The Birth-rate Crisis: A Biological Fix for a Declining World?
Jim Penman, CEO of Jim's Group, argues in his book The Birth-rate Crisis: the Hidden Catastrophe in the Global Decline that reduced dopamine sensitivity from modern activities (sex, drugs, social media) may contribute to declining birthrates. He suggests that biological interventions such as gene editing, drugs, or pheromones could eventually help restore dopamine sensitivity and increase birthrates.
The Core Claims
Penman’s argument rests on several key observations:
- Global Decline: Birthrates have fallen below replacement level in most countries, including Australia (1.48 births per woman).
- Policy Failure: Government policies like Australia's baby bonus have not reversed the trend.
- The Dopamine Hypothesis: Penman suggests that overstimulation from sex, pornography, social media, gambling, drugs, alcohol, and calorie-dense food desensitizes the brain to dopamine, reducing interest in marriage and children.
- Religious Comparison: Religious communities with restrictions on sexual activity (e.g., Amish, Mormons) tend to have higher fertility.
- The Research Solution: Penman's research team at Epigenes Australia is investigating treatments to alter dopamine response, including mimicking calorie restriction, using GLP-1 drugs (e.g., Ozempic), and gene editing.
- Regulatory Challenges: He plans to move some research to China due to regulatory costs in Australia.
Statements from Penman
"The birthrate crisis may ultimately require a biological solution and not just a cultural one."
"Immediate benefits could include improvements in addiction, anxiety, depression, motivation, and self-control."
He also claims that limiting sexual activity, including masturbation, may increase dopamine sensitivity.
Context and Commentary
- Penman has 10 children and is running for the Libertarian party in the 2022 Victorian election.
- Other public figures, including Elon Musk and Donald Trump, have also expressed concern about falling birthrates.
- Mainstream research indicates women's liberation, education, contraception, and social/economic factors contribute to lower birthrates. Polling suggests policies like working from home, parental leave, and affordable housing could encourage more births.
Scientific Background
- Dr. Anna Lembke (author of Dopamine Nation) warns that smartphones and instant gratification lead to dopamine dysregulation.
- Studies on calorie-restricted rats show increased attentiveness to young; Penman's team aims to test similar effects in humans using pheromones.