Federal Inquiry into Antisemitism and Social Cohesion Announced Amid Political Shifts
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced the establishment of a federal Royal Commission into antisemitism and social cohesion. This decision follows weeks of intense lobbying and increased pressure from a diverse coalition of Labor figures, opposition members, Jewish community leaders, legal experts, business leaders, and families affected by a recent attack in Bondi, which one source described as a terror attack. Concerns about rising antisemitism have been a significant issue for Jewish leaders since the October 7 attacks in Israel and the subsequent conflict in Gaza.
Initially, the government expressed reservations about a federal inquiry. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke suggested it could exacerbate social tensions, and Prime Minister Albanese had cited advice from unnamed experts who counselled against it, raising concerns that a national probe could be protracted or polarizing. The subsequent announcement of a state-based inquiry by NSW Premier Chris Minns further intensified calls for a comprehensive Commonwealth response.
Pressure for a federal inquiry intensified, backed by "overwhelming community support" and endorsements from prominent figures, with anti-Jewish hatred warned as a threat to social cohesion.
Pressure for a federal inquiry included a letter organized by former Victorian Deputy Premier James Merlino, endorsed by various Labor figures, which advocated for a Commonwealth royal commission. Signatories warned that anti-Jewish hatred posed a threat to social cohesion. External calls for an inquiry also came from former national security official Chris Taylor, former High Court chief justice Robert French, and former foreign spy boss Nick Warner. Internally, some Labor MPs expressed concerns about decision-making processes, with Health Minister Mark Butler acting as a conduit for community messages to the Prime Minister. Polling indicated public support for a Commonwealth royal commission, rising from 48% to 61% in different periods.
The Prime Minister's position reportedly shifted after private meetings with affected families and survivors, which he stated clarified the Jewish community's feelings of insecurity. Victorian Labor MP Josh Burns confirmed he conveyed community concerns to the Prime Minister. Some advisors, however, expressed concerns that a broad Royal Commission could potentially examine immigration policy, universities, or the ABC, and might be perceived as unfairly targeting Australia's Muslim community.
The inquiry will be led by former High Court judge Virginia Bell. Prime Minister Albanese maintained her appointment despite some criticism from Jewish leaders, though he conceded on the federal inquiry and its terms of reference. The commission is anticipated to last 12 months, with its mechanics, including confidential sessions to avoid prejudicing criminal trials, yet to be finalized. The government's broader response package initially included a review of hate speech laws and enhanced gun controls. The government later adjusted its approach to proposed gun and hate speech legislation, opting to split them after initial political support declined.
Public Opinion and Shifting Political Landscape
Recent federal polls conducted from January to February indicate significant shifts in voter intentions and leadership approval. Multiple surveys, including Resolve Political Monitor, Newspoll, Guardian Essential, YouGov, and Roy Morgan, have consistently shown a rise in support for One Nation.
Primary Vote Shifts
- Labor's primary vote generally declined across polls, ranging from 28.5% to 32%.
- The Coalition's primary vote fluctuated, with some polls reporting figures as low as 18-21% (under Sussan Ley's leadership) and others indicating 23-28%. The Resolve Political Monitor reported One Nation achieving equal primary voter support with the Coalition (23% each) under Angus Taylor's leadership, and even surpassing the Coalition (25% to 20%) under Ley's leadership.
- One Nation's primary vote consistently increased across surveys, reaching a high of 28% in one YouGov/Sky News Pulse poll and 25% in others, representing a significant gain compared to previous months and their 6.4% vote at the last election.
- Greens' primary vote generally ranged between 9% and 13%.
One Nation's primary vote consistently surged in recent polls, reaching highs of 25% to 28% and in some instances, matching or exceeding the Coalition's support, marking a significant gain from their last election result.
Two-Party Preferred (TPP) Results
- Labor maintained a lead over the Coalition in two-party preferred polls, with figures typically ranging from 52-48 to 56.5-43.5.
- However, some polls noted a narrowing of Labor's lead.
- The rise of One Nation also complicated conventional two-party preferred calculations.
Leadership Approval and Preferred Prime Minister
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval ratings generally declined, with various polls showing negative figures ranging from -9 to -22. His approval ratings were typically between 30-39%, with disapproval around 53-56%. His lead as preferred prime minister over the Opposition Leader also narrowed in several surveys.
- Opposition Leader Sussan Ley's net approval ratings also generally remained negative, ranging from -5 to -31.
- Angus Taylor, following his appointment as Liberal leader, recorded a +3 likeability rating in one Resolve poll.
- Pauline Hanson of One Nation achieved the highest net likeability rating among leaders in some polls, with figures up to +7.
Key Voter Concerns
- Cost of living was identified as a top concern for 45% of Australians and an issue affecting 92% of votes.
- Immigration was also a significant concern, with 64-65% of respondents in various polls indicating they believe current immigration levels are too high.
- One poll showed the Liberals taking a lead over Labor on economic management and keeping the cost of living low.
Cost of living and immigration emerged as dominant voter concerns, with 45% citing cost of living as a top issue and 64-65% believing current immigration levels are too high.
Public Perception of Government Response
- Polling indicated that 55-56% of respondents disapproved of Prime Minister Albanese's handling of issues arising from the Bondi attack, while 32-36% approved. Negative media coverage regarding the government's response was noted as a potential factor for Labor's decline in some polls.
- Public support was recorded for several measures following the attack, including banning public display of terrorist symbols (73%), stronger gun laws (63%), more police powers (62%), new laws on hate speech (60%), and a Commonwealth royal commission into antisemitism (56%).
A majority of Australians (55-56%) disapproved of the Prime Minister's handling of issues related to the Bondi attack, yet public support remained strong for measures such as stronger gun laws, hate speech legislation, and a federal royal commission.
Social Cohesion
- Surveys indicated that 70% of individuals believed there was tension between people of different races and nationalities in Australia, and 69% felt hesitant to express their beliefs due to fear of being labeled racist.
- Reports of personal or family experiences with racism increased by five points since September to 33% and 35% respectively.
Significant concerns about social cohesion were evident, with 70% perceiving racial tension and 69% hesitant to express beliefs for fear of being labeled racist, alongside a rise in reported personal experiences with racism.