A multi-faceted conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified in late February 2026, stemming from widespread anti-government protests in Iran and escalating into direct military engagements. The conflict has resulted in significant civilian casualties, a disputed school strike, and a leadership transition in Iran following the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Diplomatic efforts and international concerns about regional stability are ongoing amidst heightened military presence in the Middle East.
Escalation of Conflict and Initial Triggers
Anti-government protests erupted across Iran starting in late December 2025, initially driven by economic grievances, including currency collapse, inflation, and rising living costs.
These demonstrations evolved into broader calls for political change and challenges to the ruling theocracy, spreading across all 31 provinces and involving diverse segments of the population.
The Iranian government responded with a severe crackdown, deploying security forces, using live fire, and implementing widespread internet and communication blackouts.
In this context of internal unrest, U.S. and Israeli military forces initiated a significant assault on Iran on February 28, 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump characterized these operations as "major combat operations" and indicated a desire for regime change in Tehran. Iran responded by launching its own missile and drone attacks against targets in Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf region, and allied nations.
Deadly Strike on Minab Girls' School
On February 28, 2026, the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, was struck during the initial phase of military operations. Iranian state media reported varying casualty figures, with estimates ranging from 40 to 180 children killed and dozens more injured. International bodies, including UNESCO and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai, condemned the attack.
The school was located adjacent to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval base. Satellite imagery and expert analysis indicated that the school building had been physically separated from the military base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. CNN analysis and other expert reviews identified missile debris found at the site as consistent with a U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile.
U.S. President Trump initially attributed the strike to Iran, citing "inaccurate munitions."
He later stated he was not fully informed and would accept the Pentagon's investigation findings. A preliminary U.S. military investigation later determined that a U.S. Tomahawk missile likely struck the school due to a "targeting error," possibly caused by outdated intelligence or coordinates.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth affirmed that the U.S. does not intentionally target civilians and confirmed an ongoing investigation. Israel denied involvement, stating its forces were not operating in the area.
Congressional Democrats requested a thorough investigation into the incident, examining culpability, the role of artificial intelligence in target selection, and the adequacy of civilian harm mitigation efforts within the Pentagon.
Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed as New Supreme Leader
Following the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, in alleged U.S. and Israeli strikes, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader. Iranian state media confirmed the appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, 2026, or earlier internally. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was reportedly wounded during the initial bombardment campaign, sustaining a fractured foot, a bruise around his left eye, and minor facial lacerations, which Iran's ambassador to Cyprus attributed to the same strike that killed his father.
Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-ranking cleric with a low public profile, is known for his close ties to the IRGC and his hardline, anti-Western stance. His selection, reportedly under pressure from the IRGC, generated controversy due to the perception of hereditary succession, which runs contrary to the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
U.S. President Trump expressed disapproval of the appointment, describing Mojtaba as "unacceptable" and a "lightweight," and indicating a desire for U.S. influence over Iran's leadership selection. Israel's defense minister stated any new supreme leader would be an "unequivocal target for elimination."
Mojtaba Khamenei's initial actions included reportedly directing missile strikes, with an image of a projectile bearing "At your service, Sayyid Mojtaba" posted on state broadcaster IRIB’s Telegram channel. The IRGC and the Assembly of Experts pledged allegiance to the new leader.
Protests and Crackdown Casualties
The anti-government protests, which began in late 2025, involved widespread demonstrations across Iran. The government's crackdown was extensive, employing live fire, snipers, and paramilitary forces. Reported casualties varied significantly:
- The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported a rising death toll, with figures reaching over 7,000 fatalities, including protesters, security forces, children, and non-demonstrating civilians. HRANA also reported over 50,000 detentions.
- Other activist groups and internal sources cited figures as high as 12,000 to 30,000 deaths, with a surgeon eyewitness estimating over 20,000 nationwide.
- Iranian state media and officials initially reported "casualties" and later provided lower figures, such as 3,117 deaths, often attributing violence to "terrorists" or foreign influence.
