Venezuela Navigates Complex Political Transition Amidst Maduro's Arrest
Venezuela is undergoing a complex political transition after former President Nicolás Maduro was taken into US custody, facing narco-terrorism charges. The event has prompted diverse reactions among Venezuelans both domestically and in the diaspora, with expressions of cautious optimism for change alongside significant concerns about the country's ongoing economic hardship, political stability, and the influence of existing power structures.
Apprehension of Nicolás Maduro and US Involvement
Former President Nicolás Maduro was apprehended at his Caracas compound and is currently in US custody, facing charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy-related drug offenses. This action followed a controversial decision by the United States to pursue these charges.
Following Maduro's apprehension, President Donald Trump announced the US intention to reclaim Venezuelan oil assets, with specific plans remaining undefined but prioritizing access for American companies. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, though its daily extraction rate is approximately 900,000 barrels. US military assets reportedly remain in the Caribbean, with plans to control oil movements as a form of leverage.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as "uninvestable" in a meeting with oil executives.
Interim Leadership and Opposition Developments
Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president, reportedly with US support. Concurrently, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado announced her intention to return to Venezuela and called for new elections. Approximately one week after Maduro's apprehension, the Venezuelan government reportedly began releasing a substantial number of foreign and Venezuelan prisoners, a concession that followed years of demands from the opposition and the international community.
Among opposition organizers and civil society figures within Venezuela, concerns have emerged regarding the pace of a transition to formal power under Machado. Some sources from Caracas and other regions stated that while Machado was considered a legitimate leader, the institutional conditions for her to govern might not yet be established. Concerns were expressed that a rapid transition could create unfavorable conditions for her leadership or provide an opportunity for hardliners to reassert control. A proposal was made to maintain interim leader Delcy Rodríguez in executive control until a constitutionally mandated election could be held in 90 days.
Machado publicly rejected this proposal, characterizing it as a continuation of the previous administration.
Humanitarian Crisis and Economic Conditions
The United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) reports that over 7.9 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2013, representing the largest exodus in Latin America's recent history and one of the world's largest displacement crises. A majority of these individuals have sought refuge in other South American nations, with Colombia hosting the largest number. Approximately 23% of Venezuela's population has been displaced during Mr. Maduro's tenure.
Venezuela's economy is predominantly reliant on its oil industry, which was nationalized in the 1970s. The government has faced substantial sanctions from the US and the international community, contributing to hyperinflation alongside domestic policies. Reports indicate widespread corruption within government ranks, cited as a factor in the limited distribution of oil revenues to the general populace.
Most Venezuelans continue to experience poverty, with incomes frequently unable to meet basic needs.
Gloria Pérez, a Caracas retiree, reported receiving a monthly pension of 300 Bolivars (approximately $1.50) and a "war bonus" of about $150, which she states is insufficient to cover basic living expenses.
While hyperinflation has eased and food shortages are less severe in recent years, unofficial reports indicate that prices for goods such as meat, fish, and drinking water have doubled since the end of last year, with retailers reportedly increasing prices in anticipation of further cost of living rises. Many individuals participate in the "informal" economy, engaging in multiple jobs or side hustles to sustain themselves.
Political Repression and Human Rights Allegations
International human rights organizations, including the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission to Venezuela, have documented systematic detentions and torture by the Dirección General de Contrainteligencia Militar (DGCIM), Venezuela's military intelligence service, under the former administration.
Former mission chair Marta Valiñas described the DGCIM's actions as "horrific," detailing methods such as beatings during interrogations, psychological torture, asphyxiation with plastic bags, electric shocks, and rape of male detainees.
The DGCIM and its senior officers have been sanctioned by nations including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and Canada for human rights abuses. Marta Valiñas stated that both Delcy Rodriguez and Nicolás Maduro should be investigated and prosecuted for their roles in crimes against humanity. Delcy Rodriguez herself was sanctioned by the Trump administration and the UK in 2020 for her role in repressing political opponents and undermining democracy.
Assessing public opinion within Venezuela is difficult due to state repression. Individuals often fear retribution for speaking out, with reports detailing journalists being detained and civilians having their phones searched for anti-regime content. Jorge García, a teacher, described widespread fear among Venezuelans regarding online or public expressions of dissent.
Several Venezuelan citizens have reported fleeing the country due to political persecution. Diana Camacaro, a human rights activist, departed Venezuela two days after the 2024 Venezuelan election following a warning that she was on a list for detention. Her passport was among hundreds reportedly canceled for political activists and government opponents. Gaby Arellano, elected to Venezuela's parliament in 2015 as an opposition member, stated she was compelled to flee in 2018 to avoid political imprisonment. Josh Madrid, a Venezuelan citizen, fled in 2018 after being detained by DGCIM officers, questioned about his attendance at an anti-Maduro rally, and accused of terrorism. He later received a summons to return, signed by Major Alexander Granko Arteaga, head of the DGCIM's "Special Affairs Division," who was sanctioned by the UK for human rights violations.
Divergent Reactions and Future Outlook
Reactions among Venezuelan diaspora groups worldwide ranged from expressions of relief to cautious optimism. Maria Fernanda Gonzalez, who departed Caracas in 2017, conveyed a feeling of renewed opportunity, and some individuals expressed hope for an eventual return from exile.
Diana Camacaro stated she does not feel secure returning to Venezuela until a stable democratic government is established, expressing an aspiration to return in the future to contribute to national change.
Many Venezuelans, including Camacaro, consider the potential concession of oil as a necessary price for establishing freedom and a democratic regime.
In contrast, individuals within Venezuela adopted a more cautious stance. Anonymous opposition representatives in Caracas informed ABC that the existing power structure largely remained intact despite Maduro's absence, with senior officials continuing to exert control. Local media, opposition figures, and policy-makers warned that Maduro's removal alone would not dismantle the established system. Reports from Venezuelan municipalities indicated minimal immediate changes at the local level. Diosdado Cabello, Interior Minister and former military officer, has been identified by analysts as retaining significant influence within the country's security state.
Public opinion within Venezuela is varied. An October AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed that approximately one-third of Venezuelans within the country supported a US military intervention to depose Maduro, whereas two-thirds of Venezuelans outside the country supported it. Reactions in Caracas have varied; residents in the poorer Catia neighborhood expressed strong opposition to the US action and called for Maduro's return, while those in the less affluent Chacao neighborhood supported the US intervention and advocated for new national elections.
Marcos Leon, a street artist, described the post-Maduro situation as marked by "uncertainty and unease," expressing concerns about the implications of US assistance and fear of further external interference given Venezuela's natural resources.
Despite the challenges, hope exists for an improved future for Venezuela and a democratic transition. However, the path to freedom is viewed by some as protracted and complex.