U.S. Job Market Assessment Hindered by Government Data Delays
The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in the delay of official U.S. labor market reports, complicating a comprehensive assessment of the nation's employment situation.
Delayed Official Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not published its September and October jobs reports. This delay is attributed to the furloughing of BLS staff, which has impacted the availability of official monthly surveys crucial for a broad overview of the job market.
Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook noted the challenges in providing an economic outlook during the shutdown due to data disruptions. She stated that the Federal Reserve utilizes private-sector data and anecdotal reports from business contacts to inform its assessments.
Mixed Indicators from Private Data
Private-sector analyses present varying trends:
- Worker Confidence: Glassdoor's employee sentiment measure indicated a decline in worker confidence regarding job availability over the past three months. Data showed that workers who received job offers in October were less likely to decline them compared to the previous month.
- Layoffs: Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S. businesses announced plans to cut 153,074 jobs in October. This figure represents the highest number for October in over two decades. Major downsizing plans were noted in the technology and warehousing sectors. The firm also observed that individuals affected by layoffs are experiencing increased difficulty in securing new employment.
- Unemployment Claims: State-level new unemployment claims have remained stable, suggesting that a significant overall surge in layoffs has not occurred.
- Private-Sector Hiring: ADP, which processes payroll for over 26 million U.S. employees, reported an increase in private-sector employment in October, following two months of decline. This hiring growth was characterized as modest in comparison to earlier in the year.
Prior Official Data and Demographic Factors
Before the government shutdown halted reporting, official BLS data indicated a slowdown in hiring during the summer. Employers added 22,000 jobs in August, which is the last month for which official numbers are available.
Factors contributing to a potential reduction in the available workforce include the daily retirement of approximately 10,000 baby boomers and a reported decrease in foreign-born workers within the job market.
Unemployment Rate Overview
The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August. Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook noted that this indicates a modest softening of the labor market. However, unemployment rates for specific demographics, such as workers aged 20-24 and African American workers, showed sharper increases during the summer, reaching 9.2% and 7.5% respectively in August.