Middle East Tensions Escalate Amid US-Israeli Strikes and Iranian Protests

Tensions in the Middle East have significantly escalated following reported military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran around February 28. These actions have led to widespread international debate, regional repercussions, and substantial economic impacts. Key reports indicated these strikes included the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. Simultaneously, Iran has been grappling with ongoing internal protests since December 28, which have been met with a government crackdown. Australia, a close US ally, has publicly supported these actions, citing a goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and has deployed military assets to the United Arab Emirates while issuing urgent travel warnings for its citizens in the region.

Escalation of Middle East Conflict

Reported military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran around February 28 instigated a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Initial reports indicated that these strikes included the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, prompting some nations to extend condolences. The US president was reported to have commented on Khamenei's death.

Iran's deputy foreign minister accused the United States and Israel of committing "terrorist acts," specifically citing Khamenei's assassination, and characterized the situation as an "illegal war imposed on Iran."

Iran reportedly vowed to retaliate, asserting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of daily global oil and gas shipments. Such a prolonged conflict could severely disrupt global energy markets. Iran is known to possess an arsenal of short-range missiles and mines along its coastline.

The conflict reportedly expanded, with Iran launching strikes against Israel, Lebanon, the UAE, and Kuwait. An Iranian projectile reportedly struck near Australia's Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE, causing a fire and damaging an accommodation block and a medical facility, though fortunately no Australian personnel were injured.

Reports of casualties emerged from various incidents. Two individuals were reportedly shot near an Iranian Australian citizen during protests on January 8. Negin Ghadimi, a 28-year-old bio-electrical engineer, was reportedly killed during anti-government protests. In a separate incident, three Australian personnel were confirmed to be aboard a US submarine involved in the destruction of an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, an event that reportedly killed 87 people. US Secretary Pete Hegseth characterized this as a "quiet death" and a warning.

Internal Protests and Iranian Government Response

Demonstrations across Iran began on December 28 due to economic conditions, subsequently shifting focus to the country's clerical leadership and increasing in scale and participation. Protests escalated in a city south of Tehran on January 8 following a communications blackout. Eyewitnesses reported a significant presence of individuals from various generations and social classes chanting anti-government slogans.

Security forces reportedly used tear gas, fired upon, and beat protesters. An Iranian Australian citizen reported witnessing two individuals shot near him and later observed significant bloodshed. Two of his friends, protesting in Nazi Abad (Tehran) and Shahreza (near Isfahan), were reportedly killed during violent suppression on January 8 and 9. Images of victims, some as young as 16, were shared on social media.

The US-based rights group HRANA reported at least 618 protest gatherings nationwide, spanning 187 cities and all 31 provinces. HRANA indicated over 2,600 protesters had been killed, with an additional 1,700 cases under investigation. Opposition network Iran International, based in London, claimed the death toll could be as high as 12,000. Later reports from HRANA indicated at least 38 fatalities, including 29 civilians, four security force members, and five protesters under 18, with 2,217 individuals arrested. Iranian chief justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i stated authorities would "confront the rioters to the very last person."

Regime tactics reportedly included displaying numerous bodies at a Tehran morgue as an intimidation tactic and conducting military funerals for security personnel, accusing protesters of being "armed terrorists" without providing evidence. A family friend was reportedly coerced into signing documents stating their deceased children were members of the regime's Basij militia to retrieve their bodies, with a reported fee of $10,000 if not identified as such. Eyewitnesses reported hearing regime forces speaking Arabic, suggesting potential involvement of proxy militias. The Institute for the Study of War noted Iraqi militias, often used by Iran, may be more inclined to use lethal force.

HRANA expressed concerns for 19,000 individuals detained, warning of potential extrajudicial executions. Widespread telecommunications disruptions, including internet access, were also reported.

International Reactions to Strikes

The US and Israeli military actions against Iran prompted diverse international responses:

• Condemnation from the Global South: Many nations in the global south, including China, Pakistan, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, Oman, Cuba, Malaysia, and Indonesia, widely condemned the actions as illegal. They expressed concern that negotiations between the US and Iran regarding its nuclear program were not allowed to conclude. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, asserted that international law forbids targeting heads of state. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa questioned the justification, stating self-defense typically responds to armed invasion. Brazil, Cuba, and Malaysia cited violations of international law, including sovereign equality, non-interference, and peaceful dispute resolution. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attributed instigation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Oman, which reported downing two drones and a third crashing near Salalah port, advised the US against deeper involvement. Indonesia expressed regret over stalled negotiations and offered to restart dialogue.

