Russian forces have significantly intensified drone and missile strikes across Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas. Unconfirmed reports and visual evidence suggest the use of an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile against Lviv Oblast. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts advanced on security guarantees for Ukraine involving Western nations, even as Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected such initiatives. Meanwhile, the United States enforced sanctions by seizing several oil tankers linked to Russian attempts to bypass restrictions on Venezuelan oil. Military operations continued across multiple frontlines, with both sides reporting localized advances and Ukrainian forces conducting long-range strikes against Russian military and industrial targets.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian forces conducted a series of extensive drone and missile strikes across Ukraine from early January to early March.
January Strikes
- January 7-8 night: 97 Shahed-type and Gerbera-type drones were launched. Ukrainian forces reported downing 70 drones, while 27 struck 13 locations, affecting civilian and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, leading to power outages. Zaporizhstal, a Ukrainian steel company, temporarily suspended production due to power loss.
- January 8 afternoon: Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles struck apartment buildings in Kryvyi Rih, injuring 17 civilians and damaging 29 buildings. Drones also damaged port infrastructure and an oil storage tank in Odesa Raion.
- January 8-9 night: Reports emerged of a Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast, launched from the Kapustin Yar test site. Ukrainian and Russian officials later confirmed the strike. Visual evidence and OSINT analysts suggested the target was a Ukrainian defense industrial enterprise in Lviv City, possibly the Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant. Ukrainian officials and experts denied claims that the strike targeted an underground gas storage facility in Stryi. This strike marked the first time a Russian ballistic missile impacted Lviv Oblast.
- January 8-9 (broader campaign): A long-range combined drone and missile strike caused extensive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported launches of various missile types, including Iskander-M, Kalibr, and a medium-range ballistic missile, alongside numerous Shahed-type drones. Strikes damaged critical, residential, educational, and transport infrastructure in Kyiv City and Oblast, resulting in four fatalities and at least 25 injuries in Kyiv. Power was lost for over 500,000 consumers in Kyiv City and 3,000 in Chernihiv Oblast.
- January 9-10 night: Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 121 drones of various types. Ukrainian air defenses downed 94 drones. The missile and 27 drones struck 15 locations, targeting agricultural, energy, industrial, and port infrastructure in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa oblasts.
February Strikes
- January 31-February 1 night: 90 drones, including Shaheds, were launched. Ukrainian forces downed 76, while 14 struck nine locations, affecting residential and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
- February 1: Drone strikes hit a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia City, causing a fire in the gynecological department and injuring at least six people. Separately, four Shahed drones struck a DTEK bus transporting miners near Ternivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in at least 12 fatalities and 16 injuries.
- February 13-14 night: One Iskander-M ballistic missile and 112 drones of various types were launched from multiple locations. Ukrainian forces reported downing 91 drones, with 18 hitting 11 locations. Energy, residential, and administrative infrastructure in Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts were targeted.
- February 14-15 night: Russian forces launched 83 drones, including approximately 50 Shaheds. Ukrainian forces reportedly downed 55 drones, with 25 impacting 12 locations. Ukrainian officials indicated strikes on energy, civilian, and railway infrastructure in Odesa, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy oblasts.
March Strikes
- March 4-5 night: Russian forces launched 155 drones of various types, predominantly Shaheds. Ukrainian forces downed 136 drones. Eight strike drones hit targets, and debris fell in three locations. Strikes affected residential, civilian, commercial, and rail infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts, causing power outages. A Panamanian-flagged cargo ship carrying Ukrainian corn was struck in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that in January 2026, Russian forces launched approximately 6,000 drones, over 150 missiles, and more than 5,000 guided glide bombs, causing damage to every power plant in Ukraine. He also stated that in the week of February 8-14, Russian forces launched approximately 1,300 drones, over 1,200 glide bombs, and more than 50 missiles, resulting in a loss of about 10 gigawatts of Ukraine's electricity generation capacity. Zelensky noted Ukrainian forces frequently intercept about 90 percent of Shahed drones, but Russian forces are continually modifying their drones with innovations such as varying flight altitudes, Starlink terminal integration, "mothership" capabilities for first-person view (FPV) drones, and real-time control.
