price target to $175.00.
  • Develop Global Ltd (DVP): Bell Potter maintained a "buy" rating, increasing its price target to $5.80. The broker noted: "With Woodlawn de-risking behind us, DVP presents a unique small-cap copper-zinc exposure that is relatively undervalued compared with peers in the Resources space."
  • Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN): Lost 1.6% (Monday). Increased 2.8%, recovering some losses from the previous day (Tuesday).
  • Fortescue: Declined 4.7% (Monday). Fell 4.2% (Monday). Fell 3.7% (bottom mover).
  • Goodman Group (ASX: GMG): Bell Potter analysts maintained a "buy" rating, adjusting the price target slightly to $36.45 from $37.40. The broker suggested that the market's reaction to the results might be due to the absence of an earnings upgrade, which has been a feature of first-half results in eight out of the last ten years.
  • JB Hi-Fi: Advanced 7.5%, boosted by strong end-of-year sales. EToro analyst Zavier Wong cautioned that future sales growth may moderate in the second half due to expected rate hikes. Report of a 7.3% increase in first-half sales and an 8.1% rise in earnings. Surged almost 5% after interim results were released.
  • Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW): Bell Potter analysts maintained a "buy" rating, adjusting the price target to $220.00 after the company's full-year results. The firm cited the company's "GARP profile," expected growth driven by R&D investment, and an "enduring moat." Added 8.4% (Monday).
  • Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR): Bell Potter retained its 'buy' rating and significantly improved its price target to $2.48 from $1.52, citing stronger-than-expected lithium prices. Bell Potter's updated price outlook indicated Liontown would deleverage from a net debt of $274 million by September 30, 2025, to a net cash position by the end of 2026. Earnings per share (EPS) changes included +2.3cps (previously -2.3cps) for FY26, a 230% increase for FY27, and a 106% increase for FY28. Kathleen Valley lithium project noted for strategic scale, long project life, and location within a tier-one mining jurisdiction. Bell Potter maintained its 'buy' rating, adjusting the price target to $2.42 from $2.48. The broker noted that current lithium price strength could enable Liontown to generate cash for production expansions and shareholder returns. Key factors cited included the strategic importance of the Kathleen Valley project, its long project life, location in a tier-one mining jurisdiction, and existing offtake contracts with electric vehicle (EV) and battery original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company's balance sheet was also described as strong, with long-tenor debt finance.
  • Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC): Bell Potter upgraded Lynas shares from a 'sell' to a 'hold' rating, setting a new price target of $19.00, up from $11.60. The broker noted recent announcements protect a significant portion of revenue and earnings, mitigating impact of potential price volatility from future supply increases.
  • National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB): UBS upgraded shares to a "buy" rating, increasing its price target to $47.00. The broker highlighted NAB's continued success in its business banking leadership and is positioned to benefit from structural business lending growth. UBS anticipated a higher potential for a re-rating this year. NAB's share price concluded the week at $42.35. Dipped 1.1% (Monday).
  • Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM): Added 4.6% (Monday).
  • Nick Scali: Down 5.5% following its results from the previous week.
  • Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST): Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating and a $30.00 price target. The brokerage noted the 8.6% share price decline and A$3.3 billion market capitalization loss following a recent production downgrade might be an overreaction, assuming production issues are temporary and will normalize in the second half of the year. Rose 1.8% (Tuesday).
  • Pantoro Gold Ltd (PNR): Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'hold' rating, setting an improved price target of $6.05. Concerns were noted regarding the company's ability to meet its guidance, despite improved performance in the December quarter. The broker indicated that production and cost run-rates remain outside guidance expectations for the second half of fiscal year 2026.
  • Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd: Released half-year results. Reported an 11% decrease in net profit after tax, reaching $67.3 million. Reduced interim dividend by 12% to 29 cents per share, reflecting lower performance fees.
  • Premier Investments (ASX: PMV): Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating for shares, adjusting its price target to $20.00 from $26.50. The broker's assessment suggested the current share price implied minimal earnings for the Smiggle brand. Bell Potter stated, "We see limited catalysts for Smiggle, apart from the interim management change and lower our assumptions. However, our views remain unchanged that the current share price implies minimum levels of earnings assumed in the Smiggle brand and any improvements from a lower base case should see some risk-reward for current conditions." Bell Potter also maintained a buy rating with a reduced price target of $20.00. The company expects first-half EBIT of $120 million, which is 10% below consensus estimates. Bell Potter indicated Smiggle is negatively impacting performance, particularly in the United Kingdom.
  • Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME): Share price dropped by 20% to $134.96 following half-year results: 28.4% increase in revenue to $124.8 million and a 29.7% rise in underlying profit before tax to $90.7 million. These results were reportedly softer than some market expectations. CEO Dr Sam Hupert noted a significant implementation (Trinity Cohort 1) went live late in the period, thus having limited impact on the half-year results.
  • ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD): Scheduled to release its second-quarter financial update on Friday. Consensus estimates project 9% revenue growth and a gross margin of 62.1% for the quarter. Bell Potter upgraded shares to a 'buy' rating with a target price of $47.73. The upgrade was based on Q2 results, including double-digit revenue and earnings growth, gross margin expansion, solid cash generation, and improved FY26 guidance for gross margin (62-63%).
  • Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO): Scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year production update. Current consensus estimates for the full year include copper production of 863,000 tonnes, iron ore production of 322.756 million tonnes, and aluminium production of 3.22 million tonnes. Shares are under observation as the deadline for a potential Glencore takeover bid approaches. Under London Stock Exchange rules, Rio Tinto must submit an offer by tomorrow or be restricted from making another bid for Glencore for six months. Released full-year results, reporting a 9% increase in underlying EBITDA to US$25.36 billion. Underlying earnings remained stable at US$10.87 billion, which led the board to maintain total dividends at US$4.02 per share. Simon Trott, Rio Tinto's chief executive, stated the financial results demonstrate progress in their operational approach, citing an 8% increase in CuEq production driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine and record iron ore production from Pilbara operations since April. These results were below consensus estimates, which might impact Rio Tinto shares. Surged 2.5% (Tuesday). Shares fell 4.1% after suspending operations at an iron ore mine in Guinea following a worker's death (Monday). Decreased 5.0% to a one-week low of $161.19 following a fatality at its Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, resulting in a halt of operations. Down 2.1% (commodity prices decline).
  • SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH): Bell Potter affirmed its 'hold' rating and a $52.00 price target following SGH's takeover offer for BlueScope Steel Ltd. Bell Potter noted, "We believe SGH is securing a good deal for shareholders, acquiring the Australia and RoW businesses at cycle-lows. These assets will benefit from SGH's capital-backing and high-performance operating model which has proven successful with the Boral turnaround. At an offer price of A$30.00/sh, we estimate SGH is paying A$6.00- 9.00/sh for the non-NA assets or 8.4-12.6x EV / FY25a EBIT (SGH: 15.2x pre-deal). We make no material changes to our EPS forecasts and valuation in this report."
  • Strike Energy Ltd: Bell Potter issued a speculative buy rating for shares, setting a price target of 15 cents. This implies a potential upside of over 40% from current levels. The rating followed the Western Australian Economic Regulation Authority's finalization of the Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price for the 2028/29 capacity year at $488,500/MW per year, which could generate approximately $42 million in revenues from the South Erregulla project, prior to electricity sales.
  • Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN): Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating with a trimmed price target of $22.25. The broker suggested recent share price weakness presents a buying opportunity. While acknowledging some risk to Suncorp's dividends, Morgan Stanley expressed satisfaction with the overall business, anticipating material improvement in earnings quality due to reinsurance options, potentially leading to a re-rating in 2026. The Suncorp share price was $17.41.
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX): Released an update on its performance for FY 2025. Unaudited group revenue approximated US$804 million (A$1.2 billion), consistent with its previously upgraded guidance of US$800 million to US$820 million. Fourth-quarter revenue showed a 46% increase year-over-year, reaching US$208 million. Dr. Christian Behrenbruch, CEO of Telix, commented on "excellent sequential growth in Q4 2025," partly driven by the successful U.S. launch of Gozellix.
  • Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW): Share price decreased by 28% to $8.20 following half-year results: 19.8% increase in revenue to $375.9 million and a 13% increase in EBITDA to $14.9 million. Management reaffirmed its FY 2026 EBITDA margin guidance of 3% to 5%.
  • Treasury Wine Estates: Dipped 5.1% after reporting a $649 million loss in the first half and canceling interim dividends. Was the lowest performer in the ASX200 at midday, experiencing a 6.9% decline to a two-month low of $4.875. Announced the suspension of its dividend and reported a statutory loss of $649.4 million, attributed to weak sales in the United States and China.
  • Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP): UBS retained a "buy" rating, adjusting its price target down to $5.20. UBS suggested significant share price weakness had created a buying opportunity. This weakness was partly attributed to an ongoing industry inquiry in the United States. The firm also noted potential 10% caps on credit card interest rates, as proposed by President Trump, could lead to tighter credit card lending conditions, potentially increasing consumer reliance on buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. However, uncertainty regarding the regulatory interpretation of Zip's fees by lawmakers remained. Zip's share price was $3.04 at the close of the week.

