Ukraine and Russia Intensify Aerial Campaigns, Target Energy and Civilian Infrastructure

Summary: Over a period spanning several months, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been marked by an intensification of aerial warfare. Both sides have conducted significant strikes against military, energy, and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has deployed a new generation of domestically-produced mid-range and long-range drones to target Russian supply lines, oil refineries, and military facilities deep inside Russian territory, leading to Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledging fuel shortages. Russia has responded with large-scale missile and drone barrages against Ukrainian cities and energy grids, resulting in numerous civilian casualties. Diplomatic efforts, including ceasefires declared for the Orthodox Easter and Victory Day holidays, were short-lived, with both sides reporting violations.

Ukrainian Drone Campaign Targets Russian Logistics and Energy

Ukraine has progressively expanded its use of drones to strike targets deep within Russia and Russian-occupied territories, focusing on military logistics and the energy sector.

• Ukrainian forces have intensified drone attacks on the R-280 highway, a key Russian supply route connecting Rostov-on-Don to occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea. By early June, military cargo traffic on this road reportedly fell by 71%.
• Strikes have targeted bridges connecting Crimea to the mainland, including the Chonhar bridge, where traffic was suspended after drone attacks.
• The campaign, described by Ukrainian officials as a "logistics lockdown," has rendered several highways in southern Ukraine too dangerous for military traffic. Russia has established pontoon bridges as replacements, and the Kerch bridge has become a more critical artery.
• In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have used mid-range drones such as the Dart and Hornet to target Russian logistics convoys. A commander of the K-2 brigade stated the mission is to cut supply lines, which limits the resources available to Russian frontline infantry.

Ukrainian drones have conducted repeated strikes on Russian oil refineries and terminals. Targets have included:

• The Antipinsky oil refinery in the Tyumen region, over 2,000 km from Ukraine.
• The Tamanneftegas LPG terminal in Krasnodar Krai, the largest transshipment complex for liquefied hydrocarbons in southern Russia.
• The Novorossiysk oil terminal, a major Black Sea port, impacting assets of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
• Oil terminals in Crimea and the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk.

"Strikes on Russian oil facilities are designed to reduce the resources funding Russia's war effort." — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has developed new long-range drones capable of traveling more than 3,000 km. The strikes have led to acknowledged fuel shortages in Russia. President Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged a "certain deficit" of fuel, stating that the government is addressing the issue by increasing fuel imports and accelerating repairs at damaged refineries.

• Ukrainian strikes have hit a variety of military targets, including a Be-200 amphibious aircraft, a Ka-27 helicopter, ammunition-carrying vessels, and Pantsir-S1 and Tor anti-aircraft missile systems.
• In the Moscow region, drones targeted the Solnechnogorskaya oil pumping station and the Angstrom microelectronics plant in Zelenograd.
• A coordinated attack struck the Baltic Fleet hub, the Kronstadt Marine Plant, and an ammunition storage warehouse in the Leningrad region.

Russian Aerial Campaign Targets Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure

Russia has responded with large-scale aerial bombardments targeting Ukrainian cities, energy grids, and critical infrastructure, resulting in significant civilian casualties.

• A major overnight attack in September used nearly 400 long-range drones and numerous cruise and ballistic missiles, hitting at least 10 locations across the country with six fatalities and at least 46 injuries.
• A strike on a home in the Kharkiv region killed a father and his three young children, with the pregnant mother surviving. According to the U.N., 2025 was the most fatal year for civilians since 2022.
• In the Odesa region, a Russian drone attack killed two women and a 2-year-old child.
• Russian glide bombs and missile attacks on cities like Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv have resulted in dozens of civilian deaths and injuries.
• A Russian drone struck the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's turbine hall. Both Russia and Ukraine disputed responsibility for the incident.
• The United Nations cultural organization UNESCO expressed alarm after a Russian strike damaged a World Heritage site in Lviv.

Ukrainian officials reported a shift in Russian aerial strategy, moving from predominantly nighttime attacks to daytime barrages. Intelligence also suggested future attacks would target not only energy infrastructure but also water systems, railways, and other critical logistical networks.

• Russia used its new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile in strikes on the Kyiv region, including the city of Bila Tserkva. President Putin claimed the missile travels at Mach 10 and can be as devastating as a nuclear strike. Ukraine reported that its current air defense systems cannot intercept this missile.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefires

Multiple attempts at ceasefires have been announced, but all were short-lived with both sides reporting violations.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Ukraine would abide by the ceasefire but respond to any violations.
• Ukraine's General Staff reported thousands of ceasefire violations by Russian forces, including assaults and shelling. Russia's Defense Ministry reported a similar number of violations by Ukrainian forces.
• The Kyiv Independent reported it could not independently verify the claims from either side.

• Ukraine and Russia each proposed unilateral ceasefires for the May 9 Victory Day period. Russia's ceasefire was intended to protect its scaled-back Red Square parade, which took place without heavy military hardware.
• President Zelenskyy criticized Russia's proposal as "utter cynicism," noting that Russia continued its attacks leading up to the pause.
• A three-day ceasefire was also declared by US President Donald Trump in May. Both sides reported violations, with Ukraine stating Russia launched over 1,000 attacks and Russia claiming Ukraine committed more than 1,000 violations. The UK detained a sanctioned Russian oil tanker, the Smyrtos, in the English Channel during this period.

"Russia is prolonging the conflict to capture more territory and is not interested in peace." — Ukrainian Officials

Despite these proposals, both sides continued attacks. Russia stated its strikes were in retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on its territory. Ukraine has accused Russia of prolonging the conflict to capture more territory and of not being interested in peace. Russia maintains it seeks a permanent settlement, not a temporary ceasefire. Peace talks mediated by the United States have stalled. Kyiv has invited a U.S. delegation to restart negotiations.

Reported Ceasefire Violations and Mutual Accusations

Numerous reports detail specific violations and accusations from both sides regarding the various ceasefire attempts.

• Ukrainian Accusations: Ukraine's General Staff reported that on the first day of the Orthodox Easter truce, Russia committed hundreds of ceasefire violations, including assault actions, shelling, and drone strikes. They reported that Russian forces continued their attacks on Ukrainian positions.
• Russian Accusations: Russia's Defense Ministry reported that Ukrainian forces committed thousands of violations during the Easter truce, including drone strikes that injured people in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Russian authorities also reported that a Ukrainian attack killed two civilians in the Belgorod region.
• Australian Embassy Alert: The Australian Embassy in Kyiv was warned of possible Russian missile strikes following a Kremlin alert to evacuate staff, amid threats of retaliation if a ceasefire was violated.