A combination of reports from Cox Automotive, based on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, indicates a complex and shifting landscape for used vehicle prices in early 2026.
Summary
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks wholesale auction prices, increased significantly in early 2026 before declining in April. Wholesale prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while retail prices have not decreased at the same rate. These fluctuations are occurring against a backdrop of rising energy costs and broader economic uncertainty.
Detailed Timeline and Data Points
February 2026: Index Reaches High
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reached 212.3 in February. This represented a 4% increase year-over-year and a 0.8% increase from January. Cox Automotive reported this was the index's highest level since September 2023.
April 2026: Index Declines
In April, the index dropped 1.6% compared to the previous month, marking the first month-over-month decline since October 2025. The year-over-year increase for April was 1.8%.
"Wholesale prices moved higher than usual through February," noted Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive.
Full-Year 2026 Forecast
Cox Automotive had previously forecast a 2% year-over-year increase in the index by the end of 2026 relative to December 2025 levels.
This forecast followed minimal growth of 0.4% in both 2024 and 2025, which contrasted with significant declines of 7% in 2023 and nearly 15% in 2022. The declines followed substantial price increases of 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Historical Context
Data from Cox Automotive, which extends back to 1998, indicates that the average year-end index movement, excluding the 2020-2022 period, is an increase of approximately 2%. Current used vehicle prices remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Sales Forecast for 2026
Regarding sales, Cox Automotive anticipates a 0.9% year-over-year decrease in total used vehicle sales, totaling 38.3 million units. This forecast includes a 0.7% decrease in used vehicle retail sales, projected to reach 20.3 million units.
Factors Reported to Influence the Market
Credit and Consumer Spending
- Auto Loan Rates: A decline in new and used auto loan rates to their lowest level in a year was reported.
- Tax Refunds: An expected increase in consumer tax refunds was cited as a factor contributing to stronger demand, particularly noted as fueling a strong spring selling season.
- Energy Prices: The average price of gas was reported at $4.30 per gallon at the end of April, an increase of $1.12 from the same time the previous year.
Dealer and Wholesale Activity
Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, reported solid demand at Manheim auctions since the beginning of 2026, with higher sales conversion rates indicating dealer interest. He noted that prices moved higher than usual through February.
Geopolitical Factors
"Geopolitical events, such as the war in Iran, introduce economic risks that could affect consumer purchasing in the short term," Robb added.
Vehicle Type and Retail Trends
- Demand Shift: Affordability concerns were cited as driving demand for older and electric vehicles.
- Retail Prices: Retail used vehicle prices for consumers typically follow wholesale trends, though retail prices have not decreased at the same rate in recent years. The average listed price for a used vehicle was $25,390 in March, an increase of about $100 from February.
- Electric Vehicles: Used EV listings averaged over $9,200 above the overall used vehicle market. The Manheim EV index rose 7.2% year-over-year and 1.4% from March.