Other Company Movements

  • ANZ: Declined by 2.6% (Monday). Down 2.1% (Monday).
  • Austral (shipbuilder): Among the top movers on the ASX 200, rising 15%.
  • Bendigo Bank: Fell by 1.4% following its recent results. Decreased by 2.7% after reporting $256.4 million in half-year cash earnings, a 3.3% reduction from the previous year.
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA): Saw a 0.2% increase (Monday). Added 0.5% (Monday).
  • Coles and Woolworths: Increased 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, unaffected by the Federal Court case initiated by the ACCC. Both are scheduled to report half-year earnings later this week. Their results are anticipated to be positive but are expected to draw scrutiny due to ongoing legal action from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
  • GPT and Stockland (REITs): Each rose 0.4% after reporting first-half results.
  • Harvey Norman: Up 2.2% (Monday).
  • Karoon Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd: May experience a subdued session (Monday).
  • Life360: Grew by 6.0% (Monday).
  • Lovisa: Up 2.2% (Monday).
  • Telstra: Reported an 8% profit increase driven by cost-cutting and strong mobile performance.
  • Westpac: Advanced 0.2% (Monday).
  • Wisetech Global: Up 8% (Monday). Up 9.5% (Monday).
  • Xero: Rose by 6.7% (Monday).

Economic Indicators and Events

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Current cash rate futures indicated a 71% probability of the RBA raising the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corp shares will be monitored. Markets anticipated a 0.25 percentage point increase in the cash rate, which would mark the first rate hike in over two years. RBA minutes are also an upcoming economic data point.
  • Australian Dollar: Trading at US69.55 cents (Tuesday 10:39 am AEDT). Valued at 70.82 US cents, an increase from 70.68 US cents on the preceding Friday.
  • US Inflation Report: A cooler-than-anticipated US inflation report over the weekend contributed to expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, revising previous forecasts of two cuts.
  • January Employment Data: Expectations suggest a softer print, with around 10,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate possibly ticking up to 4.3 percent. The RBA's broader outlook, citing demand exceeding supply and tight labor market conditions, is not expected to significantly change. Markets are currently predicting a 91 percent chance of a cash rate hold next month.
  • ACCC Legal Action: Against Coles and Woolworths regarding alleged misleading discount practices.
  • US Supreme Court Decision: Regarding the legality of many of former President Donald Trump's tariffs may impact the US market.

Ex-Dividend Shares

  • Tuesday (Unspecified): Seek Ltd, Reece Ltd, and Credit Corp Ltd were scheduled to trade ex-dividend. Seek Ltd is distributing a fully franked interim dividend of 27 cents per share on April 1.
  • Unspecified: Cromwell Property Group, GenusPlus Group Ltd, Maas Group Holdings Ltd, and New Hope Corporation Ltd were scheduled to trade ex-dividend. New Hope Corporation Ltd is set to issue a 10 cents per share fully franked dividend on April 20.

Market Earnings Outlook

ASX 200 Earnings Growth: Projected to increase by almost 13% for the full financial year, a change from initial forecasts of 3%. Aggregate company earnings largely outperformed expectations in half-year results.

  • UBS Analysts: Observed that the upward momentum in ASX 200 earnings revisions is currently at its highest since mid-2022. More than 80% through the earnings season, the ratio of companies exceeding profit expectations to those missing them stands at two to one.
  • AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver: Indicated that the Australian share market is experiencing growth driven by a rebound in company earnings, following three years of declines post-COVID.
  • Major Australian Banks: Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, Westpac, and National Australia Bank were significant contributors to strong earnings performance, driven by increased credit growth, improved margins, and sustained low levels of bad debts.
  • Mining Sector: Showed strength, with BHP benefiting from higher iron ore and copper prices in the six months to December.
  • Retail Sector: Performance was varied, with strong results from larger players like Wesfarmers and JB Hi-Fi. Discretionary retail may face pressure in the current half due to interest rate increases.
  • Defensive Stocks: Utilities performed well.