International Diplomacy and Security Guarantees
Diplomatic discussions regarding security guarantees for Ukraine have progressed, while Russia has voiced strong opposition and issued threats.
Russian Rejection and Threats
On January 8, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova rejected security guarantees for Ukraine being finalized by the United States and Europe, labeling them "militaristic declarations." She stated that Western military deployments to Ukraine would be considered a "foreign intervention," a "direct threat" to Russia's security, and "legitimate combat targets." The MFA reiterated calls for any peace agreement to address "root causes" of the conflict, including Ukrainian neutrality, "demilitarization," "denazification," protections for ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers, and recognition of "territorial realities." The Kremlin has leveraged Oreshnik missile threats to discourage Western support and troop deployments, with Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev threatening Oreshnik missile use against European or NATO troops, and State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky warning of Russian retaliation against "blatant violations of red lines."
Ukraine's Security Talks
On January 7, US, Ukrainian, and Coalition of the Willing officials held further talks in Paris regarding potential security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner. Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov described the negotiations as having achieved “tangible results.” On January 6, President Zelensky outlined decisions from Coalition of the Willing members, including the identification of countries that would lead in guaranteeing a ceasefire on land, sea, and air, as well as in Ukraine's reconstruction. The command and control structure for a multinational force intended for deployment to Ukraine was also determined.
Declarations of Intent
On January 6, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and France signed a declaration of intent. This declaration states France and the United Kingdom's intention to deploy armed forces as part of a multinational force, engage in deterrence operations across various domains, assist in constructing and protecting facilities for military resources in Ukraine, and establish a negotiating group for a broader international agreement with other Coalition of the Willing members. European leaders indicated potential contributions, with Belgium expected to support sea and air obligations and Ukrainian force training, and Sweden expressing willingness to provide Gripen fighter jets for aerial surveillance, maritime resources for Black Sea demining, and train Ukrainian forces. Germany, Spain, and Lithuania may deploy ground forces to Ukraine post-conflict as part of the multinational force.
Bilateral and Trilateral Discussions
Zelensky also mentioned progress in “bilateral security guarantees” and “trilateral” documents, possibly referring to US-Ukrainian security guarantees and US-Ukraine-Russia peace agreements, anticipating their signing soon. He noted that territorial issues and control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remain unresolved and may require direct discussion with US President Donald Trump if delegation-level negotiations do not advance.
Russian Negotiation Posture
On February 4-5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed trilateral meetings involving US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations would take place in Abu Dhabi. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sought to influence the US administration by advocating for bilateral negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukraine and Europe, presenting Russia as a global power. Insider reports suggested Russia is presenting itself as open to negotiation to secure control over all of Donetsk Oblast through diplomatic channels. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Russia sees limited prospects for a breakthrough in current peace talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly considers Ukraine's cession of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, along with a frozen frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, as a "concession," despite Russia having illegally annexed these territories in their entirety in 2022 without full control.
US-Iran Rhetoric
On March 5, Kremlin officials criticized the United States for military operations against Iran, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claiming the US intended to destabilize the Middle East. Lavrov connected these operations to the conflict in Ukraine, alleging the West drew Ukraine into conflict with Russia.
Sanctions Enforcement and Shipping
The United States has actively enforced sanctions against entities linked to Russian oil trade, particularly those attempting to circumvent restrictions on Venezuelan oil.
Tanker Seizures
On January 7, US Coast Guard forces seized two oil tankers, the Bella-1 (also known as the Marinera) and the M/T Sophia, in the North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, respectively. Both vessels were either recently docked in or en route to Venezuela. The Bella-1 was reportedly not transporting oil, while the M/T Sophia was transporting an estimated 1.8 to 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. A US official stated that Russia had deployed a submarine and other naval assets to escort the Bella-1 prior to its seizure.