• Support from Western Governments: Western governments, including the United States, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, publicly supported the actions. They cited goals of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and threatening international peace and security. US President Donald Trump indicated the conflict could extend beyond initial estimations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney supported the US in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and exporting terrorism.

• International Law Concerns: A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres indicated that international law had been broken by the United States, Israel, and Iran. Professor Siphamandla Zondi of the University of Johannesburg characterized the conflict as having "imperialist undertones and motives." Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of International Relations, reported concerns regarding systematic erosion of international law. Heraldo Muñoz, a former foreign minister of Chile, condemned the Iranian government but stated the actions were a violation of international law. Analysts noted the Trump administration did not seek approval from the UN Security Council or domestic elected representatives for its actions.

• Other Reactions: Europe's response appeared less pronounced compared to other international matters. Amitav Acharya suggested the US's current approach relies more on coercion, contrasting with China's increasing soft power. Russia might benefit as international focus shifts from Ukraine. Some commentators clarified that their criticism of the conflict did not imply support for the Iranian government. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized the strikes as "unilateral military action" that escalates tensions.

Australia's Response and Deployments

Australia's Albanese government swiftly expressed support for the US and Israeli military actions, describing this as a significant shift in foreign policy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, and Defence Minister Richard Marles issued a joint statement offering "unreserved support" hours after the initial strikes around February 28.

Rationale for Support

The government's rationale included preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and threatening international peace and security. Albanese and Wong also referenced alleged attacks in Melbourne and Sydney in 2024, attributed to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the firebombing of the Adass Israel synagogue. Australia had previously expelled Iran's ambassador and designated the IRGC a state sponsor of terrorism following these 2024 incidents.

Military Deployments

Australia deployed military assets to the United Arab Emirates. This included an E-7A Wedgetail military surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, accompanied by approximately 85 Australian Defence Force personnel, and Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs). Albanese described this deployment as "defensive," aiming to protect civilians, including Australians, and support regional partners. He stated that ADF assets would operate under the right of collective self-defense, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter, and affirmed Australia was not a "protagonist." Wong stated Australia was participating in "collective self-defense" with Gulf countries and was not deploying ground troops into Iran or engaging in offensive actions. The E-7A Wedgetail is assisting in the defense of the UAE and feeding information into the Combined Air Operations Centre in Qatar.

Australian Personnel on US Submarine

Three Australian personnel were confirmed to be aboard a US submarine involved in the destruction of an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. Prime Minister Albanese stated that "no Australian personnel have participated in any offensive action against Iran."

Travel Warnings and Consular Services

Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) issued urgent travel warnings for the Middle East. The Smartraveller website for Iran was updated to "do not travel to Iran" and advised Australians to "leave Iran as soon as possible, if it’s safe to do so." The warnings cited airstrikes in various locations, including Tehran, a high risk of reprisal attacks, further regional escalation, and military conflict. Australians, including dual nationals, were noted to be at a high risk of detention. The Australian embassy in Iran has suspended operations, significantly limiting consular assistance. Similar warnings were issued for Israel and Lebanon, recommending departure while commercial options remain available. Australia had previously withdrawn dependents of officials from Israel and Lebanon due to a deteriorating security situation, and offered voluntary evacuation for dependents in Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE.

Legal and Diplomatic Debates in Australia

Australia's support for the US-Israeli actions prompted significant internal debate regarding international law and Australia's foreign policy.

Government's Stance on Legality

Albanese, Wong, and Marles consistently maintained that the question of the strikes' legality was "a matter for the United States and Israel," citing a lack of access to relevant intelligence. Wong stated Australia was not in a position to determine the legal basis for these decisions. She emphasized Australia's support for the Iranian people against the current regime.

Expert Criticism

International law experts criticized Australia's stance. Professor Ben Saul described the attack on Iran as "clearly a violation of the ban on the use of force under the UN charter and international law," arguing that domestic criminal acts in Australia did not justify military self-defense against Iran. Professor Donald Rothwell stated that no basis under the UN Charter or Security Council resolution authorized the use of force. Allen Weiner of Stanford Law described the US attacks as "quite clearly illegal."

Professor Rothwell noted that Article 51 of the UN Charter provides a firm legal basis for Australia's "collective self-defense" decision, but contrasted this with the initial strikes on Iran, which he described as resting on "dubious or non-existent" legal grounds. He highlighted that Australian personnel assigned to the Wedgetail aircraft would be considered combatants under international humanitarian law, making them legitimate targets for other combatants.

