Japan's Takaichi Secures Supermajority in Historic Snap Election

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi initiated a snap general election by dissolving the lower house of parliament on January 23, with polling held on February 8. Takaichi, who assumed office in October as Japan's first female prime minister, aimed to secure a public mandate for her policy agenda and leverage her high personal approval ratings. Her ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), secured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat House of Representatives.

This outcome, marking the first winter election in Japan in 36 years, positions the Takaichi administration to advance significant economic, defense, and constitutional reforms.

Sanae Takaichi's ruling coalition achieved a two-thirds supermajority in Japan's lower house, empowering her administration to push through major reforms.

Election Called: A Bid for Mandate

Prime Minister Takaichi's decision to call early elections, well ahead of the next scheduled poll in October 2028, was announced on Wednesday, January 17, to LDP leaders. The move sought to capitalize on her personal popularity, which hovered between 60% and 80% in various polls, to strengthen her government's position and potentially restore the LDP's absolute majority lost in the 2024 general election. Campaigning for the 465 lower house seats began on January 27. Takaichi pledged to resign if her ruling coalition failed to secure a majority.

Prior to the election, the LDP and its former coalition partner Komeito had lost majorities in both the lower (October 2024) and upper (July 2024) houses. Takaichi formed a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (also known as Ishin) upon taking office, which held a slim majority of 233 seats in the lower house and was a minority in the 250-seat upper house.

Takaichi's Vision: Economic & Defense Reforms

Sanae Takaichi is Japan's first woman to hold the prime ministership. She is a proponent of increased public spending and a protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, often drawing comparisons to Britain's Margaret Thatcher and earning the nickname "Japan's Iron Lady."

Her policy proposals included a clear plan for economic revitalization. This involved abolishing a special gasoline tax, implementing energy and fuel subsidies, and planning tax cuts. Specifically, she proposed a two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food items, estimated to reduce annual government revenue by 5 trillion yen ($47 billion). Takaichi committed to a "responsible yet aggressive" fiscal policy and directed ministers to prepare a supplementary budget and secure approval for the upcoming year's budget.

Takaichi also advocated for an accelerated defense build-up, including increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP from the long-standing cap of 1%. Her cabinet had already approved a record defense budget of nine trillion yen ($57 billion) in December. Furthermore, Takaichi expressed intentions to revise Japan's National Defense Strategy, potentially expand arms exports, and review the country's post-war pacifist Constitution, particularly Article 9.

Other domestic policies emphasized included stricter immigration policies, maintaining male-only imperial succession, reactivating nuclear reactors, and increased support for women, carers, and families.

Navigating Global Tensions Before the Vote

Takaichi's premiership was marked by specific engagements and tensions in foreign policy.

Tensions with Beijing escalated following Takaichi's suggestion in November of potential Japanese military involvement in a China-Taiwan conflict if Japan's security were compromised. She stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute an "existential crisis" or "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. China, which views Taiwan as a province, condemned these remarks and responded with economic countermeasures, including a ban on Japanese seafood imports, restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, and travel advisories. China also imposed a ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan's military.

Takaichi sought closer relations with the United States. During US President Donald Trump's visit to Japan in October, an agreement on rare earths was signed. Trump publicly endorsed Takaichi ahead of the election on his Truth Social platform, describing her as a "strong, powerful, and wise" leader, and announced a meeting at the White House on March 19.

Takaichi engaged in new political gestures, such as playing drums with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

Pre-Election Hurdles and Opposition Strategy

Takaichi faced several pre-election challenges. While Takaichi's personal popularity was high, the LDP's approval rating remained lower, around 30%. The party had faced recent scandals related to illicit campaign funds and past associations with the Unification Church.

The LDP grappled with lower approval ratings and recent scandals, contrasting with Takaichi's personal popularity.

Japan's two largest opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP/CDPJ) and the Komeito party, formed the Centrist Reform Union/Alliance. Komeito was a former LDP coalition partner for 26 years before abandoning the alliance in October over policy differences, a loss that could impact the LDP's electoral performance. The new union aimed to present a centrist alternative.

The LDP had experienced leadership instability, with Takaichi being the fourth prime minister in five years. Her immediate predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, also called a snap election shortly after taking office, resulting in significant losses for the LDP.

A pre-election NHK poll indicated that 45% of respondents cited rising prices as their primary concern. Questions were raised about the funding of Takaichi's spending plans, given Japan's national debt, which is more than double its gross domestic product. Record snowfall in some regions of the country was noted as a potential factor that could impact voter participation.

Landslide Victory: A New Political Landscape

The election for the 465-member lower house was held on February 8.

Exit polls from Japanese public broadcaster NHK projected the LDP to win between 274 and 326 seats. The LDP surpassed the 233 seats required for a simple majority based on official counts. The LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, collectively secured a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house. Various projections and official counts indicated the coalition won between 302 and 366 seats. Specific reported results showed the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party winning 36 seats, totaling 352 seats. This outcome marked the LDP's largest majority since its founding in 1955 and the first time a single Japanese party achieved a lower house supermajority since 1947.

The Centrist Reform Alliance saw its projected seat count approximately halved from its previous 167 seats. The populist Sanseito party gained up to 14 seats, and Team Mirai secured its first seat.

The estimated voter turnout was between 55.6% and 56.22%, an increase from the previous lower house election in 2024. A record 27.02 million people cast early ballots. Takaichi garnered significant support among younger voters.

Implications: A Strong Mandate for Change

The election results provide Prime Minister Takaichi with a strong mandate to pursue her agenda.

The two-thirds supermajority in the lower house grants the coalition the authority to override vetoes from the opposition-controlled upper house and initiate processes for potential amendments to Japan's pacifist Constitution. Takaichi stated her intention to prepare for an eventual referendum on constitutional revision. She also stated that the election results endorse "major policy shifts," particularly in economic, fiscal, and security policies. She reaffirmed her commitment to the LDP's promise to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years and plans to expedite discussions on it while focusing on fiscal sustainability.

The "Takaichi trade" continued post-election. Japan's Nikkei 225 index reached a record high, surpassing 56,000 points. Japanese government bonds (JGBs) experienced a selloff, and yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds increased. The yen weakened against the US dollar, trading around 157 to the USD. Investors and analysts expressed concerns regarding the funding of Takaichi's stimulus plans, and authorities stated they were closely monitoring foreign exchange markets due to rapid movements.

Takaichi indicated she does not plan significant changes to her Cabinet lineup and expressed hope that the Japan Innovation Party would now fully participate in Cabinet responsibilities.

• United States: US President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi on social media, supporting her "Peace Through Strength Agenda." US Ambassador to Japan, George Edward Glass, also congratulated Takaichi on her victory, expressing a desire to deepen ties. The planned meeting between Takaichi and Trump at the White House on March 19 remains.
• China: Beijing continued its criticism of Takaichi's stance on Taiwan and viewed Japan's plans to bolster its defenses as an attempt to revive historical militarism.
• Taiwan: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te congratulated Takaichi on her victory, expressing hopes for Japan's future and regional partnerships.