Ownership and Links
The Bella-1 is linked to Louis Marine Shipholding Enterprises S.A., which was sanctioned in 2024 by the United States for supporting the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF). The Bella-1, formerly flying a Panamanian flag, was authorized by the Russian Ministry of Transport to fly the Russian flag under the name Marinera as of December 24. The M/T Sophia is linked to Sunne Co Limited, sanctioned in January 2025 for involvement in the Russian economy and shipping Russian crude oil sold above the $60 per barrel price cap. The owner of the Russian-flagged Bella-1 is reportedly linked to Russian attempts to evade sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector.
Further Seizure
On January 9, the US Navy seized another oil tanker, the Olina, in the Caribbean Sea due to its links to Russia and attempts to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil. The Olina reportedly shares an identifying number with the Minerva M, previously sanctioned for transporting Russian oil, and loaded crude oil from Venezuela in late December.
Russian Response
The Russian MFA condemned the Bella-1 seizure, rejecting US assertions and claiming Western sanctions on Venezuelan oil are illegitimate. The MFA notably described the vessel as having "temporary permission" to fly a Russian flag, rather than explicitly calling it a Russian vessel, despite its new registration. Other US-sanctioned tankers operating in Venezuelan waters have also reportedly switched to Russian flags in an apparent effort to evade US sanctions and boarding attempts.
Military Developments and Frontline Activity
Military operations continued across various fronts, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces engaging in offensive and defensive actions, including long-range strikes.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory and Occupied Areas
- January: On January 7, geolocated footage showed a large fire at the Salyut plant in Moscow, which manufactures military and civilian aircraft engines. A drone strike was also reported against the Vladimir Putin Spetsnaz University in Gudermes, Chechnya. The pro-Ukrainian Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) claimed a sabotage mission destroyed 15 trucks of the Russian 350th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Kochegury, Belgorod Oblast. Between January 6 and 7, the Ukrainian General Staff reported a strike on the Oskolneftesnab oil depot near Kotel, Belgorod Oblast, resulting in a large fire. The Ukrainian General Staff also confirmed damage to two RVS-5000 vertical tanks at the Temp oil depot near Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported recent strikes on several oil refineries and chemical plants in Russia. Ukrainian forces also conducted a drone strike against the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in Oryol City. Between January 2 and 7, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against a logistics depot of the Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division in occupied Donetsk Oblast, a deployment point in Selydove, and a command post in Hirnyk belonging to the 76th Airborne Division. Drone strikes also targeted a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Novokazankuvate and logistics hubs in occupied Khliborobne and Sofiivka. A drone strike against a Russian artillery ammunition depot in occupied Mizhirya, Crimea, was also reported.
- February: On the night of February 14-15, Ukrainian forces reportedly targeted Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that strikes damaged and initiated a fire at the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal near Volna, Krasnodar Krai.
- March: Overnight on March 4-5, Ukrainian forces may have targeted oil infrastructure in Saratov Oblast, with reports of an explosion and fires near the Saratov Oil Refinery. Ukrainian Security Service sources also indicated that March 1-2 strikes against the port of Novorossiysk critically damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate Admiral Essen, rendering it unable to launch Kalibr cruise missiles due to a fire. Ukrainian forces conducted frontline strikes against Russian manpower concentrations near Pokrovsk and Berezove. Long-range strikes in occupied Crimea included Ukrainian Special Operations Forces destroying a Russian S-400 air defense system in Orlivka and a drone control point near Chornomorske being struck. The Ukrainian Navy also reported destroying a Russian Ka-27 naval helicopter over the Black Sea.
