Government Shutdown's Potential Impact on Thanksgiving Air Travel Detailed

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Government Shutdown's Potential Impact on Thanksgiving Air Travel Detailed

Thanksgiving travel periods typically involve high passenger volumes and potential weather challenges. The potential extension of a government shutdown could introduce additional operational complexities.

Staffing and Operational Reductions

Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents have been operating without pay. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported an increase in employee absences, leading to flight reductions for safety maintenance.

  • Staffing-related delays have occurred at airports such as Orlando, Los Angeles, Houston, and New York City. Most disruptions have been brief.
  • Government officials indicated that conditions could worsen during the holiday season if the government shutdown persists.
  • On Wednesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced a 10% reduction in airline traffic across 40 locations, effective Friday, citing staffing interruptions. Duffy stated that while he anticipated "additional disruptions" and "frustration," the primary objective remained maintaining air space safety.

Aviation and travel experts anticipate increased delays, cancellations, and longer TSA wait times if the shutdown continues until Thanksgiving. William J. McGee, a senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, projected that a significant number of travelers could face stranding during a peak travel period.

Air Travel During a Continued Shutdown

The Thanksgiving travel period is one of the busiest for air travel annually. The Sunday following Thanksgiving last year recorded approximately 3.09 million passengers screened by the TSA.

Philip Mann, an aviation expert at Embry‑Riddle Aeronautical University, noted a distinction between the current situation and the 2018 government shutdown, which commenced days before Christmas. Mann indicated that in 2018, employees had not yet missed a full paycheck.

If the shutdown continues until Thanksgiving, air traffic controllers and TSA agents would have worked without pay for over eight weeks. Mann projects an increase in employee absences due to fatigue and financial strain, potentially leading to more delays and cancellations. McGee stated that travel disruptions can initiate a cascade effect, influencing multiple flights and airports, commenting, "Delays and cancellations beget delays and cancellations."

Impact if Shutdown Ends Before Thanksgiving

Aviation experts suggest that travel disruptions could persist if the federal government reopens in close proximity to Thanksgiving.

  • McGee explained that flight operations require time to stabilize following delays, attributing this to flights often operating at near-capacity, which limits rebooking options. He noted that this can lead to disruptions extending for periods beyond a few hours, sometimes up to a week.
  • Mann added that staffing shortages might continue post-shutdown, as some air traffic controllers would require retraining prior to returning to duty. He specified that ongoing training and policy updates are standard procedures for these personnel.
  • Mann also indicated that the efficiency of holiday travel would be influenced by the preparatory measures taken by airports and airlines.

Travel Recommendations for Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving weekend is characterized by high airport traffic due to the concentration of travel within a short timeframe, in contrast to more extended holiday periods. Delays during Thanksgiving weekend could reduce the duration of planned trips.

Katy Nastro, a travel expert from the flight deals application Going, recommended maintaining travel plans. Nastro expressed cautious optimism regarding air travel plans, advising individuals to proceed with flight bookings.

Her recommendations included:

  • Selecting tickets with flight credit options for flexibility.
  • Choosing nonstop flights.
  • Scheduling early departures.

Mann recommended allocating sufficient time for security checks, particularly if the shutdown extends through Thanksgiving. While travel disruptions are a concern, Mann noted that the FAA's decision to reduce flights due to staffing shortages indicates a prioritization of safety. He concluded, "Flying is gonna continue to be safe. It just might become increasingly inconvenient."