A nationwide internet and international phone service blackout was imposed from January 8, making independent verification of figures challenging. Reports indicated the use of refrigerated trucks for body collection, and coercion of families regarding funerals and narratives of deaths. Celebrations over Ali Khamenei's death were reported in some areas, while security forces dispersed crowds.
The judiciary chief threatened swift trials and the death penalty for protesters on charges like "enemy of God." The case of Erfan Soltani, initially sentenced to death, was reportedly postponed or canceled following U.S. warnings.
U.S. and International Response to Protests
U.S. President Trump issued repeated warnings to Iran against killing protesters and conducting mass executions, threatening "very strong action." He later claimed that executions had been halted, leading to a temporary softening of his stance. The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran and deployed additional military assets to the Middle East, including aircraft carriers.
International Responses- G7, UN, and EU: These bodies expressed grave concern over the crackdown and threatened additional sanctions. The EU sanctioned 15 Iranian officials and considered designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
- China and Russia: They called for dialogue and non-interference in Iran's internal affairs.
- Middle Eastern Allies: Several regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, and Turkey, urged the U.S. against military intervention, citing risks of regional instability and economic impact. They also denied use of their airspace for attacks on Iran.
- Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: He encouraged protests and offered to lead a transitional government, advocating for U.S. intervention.
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks and Military Buildup
Prior to the direct military attacks, the U.S. and Iran were engaged in indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, with discussions held in Geneva. The U.S. demanded a permanent end to uranium enrichment, limits on ballistic missiles, and cessation of support for regional proxies. Iran maintained its right to peaceful enrichment, rejected proposals for transferring uranium abroad, and sought sanctions relief, refusing to discuss its missile program or support for proxies. These talks concluded without an agreement on Thursday, February 27, 2026, two days before the military operations began.
The U.S. had amassed a significant military presence in the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford carrier groups, destroyers, bombers, and fighter jets, described as the largest buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion. U.S. officials cited Iran's uranium enrichment to 60% purity and the alleged resumption of its ballistic missile program as reasons for concern.
Iran warned that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East and Israel would be considered legitimate targets if attacked. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported being unable to verify Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile since U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025, which reportedly damaged Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz.
Iran alleged that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted the Natanz enrichment facility again during the current conflict, a claim the IAEA stated it had "no indication" of, while urging military restraint.
Broader Regional Impact of Military Conflict
The direct military conflict rapidly expanded across the Middle East:
U.S. Operations & Casualties- U.S. military operations targeted Iranian command and control centers, naval assets, military infrastructure, and leaders. They claimed to have destroyed nine naval ships and over 20 vessels, and hit more than 2,000 targets.
- U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the killing of Farhad Shakeri, allegedly involved in an assassination plot, and predicted U.S. and Israeli air forces would gain "complete control of Iranian skies" within a week.
- U.S. Central Command reported three U.S. service members killed and five wounded in operations against Iran, the first confirmed U.S. fatalities. A friendly fire incident in Kuwait resulted in three U.S. F-15 fighter jets mistakenly shot down.
- Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks towards Israel, U.S. bases in Bahrain and Iraqi Kurdistan, and targets in the UAE and Qatar. These attacks included a claimed strike on a satellite communications center in Haifa.
- One woman died in Tel Aviv from an Iranian missile. In the UAE, two individuals were killed by falling debris from missile strikes.
- Strikes on Tehran oil depots caused thick black smoke, toxic rainfall, and casualties.
- Cultural heritage sites, including Golestan Palace and Chehel Sotoon Palace, were also reportedly damaged.
- Regional countries like Bahrain, UAE, and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles.
- Spain denied the U.S. permission to use its military bases for attacks on Iran.
- The conflict contributed to a significant rise in global oil prices, exceeding $100 per barrel, and further depreciated the Iranian rial to record lows.
- Iran's network of proxy militant groups, the "Axis of Resistance," reportedly faced setbacks following Israeli actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the overthrow of Syria's Bashar Assad in 2024.