Frontline Activity by Axis
Russian forces have continued offensive operations across multiple axes, often without confirmed advances, or with limited localized gains. Ukrainian forces have also conducted counterattacks and maintained positions. Russian tactics reportedly include shifts from overt assaults to covert infiltration and the use of guided aerial glide bombs. Russian drone ranges have reportedly increased, complicating Ukrainian logistics.
- Northern Axis (Sumy Oblast): Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Yablunivka and in northern Yunakivka, northeast of Sumy City. Unconfirmed claims suggested advances southeast of Andriivka and elements of the Russian 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade seizing Andriivka. Russian forces conducted attacks northwest, north, northeast, and southeast of Sumy City, with a relatively large-scale combined assault reported between Andriivka and Oleksiivka.
- Northern Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued offensive operations, reportedly making recent advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast and attacking northeast of Kharkiv City and near Velykyi Burluk, Zelene, Buhruvatka, Vilcha, and Vovchansk. Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in Vovchansk during infiltration missions. Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in western Vovchanski Khutory.
- Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces conducted offensive operations and infiltrated east of Kupyansk, in eastern Podoly, without confirmed changes to terrain control, but with unconfirmed claims of advances in Kindrashivka and to the eastern outskirts of Tyshchenkivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly control areas of central Kupyansk. Ukraine reportedly liberated 305 square kilometers around Kupyansk in November-December 2025.
- Borova Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations. Ukrainian forces either maintained or recently advanced positions south of Zahryzove and near Nova Kruhlyakivka. Geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian forces likely liberated Nova Kruhlyakivka and maintained control over northern Bohuslavka. Russian forces made recent advances in the Borova direction.
- Slovyansk-Lyman Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations without confirmed advances, attacking near Lyman and its surrounding areas. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported intensified Russian offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction from the Serebryanske forest and near Dronivka. Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Riznykivka. Russian forces conducted a FAB-250 glide bomb strike against Slovyansk, injuring seven. Russian forces made recent advances in the Slovyansk direction.
- Siversk Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations but made no advances, attacking near Siversk and its surrounding settlements.
- Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Tactical Area: Russian forces infiltrated the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but no confirmed advances were made. Unconfirmed Russian milblogger claims reported advances in eastern Kostyantynivka, Minkivka, and Mayske. Ukrainian forces were observed operating in areas previously claimed by Russia and recently advanced southeast and south of Kostyantynivka. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson refuted Russian claims of seizing Kostyantynivka. Ukraine reportedly liberated 106 square kilometers in the Kostyantynivka direction in November-December 2025. Russian forces made recent advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
- Dobropillya Tactical Area: Russian forces continued offensive operations without advances, attacking east and southeast of Dobropillya.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations without confirmed advances. Claims of advances west of Rodynske were made. Ukrainian officials reported Russian advances towards Hryshyne and Rodynske, with mechanized assaults targeting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). Russian forces are reportedly shifting from overt assaults to covert infiltration tactics in Myrnohrad. ISW assesses Russian infiltration north of Pokrovsk, with intermixed positions in industrial areas. Russian forces are exploiting poor weather for infiltration and mechanized assaults, using guided aerial glide bombs (KABs) for fire support against Ukrainian positions daily. Ukraine reportedly liberated 106 square kilometers in the Pokrovsk direction in November-December 2025.
- Novopavlivka Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces repelled a platoon-sized mechanized assault. Ukraine reportedly liberated 106 square kilometers in the Novopavlivka direction in November-December 2025.
- Oleksandrivka Direction: Russian forces continued offensive operations without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction and reportedly counterattacked.
- Hulyaipole Direction: Russian forces infiltrated central Bratske northwest of Hulyaipole, without confirmed changes to terrain control. Russian sources claimed the seizure of Bratske. Geolocated footage indicated Russian forces recently advanced in northern Hulyaipole. Ukrainian forces reportedly cleared Russian small groups that had infiltrated into the Ukrainian near rear on January 5. Street fighting is reported, with Russian forces using infiltration tactics and a combination of drones, aviation, and artillery.
