Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the coast of Texas on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and flash flood risks to the U.S. Gulf Coast before weakening to a low pressure area.
Storm Development and Path
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Arthur was located approximately 40 miles east-northeast of Port Connor, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm was expected to move inland over southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night.
The storm weakened to a low pressure area by approximately 10 p.m. CT, as reported by the National Weather Service (NWS). Arthur was originally named after wind speeds reached 39 mph on Wednesday morning off the coast of Texas.
Warnings and Hazards
A tropical storm warning was in effect from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. The NWS warned that "life-threatening flooding" may continue in the southeastern United States, with the primary hazard being heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, were expected through early Friday along a large part of the U.S. Gulf Coast. The highest flash flood potential over the next three days was forecast from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to Montgomery, Alabama, with the highest rainfall totals expected near Mobile, Alabama.
Brazoria County, Texas, south of Houston, recorded 55 mph winds on Wednesday morning.
Expert Analysis
"The main threat is a prolonged multi-day heavy rainfall event that could produce life-threatening flash flooding," said NHC Director Michael Brennan. He noted that the heavy rainfall threat will persist even after Arthur dissipates.
Zachary Handlos, atmospheric scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology, stated that the flash flood potential depends on how quickly the storm moves, as stationary rainfall over an area increases flooding risk. He noted that parts of the Southeast had experienced prolonged drought before this month, and saturated soils may exacerbate localized flooding.
Prior Weather Events
On Monday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 counties due to severe storms.
Hurricane Season Context
The average date for the first named Atlantic storm (1991–2020) is June 20. Arthur formed slightly ahead of schedule. The 2026 Atlantic storm season forecast calls for fewer storms than average, partly due to the recently declared El Niño. NOAA predicted in May a relatively mild season: 8 to 14 named tropical storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes. Although El Niño is associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane formation, warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and Atlantic could still fuel storms if conditions align.