Uganda's General Election: Museveni Secures Seventh Term Amidst Opposition Allegations and Post-Election Incidents

Uganda's general election saw incumbent President Yoweri Museveni secure a seventh term in office, extending his nearly four-decade rule. The contest primarily pitted President Museveni against Robert Kyagulanyi, widely known as Bobi Wine, a pop star-turned-politician. The electoral period was marked by significant challenges, including widespread logistical delays, a nationwide internet shutdown, and allegations of repression and fraud from the opposition, all of which authorities denied.

Election Overview and Key Candidates

Uganda's general election, which included presidential and parliamentary seats, was originally scheduled for Thursday, January 15. Approximately 21.6 million registered voters were eligible to participate.

Yoweri Museveni, 81, of the National Resistance Movement (NRM), sought his seventh consecutive term. He first came to power in 1986 as the leader of a guerrilla army, with his lengthy tenure enabled by constitutional amendments removing both age and term limits. Museveni's campaign slogan, "Protecting the Gains," emphasized stability and progress, and he pledged to elevate Uganda to middle-income status by 2040.

Supporters cited peace and development during his leadership, as well as Uganda's role as Africa's largest host of refugees. Critics, however, accused his government of human rights abuses, harassment of opposition figures, and weakening independent institutions.

Bobi Wine, 43, represented the National Unity Platform (NUP) and emerged as the primary opposition challenger. Known as the "ghetto president" from his music career in Kampala's slums, Wine focused his campaigns on critical issues such as youth unemployment, human rights, corruption, and wealth redistribution. His platform centered on a "Protest Vote," emphasizing liberation, freedom, and generational change. Wine previously challenged Museveni in the 2021 election, securing 35% of the vote against Museveni's 58%, and subsequently led the NUP to become the largest opposition force in parliament.

Eight presidential candidates were on the ballot, including Frank Bulira, Robert Kasibante, Joseph Mabirizi, Nandala Mafabi, Mugisha Muntu, and Mubarak Munyagwa. Six other candidates also participated in the presidential race, with lawyer Nandala Mafabi noted for campaigning on resource management.

Voter Concerns and Pre-Election Environment

Key concerns for voters included economic issues, particularly high youth unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, and disparities in access to quality education and healthcare. Corruption was also a significant issue, with Uganda ranking 140th out of 180 countries on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index.

The pre-election period drew considerable international scrutiny. UN experts warned of a "pervasive climate of fear," and rights groups reported widespread harassment of opposition supporters, including arrests on politically motivated charges. Bobi Wine's rallies were frequently disrupted by security forces, which Amnesty International described as a "brutal campaign of repression." The government maintained these measures were necessary to ensure a peaceful election and prevent the incitement of riots.

The independence of the Electoral Commission was questioned by critics. Simon Byabakama, the head of Uganda's Electoral Commission, reported receiving threats regarding the declaration of results but affirmed that the process would be guided by voters' will and Ugandan law.

Election Day: Delays, Security, and Internet Blackout

On election day, polling experienced widespread logistical delays across the country. Malfunctioning biometric identification kits and the late arrival of polling materials and equipment contributed significantly to these disruptions.

Prior to voting, the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) directed all service providers to suspend internet access. The UCC cited public safety concerns, including preventing "online misinformation, disinformation, electoral fraud... as well as preventing [the] incitement of violence." The UN Human Rights Office expressed "deep worry" over this move.

Bobi Wine's NUP party rejected the official explanation, suggesting the shutdown aimed to impede opposition mobilization and evidence sharing regarding potential election fraud. The internet blackout led to widespread economic and social disruptions, affecting mobile money transactions, online businesses, ride-hailing services, journalism, and online learning.

Security was heightened across the capital, Kampala, with increased patrols and armored vehicles. Security forces were accused of assaulting and detaining Wine's supporters, a claim dismissed by police who stated opposition supporters were disruptive.

Election Results and Aftermath

The Electoral Commission announced provisional results on Friday morning, showing President Museveni with a significant lead. By Saturday, Museveni was officially declared the winner with 72% (7,944,772 votes) of the vote, extending his rule for another five years. Bobi Wine received 25% (2,741,238 votes). Voter turnout was 52.5%.

Bobi Wine rejected the results as "fake," alleging "ballot stuffing" and claiming that the outcome did not reflect voting patterns. He did not provide specific evidence for these claims. The African Union election observer mission reported seeing "no evidence of ballot stuffing." Wine called for non-violent protests.

The post-election period was marked by reports of violence and arrests.

• Authorities reported seven fatalities during election-related incidents. Bobi Wine claimed at least 21 people were killed, while army chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba stated security forces killed 22 opposition supporters.
• NUP lawmaker Muwanga Kivumbi was detained in connection with alleged election-related violence, accused of organizing attacks on a police station and a vote-tallying center. Kivumbi stated 10 people were killed at his home while awaiting parliamentary election results. Police denied the incident at Kivumbi's house, claiming "machete-wielding opposition 'goons'" had attacked a police station, necessitating self-defense.
• Dozens of young individuals were reportedly arrested in Kampala on charges linked to election incidents.
• Bobi Wine's NUP party reported that he was abducted from his Kampala residence. Police denied this, stating Wine remained at his home in an area of "security interest" to prevent chaos. Wine later stated he had evaded a night-time raid by security forces and was in hiding, asserting that his wife and relatives remained under effective house arrest.
• Barbara Kyagulanyi, Bobi Wine's wife, reported that armed men in military uniform forcibly entered their home on Friday night, assaulted her while demanding her husband's location, and caused her to lose consciousness. She was hospitalized for bruises and anxiety. Gen. Kainerugaba denied the allegations, stating his soldiers "do not beat up women."

Bobi Wine stated he would not challenge the election results in court, citing a lack of confidence in the country's judiciary, and urged supporters to engage in peaceful street protests. Museveni accused the opposition of attempting to incite violence, labeling them "terrorists." The Uganda Human Rights Commission (UHRC) acknowledged "technical and procedural" challenges on polling day but stated they did not undermine the overall fairness.

Succession Dynamics and International Context

Speculation continued regarding President Museveni's succession. His son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who heads the army, is widely seen as a potential successor. Gen. Kainerugaba has cultivated a public profile, leading to discussions about a potential hereditary transfer of power, which NRM spokespersons downplayed, citing party processes. Reports indicated a decentralization of authority within the presidency, with various relatives in influential roles.

Uganda, under Museveni, has maintained a strategic position as an ally for Western countries, contributing troops to regional military operations and hosting a significant number of refugees. International observers, including the UN and AU, raised concerns about the election's conduct. The chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee suggested reviewing the U.S. security relationship with Uganda and considering sanctions against specific individuals.