More than 61% of the contiguous United States is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions, the highest level recorded for March since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000. The Western United States is simultaneously facing a severe snow drought, with snowpack levels at record lows across multiple states, raising concerns about water availability, agricultural output, and wildfire risk.
Drought Conditions
National Scope
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, over 61% of the contiguous United States is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought as of March. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index recorded its highest March level since records began in 1895. March 2025 was the third-driest month on record, following July and August 1934 during the Dust Bowl.
Regional Distribution
- 97% of the Southeastern United States is in drought.
- Two-thirds of the Western United States is in drought.
- A separate drought pattern, attributed to the jet stream, affects the South from Texas to the East Coast.
"March 2025 was the third-driest month on record, following July and August 1934 during the Dust Bowl."
Snowpack and Water Storage
Snowpack Levels
Snow surveys across the American West indicate record-low snowpack levels. The 'Snow Water Equivalent' (SWE), which measures moisture frozen within the snow, is exceptionally low:
- California's Sierra Nevada recorded 4.9 inches of SWE, representing 18% of the average.
- The Colorado River headwaters had just over 4 inches of SWE, or 24% of the average, less than half of the previous record low.
- The Great Basin was at 16% of average, the lower Colorado region at 10%, and the Rio Grande at 8%.
Oregon, Colorado, and Utah have reported their lowest statewide snowpack levels since the early 1980s. Snow cover across the West is approximately one-third of its typical level, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. On February 1, water content within the snow was measured below the median at 91% of weather stations in the West.
Causes
Federal analysts reported that even with near-normal precipitation, every major river basin in the West faced snow drought at the beginning of March. An unprecedented March heatwave caused rapid melt-off, resulting in more than 1,500 monthly high-temperature records broken. Climatologists attribute the lack of cold air and snowstorms to a persistent ridge of high pressure. The vapor pressure deficit was recorded at 77% above normal in the West from January through March, more than 25% higher than the previous record.
Reservoir Levels
California's reservoirs are currently near or above historic averages due to robust rains. However, Lake Mead (25% full) and Lake Powell (33% full) in the Colorado River Basin, which hold about 90% of the basin's storage, are at critically low levels. Officials are relocating a floating marina on Lake Powell in anticipation of receding water levels.
Expert Observations
Russ Schumacher, Colorado's state climatologist, stated that many SNOTEL monitoring stations in the Colorado Rockies are reporting record to near-record low snow levels, with conditions unseen since the 1980-81 winter. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist, described the March heatwave as "likely among the most statistically anomalous extreme heat events ever observed in the American south-west" and stated it will likely decimate the 2025-26 water year snowpack. Andy Reising, manager of California DWR's Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit, indicated it is increasingly likely this season will see one of the lowest April 1 snowpacks on record.
Colorado River Management
Negotiations and Agreements
The seven Western states relying on the Colorado River have failed to reach a long-term agreement on water management, missing multiple deadlines. California, Arizona, and Nevada announced a short-term plan to reduce water use over 2027-2028, identifying more than 3.2 million acre-feet of water cutbacks. Under this plan:
- California will reduce its Colorado River water use by approximately 13% in 2027 and 2028.
- Arizona and Nevada agreed to larger cutbacks.
- The reductions are contingent on federal and other funding.
The three states proposed decreasing their Colorado River allocations by 27%, 10%, and 17% respectively. Arizona, California, and Nevada governors issued a joint statement urging Upper Basin states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) to offer more concessions.
Federal Framework
The Trump administration has informed water managers that it is developing a 10-year framework for mandatory water reductions on the Colorado River, with reassessments every two years. The framework would require cuts of up to 3 million acre-feet per year from California, Arizona, and Nevada—nearly double the 1.6 million acre-feet per year the states had voluntarily proposed. The Bureau of Reclamation has initiated consultations with states, tribes, and Mexico.
Background
The Colorado River supplies water to approximately 40 million people in seven states, 5.5 million acres of farmland, 30 tribal nations, and parts of Mexico. River flow has declined since 2000, with research indicating global warming intensifies dry conditions. February's water supply outlook for the Colorado River basin marked its worst in over three decades, with more than two-thirds of the river's water originating from mountain snow.
"The Colorado River supplies water to approximately 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of farmland."
Statements
JB Hamby, chairman of California's Colorado River Board, said the short-term plan establishes a leadership position to protect the system. John Entsminger of the Southern Nevada Water Authority noted Las Vegas has reduced water use over 25 years and called the deal "a bit of an olive branch" to other states. Colorado Senator John Hickenlooper described the situation in the Colorado Basin as "dire." If no consensus is reached, the federal government could intervene, potentially leading to litigation.
Water Supply and Agricultural Impacts
Municipal Restrictions
Some municipalities have initiated early water restrictions:
- Salt Lake City, Utah requested residents and businesses to conserve water, aiming for a 10 million gallon reduction, while city facilities will cut 10% of their usage.
- Colorado has local orders limiting lawn watering.
- Wyoming residents were warned of potential outdoor irrigation restrictions as early as May.
Economic Impacts
Brad Riesenberg, an owner at Backcountry Snowmobiling in Park City, Utah, reported significant financial losses due to customer cancellations. Jon Meyer, Utah's assistant state climatologist, noted that the current conditions could impact Utah's economic future, including the 2034 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.
Agricultural Concerns
Farmers and ranchers are making adjustments due to smaller water allocations. Agriculture accounts for about 80% of the Colorado River's water supply, including water-intensive crops such as alfalfa and hay. Jeff Masters, a Yale Climate Connections meteorologist, expressed concern about potential impacts on agriculture and food prices, noting that a poor U.S. crop year combined with a predicted El Niño could create global problems.
Wildfire Risk
The rapid snowmelt and drought conditions are expected to impact wildfire risk. Daniel McEvoy, a researcher with the Western Regional Climate Center, explained that snow disappearing earlier than average exposes the ground to warmer spring and summer temperatures, accelerating the drying of soils and vegetation.
Joel Lisonbee, a senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research at the University of Colorado Boulder, stated that without a major change in weather patterns, an extended fire season is anticipated. More than 1.5 million acres have already burned across the US this year, exceeding double the 10-year average.
"More than 1.5 million acres have already burned across the US this year, exceeding double the 10-year average."
Park Williams, a UCLA hydroclimatologist, stated that fire activity responds to heat and drought in an exponential manner. The National Interagency Fire Center warned of a higher-than-normal potential for significant fires in parts of the Southwest later in the spring.
Climate Context
Park Williams attributed the current drought and hotter weather to a combination of natural variability and human-caused climate change, with natural variability being a slightly larger factor. Kathy Jacobs, director of the Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions at the University of Arizona, stated that all weather is now affected by climate change and that current conditions align with expected patterns of extreme heat and intense drought. Climatologists note that drought conditions are peaking earlier than the typical summer peak.
Future Outlook
Meteorologists predict wetter, cooler weather across the West, including some snow, which may represent the peak of the current snow drought. However, many areas are still expected to experience warmer-than-usual conditions. Scientists express limited optimism that the new snow will be sufficient to reverse the deficits. Achieving average conditions by March would necessitate consistent storminess and colder temperatures for several weeks to months, which are not currently forecasted.
NOAA calculated that breaking the drought in eastern Texas would require 19 inches of rain in one month, while most of the Southeast would require more than a foot of rain. A strong El Niño weather pattern is predicted, which can reduce crop yields in other global regions.