The Bellwethers of Brexit: Five Constituencies, Ten Years Later

The Guardian revisits five constituencies that predicted the 2016 EU referendum outcome and speaks to residents about the legacy of Brexit.

Torridge and West Devon (57% Leave)

Tony Rutherford, a fish merchant who voted Leave to support the fishing industry, described Brexit as a "disaster from day one."

He cited a minimal increase in fishing opportunities under the Johnson deal, paired with significant additional export costs since January 2021. One shipment worth £47,000 was delayed for five days and ruined; he received only £11,000 in compensation.

"I now have extra costs of around £330 per shipment and have lost about eight loads worth between £15,000 and £50,000 due to customs issues."

Rutherford expressed regret over his vote.

Ceredigion (54.6% Remain)

Former Liberal Democrat MP Mark Williams, who campaigned for Remain, lost his seat in 2017. He attributed the loss partly to the Brexit result. The constituency is now part of Ceredigion Preseli.

Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake noted that local agriculture has suffered due to reduced funding cycles and new export paperwork. Lake observed that Brexit drew attention to constitutional matters and boosted support for Plaid Cymru.

Banff and Buchan (54% Remain)

David Milne, chair of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said fishermen voted Leave for more control but now feel betrayed. EU vessels fish in waters that Scottish fishermen voluntarily closed to protect cod stocks.

He described the outcome as "lies."

Romford (69.2% Leave)

Neither Sue Connelly nor Osman Dervish, both former Conservative activists, responded to requests for comment. Former council leader Michael White and deputy leader Dilip Patel expressed "mixed feelings" about Brexit.

Patel cited pressures on schools and the NHS from EU migration. White said the NHS has not received promised funds and has worsened. Both lost their council seats to Reform UK in the May 2025 local elections, a result they believe was influenced by Brexit divisions. They refused offers to defect to Reform.

Kettering (61% Leave)

Former Conservative MP Philip Hollobone, who lost his seat in 2024, blamed Reform UK for splitting the vote. He said the Conservatives failed to deliver on promised immigration controls after Brexit and criticized the Johnson deal as "suboptimal."

"Brexit's potential has not been realized—but it is not Brexit's fault. It is the fault of the politicians."