Initial recovery operations are underway in the Gaza Strip following a ceasefire. Bulldozers are clearing roads and rubble, with significant damage reported across various areas, including parts of Gaza City. Residents, such as Abu Iyad Hamdouna in Sheikh Radwan, have observed the destruction of their homes. Estimates from residents suggest reconstruction could take a decade, with rubble removal alone potentially exceeding five years.
Damage assessments indicate a substantial impact. The United Nations estimates the cost of damage at £53 billion ($70 billion). According to the UN's satellite centre Unosat, nearly 300,000 houses and apartments have been damaged or destroyed. The Gaza Strip contains an estimated 60 million tonnes of rubble, which includes unexploded ordnance and human remains. The Hamas-run health ministry reports over 68,000 fatalities in Gaza over the past two years, figures that are accepted by the United Nations and other international bodies. Basic infrastructure, including streets, water, and sewage lines, remains largely unaddressed in some areas.
Diverse Reconstruction Proposals
Multiple proposals for Gaza's reconstruction have been presented:
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The Phoenix of Gaza: This is a Palestinian-led initiative, developed over 13 months by a coalition of approximately 700 Palestinian reconstruction experts, including architects and engineers. Its stated aim is to provide a local vision for recovery, protect existing infrastructure, and restore the area's social and geographical fabric. Hamas was not involved in its creation.
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Gaza Riviera: Former US President Donald Trump outlined this concept, suggesting significant economic development along Gaza's waterfront. Trump's ceasefire proposal also referenced an "economic development plan" and an international "Board of Peace" to oversee governance.
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The Great Plan (Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation Trust): A leaked document, published by The Washington Post, detailed this plan, attributed to Israeli and American consultants with input from Tony Blair's Institute for Global Change. It envisioned high-tech, AI-powered smart cities and proposed the "voluntary relocation" of a quarter of Gaza's population with financial incentives.
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Egyptian and Arab League Plan: Egypt drafted a plan, adopted by the Arab League, which proposes a five-year reconstruction period emphasizing the importance of local Gazan involvement in all stages.
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Palestinian Authority (PA) Proposals: The PA is developing its own proposals for Gaza as part of a future Palestinian state, aiming to reconnect Gaza with the occupied West Bank. PA Planning Minister Estephan Salameh has emphasized preserving refugee identity and reconstructing pre-war refugee camps like Jabalia. The PA's governance currently extends to the West Bank only.
Reconstruction Challenges and Outlook
Reconstruction is anticipated to be a protracted process. Shelly Culbertson of the RAND think tank characterizes it as "incremental urbanism," projecting it will take decades rather than five years. She notes that some areas are too extensively damaged to rebuild in place, necessitating complete demolition and reconstruction.
Key preconditions for commencing reconstruction include establishing political and security arrangements, ensuring open borders for the import of building materials, and securing substantial international funding. International donors are expected to require agreement on a unified recovery plan before committing significant financial resources. Egypt plans to host a reconstruction summit; however, a date has not yet been set.
Political obstacles include the current Israeli government's opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state, which contrasts with Saudi Arabia's push for a broader regional peace initiative. Israel has indicated it is not opposed to investors and builders operating in areas under Israeli military control. Jared Kushner has reportedly discussed building a "new Gaza" in such territories, specifying that reconstruction funds would not be allocated to areas controlled by Hamas.
Residents prioritize immediate needs such as access to water and temporary shelter, with many currently erecting tents while awaiting comprehensive rebuilding efforts.