- Western Zaporizhia Oblast: Russian forces continued offensive operations without confirmed advances. Unconfirmed Russian milblogger claims reported advances in central Novoyakovlivka, northern Prymorske, and north of Stepnohirsk. Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and were shown detaining Russian prisoners of war near Novoyakovlivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense credited elements of the 247th Airborne Regiment with the claimed seizure of Veselyanka on March 3.
- Kherson Direction: Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults without advances, attacking east and west of Kherson City, and near the Antonivskyi Bridge. A Russian drone strike near Tarasa Shevchenka killed one civilian, and strikes on central Kherson City killed at least four and wounded seven. The Atesh Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group reported disabling a transformer cabinet of a Russian communications tower near occupied Strelkove.
Russian Military Capabilities and Casualties
Assessments indicate challenges for Russia in sustaining its military efforts and replacing losses, despite ongoing efforts to establish new units.
Unit Formation
The Russian military command continues to establish new units and formations, including recruitment for the 1244th Guards Artillery Brigade and the formation of the 76th Rocket Artillery Brigade in the Leningrad Military District. Additionally, the 34th Artillery Division is reportedly being created in the Moscow Military District, including two artillery brigades. However, high losses in Ukraine suggest Russia will struggle to bring these new units to their full doctrinal strength. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on January 7 that the Russian military command formed four new divisions out of 17 maneuver divisions and up to nine brigades planned for 2025, which are likely not at their full doctrinal strength.
Force Structure Shift
Mashovets observed a shift in Russian force structure, moving away from pre-war mechanized divisions to assault infantry- and light vehicle-heavy divisions with limited armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), trucks, and minimal organic air defense, artillery, and logistics. This aligns with assessments that wartime equipment losses, insufficient AFV production, and tactical shifts have led Russian forces to optimize for positional warfare.
Personnel Shortages
Mashovets assessed that Russian forces are unlikely to generate a surplus of over 70,000 troops in 2026, a number deemed insufficient to form the planned 17 maneuver divisions. Then-Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on December 27 that Russia has not developed its strategic reserve to desired capabilities, as it "constantly" deploys its operational reserve to support ongoing combat operations in Ukraine.
Casualties and Gains
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces incurred approximately 416,570 casualties throughout 2025, averaging 1,141 casualties daily. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte stated on February 13 that Russian forces are advancing at a limited speed, incurring an estimated 35,000 deaths in December 2025 and 30,000 deaths in January 2026. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that Russian forces advanced or infiltrated through approximately 462 square kilometers in December 2025 and roughly 364 square kilometers in January 2026. This translates to an estimated 76 casualties per square kilometer in December 2025 and 87 casualties per square kilometer in January 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated on February 13 that Russian forces have recently sustained 170 casualties for every kilometer of territory gained. Throughout 2025, Russian forces averaged 83 casualties per square kilometer gained.
Territorial Developments
Between January 25 and 31, Russian forces gained 141 square kilometers. In the following week, February 8 to 14, Russian gains decreased to 74 square kilometers. Ukrainian forces liberated territory in November and December 2025, including 106 square kilometers in the Kharkiv, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions, and 305 square kilometers around Kupyansk.
Military Expansion Decree
On March 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a routine decree increasing the authorized end strength of the Russian military to 2,391,770 total personnel, including 1,502,640 military personnel. This 2,640 personnel increase for 2025 is the smallest annual expansion since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and is likely tied to long-term force structure reforms aimed at bolstering forces for future conflicts, rather than immediate battlefield impact in Ukraine.
Technology and Border Security
Developments in military technology, particularly drone warfare, and increased military activity near borders have been reported.
