Internal Dynamics of the MAGA Movement
During a cabinet meeting two weeks prior, US President Donald Trump indicated that the next Republican presidential candidate in 2028 was likely present. While his supporters chanted "four more years" at a recent rally, Trump stated, "It's not going to be me" for the 2028 nomination. These remarks, combined with observed frictions within his coalition, suggest that competition to succeed him and define the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement is ongoing.
In last month's local elections, the Republican Party experienced a decrease in support among minority and working-class voters, a demographic that contributed to Trump's 2024 presidential victory. Policy disagreements have occurred among his team members, and some figures, such as Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, have criticized the president, alleging a disconnect from his voter base. International and domestic media outlets have reported on potential fractures within the Maga base. The Washington Post, for instance, published a headline on Monday asking if "Maga leaders warn Trump the base is checking out. Will he listen?" These developments indicate potential challenges for the president and his movement in the coming months.
Potential Successors and Ideological Alignment
During the recent cabinet meeting, several individuals regarded as potential successors within the Republican Party were present:
- Vice-President JD Vance: Positioned directly across from the president, Vance is widely considered a leading contender, supported by Trump's sons and some libertarian Silicon Valley investors. He is closely associated with efforts to provide an ideological foundation for Trumpism.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Located to the president's immediate right, Rubio has shifted his political positions over the past decade to align with the Maga movement. He altered his stances on immigration policy and Russia to reflect Trump's "America First" foreign policy. Rubio is regarded as one of the most influential traditional Republicans within the party.
- Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr: Seated two places from Rubio, Kennedy, who transitioned from Democrat to independent to Republican, advocates for vaccine skepticism and a "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, which has generated significant reactions within the US health bureaucracy. His political journey illustrates the diverse ideological alliances formed by Trump.
- Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem: Positioned at the corner of the table, Noem, a former South Dakota governor, is known for her advocacy of aggressive immigration enforcement. This includes a recent call for a full travel ban on countries identified as sources of illegal immigration and associated issues, making her a visible proponent of administration policies.
Each of these figures may aspire to become Trump's political heir and lead the movement that has reshaped American politics. However, maintaining the cohesion of this coalition is seen as a challenge.
Evolution of the Republican Coalition
Former Republican Congressman Rodney Davis of Illinois noted that the next Republican leader will need to differentiate themselves from Trump while remaining aligned with his base. A YouGov survey earlier this month indicated Trump's net approval rating at -14, compared to +6 when he reassumed office in January. Concerns regarding the economy and the expansion of presidential power have also been reported. The leadership of Trump's movement represents central influence within the Republican Party, which has undergone significant changes in recent decades.
Davis, who served in Congress from 2013 to 2023, stated that the Republican coalition of the Ronald Reagan era is fundamentally different from today's. Laura K Field, author of Furious Minds: The Making of the Maga New Right, described Reagan's coalition as a fusion of free-market economics, cultural conservatism, anti-communism, and international foreign affairs. In contrast, Trump's party, as described by adviser Michael Anton in 2016, emphasizes secure borders, economic nationalism, and an America-First foreign policy.
Divisions and Challenges within the Republican Base
A recent comprehensive survey by the conservative Manhattan Institute offered insights into Trump's coalition, identifying 65% as "core Republicans" (supporters since at least 2016) and 29% as "new entrant Republicans." The new entrants are generally younger, more diverse, and hold views that diverge from traditional conservative orthodoxy, including comparatively more left-leaning economic policies, more liberal stances on immigration and social issues, and potentially pro-China or critical views of Israel. This segment presents a potential challenge to the durability of Trump's coalition; only just over half of new entrants expressed definite support for a Republican in next year's mid-term congressional elections.
New entrant Republican voters showed notably less support for potential Trump successors like Rubio (50% positive views among new entrants vs. 70% among core Republicans) and Vance (50% positive vs. 80%). The survey also indicated that over half of new entrants believe political violence is "sometimes justified," compared to 20% of core Republicans. Additionally, new entrants may be more tolerant of racist or anti-Semitic speech and more prone to conspiratorial thinking on various topics. Jesse Arm, vice-president of external affairs at the Manhattan Institute, emphasized that the core of the party remains traditional Republicans, and future leaders will need to define the agenda.
These findings help explain recent frictions within the Trump coalition:
- Trump-Greene Dispute: This disagreement, which led to Greene's resignation from Congress, began with her advocacy for the full release of government files related to the Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking case—a topic that has generated conservative conspiracy theories. It expanded to include critiques of Trump's Middle East policy and accusations of his failure to address cost-of-living and healthcare concerns for low-income American voters.
- Economic Policy Disagreement: An earlier split involved Elon Musk, a supporter and former inner-circle member, who condemned certain tariffs and government spending policies.
- Nick Fuentes Debate: The president has largely avoided taking a public stance on the ongoing disagreement within conservative ranks regarding the inclusion of Nick Fuentes, a far-right political commentator and Holocaust denier, in the conservative movement. This dispute has caused significant debate within the Heritage Foundation and divided prominent right-wing commentators.
In Congress, signs of friction with the president's agenda are also apparent. Despite White House lobbying, the House passed a measure mandating the release of the Epstein files. Furthermore, Senate Republicans have not abandoned the filibuster, which has allowed Democrats to impede some of Trump's agenda.
Recent election results have shown setbacks for the Republican Party. Democrats secured governorships in Virginia and New Jersey last month by notable margins. In dozens of special elections for state and local seats over the past year, Democrats have, on average, improved their margins by approximately 13% compared to similar races in the previous November's national elections.
Outlook for Trumpism
These considerations will be relevant for Republicans ahead of the 2026 mid-term congressional elections, raising concerns for some that, without Trump at the top of the ticket, their coalition may face challenges in achieving consistent electoral victories. However, even electoral defeats in upcoming cycles are unlikely to conclude the influence of Trumpism. Laura K Field asserts that the changes Trump has brought within the Republican Party are foundational. She argues that the Trump movement builds upon populist strains in US politics dating back decades, such as Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign and the Tea Party protests, indicating that the traditional Republican order is no longer dominant and the Trump movement is enduring.