Tennessee Special Election Signals Broader Political Trends
A special election for an open congressional seat in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District concluded on December 2. Republican Matt Van Epps secured a victory by a 9-point margin over Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn. The election garnered national attention and significant financial investment from both parties, who observed the outcome for insights into political trends ahead of upcoming midterm elections.
The result for the historically conservative district indicated a 13-point shift compared to the previous presidential election, aligning with a broader trend of Democratic candidates outperforming prior results in special elections this year.
Tennessee's 7th Congressional District: A Key Test
The 7th Congressional District in Tennessee is traditionally considered conservative. Former President Donald Trump won the district by 22 percentage points in the last presidential election. The recent special election pitted Republican nominee Matt Van Epps, an Army pilot and former state Department of General Services Commissioner, against Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn, a state legislator.
The Candidates and Their Platforms
Both campaigns centered their platforms on economic issues, particularly the cost of living and affordability.
- Van Epps, endorsed by former President Trump, focused his message on reducing prices, creating jobs, and lowering healthcare costs.
- Behn's campaign highlighted similar priorities, using slogans such as "Feed kids, fix roads, fund hospitals," and criticized her opponent's ties to Washington Republicans.
High-Profile Support
High-profile political figures campaigned for their respective candidates.
- For Behn, current Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin participated in canvassing events. Former Vice President Al Gore and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez headlined a virtual rally.
- For Van Epps, House Speaker Mike Johnson held a rally. Former President Trump delivered phone messages in support, characterizing Democratic discussions of affordability as a "con job."
Finances and Polling
The election attracted over $6.5 million in external financial contributions from outside groups, with more than $1.6 million originating from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC. Public polling was limited, though an Emerson College poll indicated a slight lead for Van Epps within the margin of error. Democratic-aligned firms in October showed an 8-point advantage for Van Epps.
Broader Political Landscape and Emerging Trends
The Tennessee special election was viewed as a test of political trends, occurring as Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives with three vacancies. Historically, the president's party often loses seats in midterm elections, a trend potentially exacerbated when presidential job approval ratings are below 50%. Former President Trump's approval rating has been under 40% in recent polls.
Special Election Performance: A Consistent Democratic Shift
Democratic candidates have consistently overperformed in special elections in 2024, exceeding previous results by an average of 13% to 14% compared to the 2020 presidential election.
Examples include:
- TN-7: A D+13 shift (from R+22 to R+9)
- FL-1: A D+17 shift (from R+32 to R+15)
- FL-6: A D+19 shift (from R+33 to R+14)
- VA-11: A D+16 shift (from D+34 to D+50)
- AZ-7: A D+12 shift (from D+27 to D+39)
- VA-GOV: A D+10 shift (from D+6 to D+16)
- NJ-GOV: A D+8 shift (from D+6 to D+14)
Economic Sentiment: A Central Battleground
Public perception of the economy has remained largely negative, with "affordability" and the rising cost of living being central to voter discussions.
- A Vanderbilt University poll indicated that over 60% of Trump supporters "disagreed" that the cost of living had decreased over the past year.
- A Gallup poll showed economic confidence reaching a 17-month low, with 27% believing the economy was improving and 68% believing it was worsening.
- A Politico/Public First poll found that approximately 4-in-10 Trump voters considered the cost of living to be at a historic high, attributed responsibility to the president, and perceived insufficient action.
Former President Trump's messaging has consistently emphasized "affordability" and included proposals such as cutting tariffs on grocery items and suggesting financial initiatives like 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff rebates. He has publicly stated he "inherited the worst inflation in history" and referred to concerns about affordability as a "con job."
Surveys indicated that three-quarters of respondents, including a majority of Republicans, believed tariffs had led to higher prices. An ABC/Ipsos poll reported 7-in-10 respondents were paying more for groceries and utilities.
Redistricting Developments
The Supreme Court issued a 6-3 decision allowing a new congressional map in Texas to proceed. While a lower court had identified it as an illegal racial gerrymander, the high court's majority indicated it appeared to be a legal partisan gerrymander. Former President Trump has expressed hopes that this redrawn map could result in a net gain of five seats for Republicans. In response, Democrats are pursuing redistricting efforts in California and potentially Virginia, and a judge in Utah has approved a map expected to create a new Democratic-leaning House seat.
Party Dynamics and Retirements
Internal discussions within the Republican Party regarding its direction and the influence of former President Trump have been noted. A record 51 members of the House have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, with 30 being Republicans and 21 Democrats. A higher rate of retirements in one party can signal concerns about future election prospects. Support for former President Trump among Latino voters has shown a decline, with surveys suggesting a link to economic concerns and immigration policies.