Internal Labor Dissent

Quiet discomfort emerged within the Labor backbench, particularly among left-faction MPs, regarding the government's supportive stance. Former Labor foreign minister Bob Carr expressed concern that Australia was not strongly advocating for international law. Former Labor senator Doug Cameron criticized Prime Minister Albanese's backing, suggesting a lack of independent action. The Labor Against War group announced plans to circulate a motion condemning the US and Israeli actions as "an illegal act of aggression," linking it to the AUKUS security pact and drawing parallels to the ALP's opposition to the 2003 Iraq War.

Opposition Views

Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson stated the Liberal party would support Australian assistance if it were deemed to be in the national interest. Liberal MP Andrew Hastie commented that the global rules-based order no longer exists, with force now dominating geopolitics, and expressed a preference for a powerful US re-establishing deterrence. He described US President Donald Trump's Iran strategy as a "huge miscalculation" and questioned the timing and lack of consultation with allies. Opposition leaders Angus Taylor and Ted O’Brien urged Australians to heed official advice, with O'Brien stating Israel has the right to defend itself and Iranians have the right to live free of oppression.

Global Order Shift

The Australian government's shift aligns with a broader international perspective suggesting a transformation of the global order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Australian Liberal MP Andrew Hastie articulated the view that the "old order" or the post-WWII international system is no longer in effect.

Economic and Humanitarian Impacts

The conflict in the Middle East has had significant economic and humanitarian repercussions, impacting Australia.

Economic Impact on Australia

The conflict, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz, has led to increased global oil and commodity prices. This directly impacted Australian consumers through higher petrol and energy costs, contributing to inflation and potentially higher interest rates. Australia imports roughly 90% of its liquid fuel. Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressed the substantial economic consequences, stating it would exacerbate existing challenges like inflation. Economists projected "a small economic negative" but an increase in overall national income due to boosts in energy and fear commodities.

Government Economic Measures

On April 1, the Albanese government implemented measures to provide fuel price relief, including halving the petrol excise by 26.3 cents per liter. The government also explored alternative global fuel sources and introduced an underwriting scheme for Australian importers to secure spot cargoes. Economists offered varied perspectives, with some characterizing the excise cut as "good politics but poor economics" that could increase demand and lead to further interest rate hikes, while others argued it targeted vulnerable populations and aimed to maintain demand.

Humanitarian Crisis

The conflict in Iran is contributing to a humanitarian crisis. The United Nations reported over 3 million people displaced, including 3.2 million since February 28, with a growing number seeking refuge in Türkiye. Australia offered asylum to seven members of the Iranian women's football team; however, most chose to return to Iran, with Iranian state media claiming they faced "unprecedented threats and pressure."

Public Opinion and Domestic Politics

Public sentiment in Australia regarding the conflict and the government's response has been mixed.

Public Opinion Surveys

A Resolve Political Monitor survey indicated that a majority of Australians (61%) desired the country to remain uninvolved in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, with only 13% favoring Australian involvement. Less than one-third of voters supported the Albanese government's initial backing of the strikes. There was stronger support (39%) for deploying a surveillance aircraft and missiles to aid in defending the UAE. A Guardian Essential poll found that only one in four Australians approved of the US-Israel military actions, and approximately one-third supported the federal government's decision to deploy military assets. Despite the desire for non-involvement, 47% of Australians supported regime change in Tehran. A significant majority (85%) expressed concern about the conflict's impact on oil and commodity prices and the cost of living.

Preference for Middle Power Alliances

The Guardian Essential poll also highlighted a preference among Australians for closer ties with "middle powers" like Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. One-third of respondents wished for Australia to become less close to the US in diplomatic and trade relationships, with 65% choosing to strengthen ties with "middle powers" over prioritizing the relationship with the US.

Domestic Political Landscape

Prime Minister Albanese's approval ratings have declined, though Labor maintained a lead over the Coalition in recent opinion polls. A RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll indicated 61% of respondents attributed the surge in fuel prices to former US President Donald Trump, with 14% blaming the Australian government. The conflict contributed to existing social cohesion tensions within Australia, with some local Iranian communities welcoming the strikes while some mosques held or planned memorials for Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. New South Wales Premier Chris Minns condemned these memorials, leading to criticism and the cancellation of a grant and an iftar dinner.