Starlink Restrictions
On February 1, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Starlink satellite terminals operating in Ukraine have been restricted to counter their use by Russian forces on drones. Musk stated that SpaceX had taken "effective" measures and requested Ukrainian authorities to inform them of any further necessary steps. These restrictions are reportedly disrupting short- and mid-range drone strikes conducted by Russia's Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, with a Ukrainian commander suggesting Russian forces would likely require about six months to find an alternative. Russian military bloggers reported that these restrictions are causing significant disruptions to Starlink-enabled Russian drones, particularly affecting speeds over 75-90 km/h. The Rubikon Center's Telegram channel, which previously detailed specific strike locations, ceased providing such geographic information since February 4, suggesting a negative impact on Rubikon's strike campaign.
Russian Border Build-up
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the Finnish border. Satellite imagery indicates construction at the Rybka military base in Petrozavodsk (Republic of Karelia), approximately 175 kilometers from the Finnish border, where the 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) will be stationed. A new military town is also being built in Kandalaksha, Murmansk Oblast (approximately 115 kilometers from the Finnish border), for a new artillery and engineering brigade. This expansion follows Russia's restructuring of the Western Military District into the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts in 2024 to enhance strategic command along its northern border and posture against NATO.
Belarusian Activity
Belarus is reportedly increasing the number and frequency of balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace. Polish authorities reported "balloon-like" objects in Polish airspace on the night of January 31-February 1, aimed at reconnaissance and testing air defense responses. This marked the third such incident in four days for Poland, while Lithuania reported 42 Belarusian balloons in its airspace on January 27-28. These incursions are assessed to be part of Russia's "Phase Zero" effort, intended to set informational and psychological conditions for a potential future NATO-Russia conflict. Belarus may have received one to two Su-30SM2 fighter jets from Russia in a January 29 delivery.
Unidentified Drones over Germany
Several unidentified drones were observed flying over German military infrastructure on February 1, specifically above the Immelmann military airfield in Lower Saxony. German authorities have not identified the responsible party.
International Support for Ukraine
International partners continue to provide aid and prepare for future support for Ukraine.
UK Air Defense Aid
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with air defense systems, including 13 Raven and two prototype Gravehawk systems. The first batch of 15 additional Gravehawk systems is expected soon. This aid aims to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities against Russia's increasing long-range drone and missile strikes.
UK Drone Production
UK Defense Minister John Healey announced on January 9 that the UK will begin producing Ukrainian-designed "Octopus" interceptor drones, capable of intercepting Russian Shahed-type drones, starting January 2025. The UK aims to produce thousands of these drones monthly, with each costing less than 10 percent of a Russian Shahed drone. Designs will be updated every six weeks to counter Russian technological adaptations.
UK Troop Deployment Preparation
The United Kingdom is preparing for the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees in a future peace agreement. On January 9, the UK government allocated £200 million (about $268 million) to prepare British forces for a multinational deployment to post-war Ukraine. The funding will upgrade vehicles, communication systems, counter-drone protections, and force-protection equipment. The Kremlin has consistently stated that Western security guarantees are "unacceptable" and that foreign troops would be "legitimate" targets.
Ukraine's Offer of Air Defense Aid to US
On March 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine's support for US air defense efforts against Iranian Shahed drone strikes in the Middle East. Zelensky stated Ukraine received a US request for "specific support" and instructed the provision of equipment and Ukrainian specialists. He previously discussed air defense assistance with leaders from the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The Financial Times reported on March 5 that the US Department of Defense and at least one Gulf state are discussing purchasing Ukrainian-made interceptor drones, which are significantly cheaper than PAC-3 interceptors. Ukraine's offer stems from its extensive experience in defending against similar Iranian-origin drones used by Russia, reportedly achieving a 90% interception rate.
Other Developments
Russian Internal Affairs
On March 5, Russian authorities arrested a fourth deputy of former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Ruslan Tsalikov, continuing a campaign to remove Shoigu loyalists. Tsalikov, who resigned in May 2023 after Shoigu's removal, faces charges of founding a criminal organization, money laundering, and bribery. This follows the 2024 arrests of three other former deputy defense ministers: Timur Ivanov, Pavel Popov, and Dmitry Bulgakov.