Myanmar has concluded a phased election process from late 2024 into early 2025, culminating in the formal assumption of the presidency by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. The election, conducted nearly five years after the military's 2021 coup and amidst ongoing civil conflict, saw the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secure significant victories.
International bodies and numerous countries criticized the polls as lacking credibility and fairness, while the military government stated its aim was to return the country to a multi-party democratic system and ensure stability.
Election Timeline and Structure
The phased election process began with an initial round on December 28, 2024, followed by a second phase on Sunday, January 11, and a final round on January 25, 2025. Approximately 265 of Myanmar's 330 townships participated, with voting not taking place in about one-third of the country's territory due to ongoing fighting or control by anti-junta groups.
Myanmar's national legislature comprises 664 seats across two houses, with the military constitutionally holding 25% of seats in each house. The party achieving a combined parliamentary majority forms the new government and selects the president. Parliament was scheduled to convene in March, with a new government assuming duties in April.
Political Context and Restrictions
The elections followed the military's overthrow of a civilian government in a 2021 coup, which led to the detention of former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which had won previous elections, was dissolved along with other anti-junta parties for non-registration under new military rules. Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned. Rebel groups and opposition organizations declined to participate, with some calling for a voter boycott.
A new Election Protection Law, enacted in July, criminalizes actions disrupting or opposing the polls, imposing penalties that include a minimum three-year prison sentence and potentially the death penalty. Over 330 people had been charged under this law, including more than 200 individuals recently. Prominent figures such as film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut, and comedian Ohn Daing received seven-year jail terms for criticizing an election-promoting film. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reported over 22,000 individuals detained for political offenses since the coup.
Voter Participation and Environment
Voter turnout was reported as low. The first phase experienced 52.13% turnout, lower than the 2015 and 2020 elections. Local election officials in urban centers like Yangon reported figures as low as 35%. Overall turnout was estimated at 55%, compared to approximately 70% in the 2020 election. An estimated 3.5 to 4 million voters were unable to participate due to displacement.
Reports from polling stations in Shan State indicated orderly and peaceful voting with volunteers and officials assisting with electronic machines. However, the campaigning period was characterized by fear and intimidation. Journalists in southern Shan State reported being monitored by police and military officials, making public commentary difficult due to concerns about repercussions. Voters in Mandalay expressed reluctance to speak publicly about politics. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing had previously warned that non-voters were impeding "progress toward democracy."
Incidents During the Election Period
The election period was marked by ongoing conflict and specific incidents:
- Attacks targeting polling stations and government buildings were reported in at least four townships, resulting in the deaths of two administrative officials.
- In the Mandalay region, a rocket attack on an uninhabited house resulted in three individuals being hospitalized, one in serious condition.
- Near the border with Thailand, in Myawaddy township, multiple explosions damaged over ten houses, causing one child fatality and three emergency hospitalizations.
- A military airstrike days before voting killed 21 people and injured 28 in Kachin state.
- On Wednesday night, an air strike by Myanmar's military on a hospital in Mrauk-U town, Rakhine state, resulted in at least 34 deaths and dozens of injuries. The Arakan Army spokesperson stated that most casualties were patients and described it as an attack targeting civilians. Pro-military accounts on Telegram claimed strikes this week were not aimed at civilians.
Domestic and International Reactions
The military government, led by Min Aung Hlaing, stated the election aimed to bring political stability and a more favorable future for Myanmar, portraying it as a successful democratic process. Min Aung Hlaing asserted the election had public support and was "free and fair," stating the people's vote provided necessary recognition regardless of international views.
Conversely, the United Nations, several Western countries (including the UK, Australia, and the EU), and human rights organizations described the election as lacking credibility, fairness, and freedom.
Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, urged the international community to reject the vote, calling it a "sham election" due to the detention of political prisoners, dissolution of opposition parties, suppression of journalists, and restrictions on fundamental freedoms. Volker Türk, the UN's top human rights official, stated that conditions for freedom of expression, association, or peaceful assembly were absent, noting civilian coercion from multiple sources.
China, a key military ally, supported the vote, viewing it as a path to stability. Malaysia indicated that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would not endorse the poll or send observers, though individual member states' engagement was uncertain.
Election Results and Leadership Transition
The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured a dominant position in the elections. In the first phase, the USDP won 90 out of 102 lower house seats contested and was anticipated to be the overall winner. This contrasted with the 2020 election, where the USDP secured only 6% of parliamentary seats.
Following the election, Myanmar's junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, assumed the country's presidency after winning a parliamentary vote, formalizing his political control. The transition followed a major reshuffle within the leadership of Myanmar's armed forces, which he had commanded since 2011. He nominated Ye Win Oo, a former intelligence chief, as his successor to lead the military. Analysts interpret this as an effort to consolidate his power as the head of a nominally civilian government and to seek international legitimacy.
Ongoing Civil Conflict and Humanitarian Impact
The 2021 coup initiated widespread protests that evolved into armed resistance, leading to a civil conflict. The military is engaged in battles with a diverse array of opposition groups and ethnic armed organizations. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and displacement, with some reports indicating 16,600 civilians have died and 3.6 million people have been displaced since the coup. Acled, which tracks conflicts globally, recorded 92,000 deaths since 2021.
The military has intensified air strikes and utilized tactics such as paragliders, reportedly supported by technology and equipment from China and Russia. Military counter-offensives intensified leading up to the vote, with airstrikes on civilian areas reaching their highest numbers and associated fatalities since 2021. The conflict has also resulted in economic disruption and a humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by factors like a March earthquake and reductions in international funding. Anti-junta groups, including remnants of Suu Kyi's party and ethnic minority armies, recently formed a new combined front to confront the military, with the objective to dismantle all forms of dictatorship.