The National Rugby League (NRL) 2026 season is underway, marked by pre-season challenges, significant roster changes, and early season performances that have shaped team outlooks and award predictions. New eligibility rules have also influenced State of Origin projections, while off-field legal and business developments continue to evolve. Several young players have been identified as emerging talents, with injuries affecting some key prospects and established stars.
NRL 2026 Season Outlook and Predictions
The 2026 NRL season is anticipated to feature significant shifts within the top eight. Historical data suggests at least three new teams are likely to qualify for the finals, while three teams from the previous year's top eight may drop out. The Sydney Roosters and Penrith Panthers are frequently predicted as Grand Final contenders, with some projections also including the Melbourne Storm.
The Roosters are often cited as premiership favorites, though early season analysis notes some defensive vulnerabilities. The Panthers, after ending a four-straight title run in 2025, are expected to rebound with a largely stable roster.
A three-way tie for the wooden spoon (last place) was projected among the Newcastle Knights, St. George Illawarra Dragons, and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, although Manly and Newcastle are not consistently predicted to finish last.
Predicted Top Eight Teams
(Source 6, with variations noted):
- Roosters
- Storm
- Panthers
- Bulldogs
- Raiders
- Broncos
- Rabbitohs
- Eels
Grand Final and Premiers
- Roosters vs. Penrith Panthers (Roosters to win) - Source 6
- Panthers vs. Storm - Source 9
Teams Predicted to Drop from Top Eight
(Source 18):
- Warriors: Due to potential performance decrease in a competitive season.
- Roosters: Despite a strong roster, their 2025 top-eight finish was narrow.
- Raiders: Historical trend of not backing up strong seasons, combined with halfback changes.
Teams Predicted to Improve into Top Eight
(Source 6, 18):
- Dolphins: After narrowly missing out in 2024 and 2025, with key player returns.
- Eels: Following a strong finish to the 2025 season and effective halves combination.
- Cowboys: Contingent on defensive improvements and the impact of Reed Mahoney.
Team-Specific Analyses
Brisbane Broncos
- Roster changes: Include Payne Haas (Rabbitohs 2027), Adam Reynolds (retiring 2026), Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins), and Coby Black (Raiders) departing. Recruits include Jonah Pezet (2027), Tom Duffy, Grant Anderson, and Aublix Tawha. Other losses for 2026 include Tyson Smoothy, Jock Madden, Fletcher Baker, Israel Leota, and Kobe Hetherington.
- Early season: Commenced 2026 with two consecutive losses, conceding 66 points, and a 26-0 defeat to Penrith. Defensive issues and an Adam Reynolds injury concern have been noted.
- Outlook: Predicted 4th-place finish, with a ceiling of 1st and floor of 4th-5th. Concerns exist regarding spine age and injury history for Reynolds and Ben Hunt (both turning 36 in 2026). Ezra Mam's increased availability is a key factor for offense.
Canberra Raiders
- Roster changes: Jamal Fogarty's departure and Coby Black's neck injury, which has sidelined him for pre-season. Ethan Sanders, 22, is expected to fill the halfback role.
- Outlook: Finished 2025 as minor premiers. Predicted to maintain strong performance, with a ceiling of 1st and floor of 7th-8th.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
- Roster: No current player has played 100 games for the club. Leo Thompson is a new recruit.
- Outlook: Finished 6th in 2024 and 3rd in 2025. Expected to meet heightened expectations under coach Cameron Ciraldo. Mitchell Woods sustained a hamstring injury, and Finau Latu a hand injury in pre-season.
Cronulla Sharks
- Roster: Addin Fonua-Blake is a new recruit. Six key players from their top 17 are off-contract.
- Outlook: Consistent top-eight finishers, reaching preliminary finals in 2024 and 2025. Predicted to be finals contenders but not premiers, noted for struggles in critical matches against top-tier teams. Ceiling of 3rd-4th and floor of 7th-8th.
Dolphins
- Roster: Selwyn Cobbo, Daniel Saifiti, and Morgan Knowles are new recruits.
- Outlook: Finished 10th and 9th in previous seasons. Aim for a maiden finals berth in their fourth season, with strong attacking performance (721 points in 2025). Ceiling of 4th-5th and floor of 9th-10th.
Gold Coast Titans
- Roster: Max Feagai and Luke Sommerton are new recruits.
- Outlook: New coach Josh Hannay aims for a fresh start after declining win tallies. Potential for a top-eight run if players align with the new system. Ceiling of 7th-8th and floor of 14th-15th.
Manly Sea Eagles
- Roster: Daly Cherry-Evans departed for the Roosters, replaced by Jamal Fogarty. Jake Simpkin, Kobe Hetherington, and Siosiua Taukeiaho are new recruits. Tom Trbojevic is confirmed at fullback, not center.
- Outlook: Predicted to struggle post-Cherry-Evans, with an aging forward pack and backline depth concerns. Vulnerable to a Tom Trbojevic injury. Ceiling of 7th-8th and floor of 15th-16th. Began season winless, including a golden point loss and a 36-16 defeat.
Melbourne Storm
- Roster: Sua Fa’alogo at fullback, Stefano Utoikamanu, Shawn Blore, and Davvy Moale are new recruits. Eli Katoa (head injury), Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and Ryan Papenhuyzen departed. Xavier Coates suffered an Achilles injury.
- Outlook: Aim for a premiership after two consecutive Grand Final losses. Fa'alogo's performance replacing Papenhuyzen is a critical factor. Ceiling of 1st and floor of 5th-6th. Started with two convincing wins (52-4 vs Eels, 46-20 vs Dragons).
Newcastle Knights
- Roster: Dylan Brown, Sandon Smith, and Trey Mooney are new recruits.
- Outlook: Finished last in 2025. Predicted to miss finals despite winning their first two games due to injuries to Kalyn Ponga (hamstring) and Dylan Brown (knee). Forward pack is considered a weakness. Ceiling of 8th-9th and floor of 17th. Dane Gagai, 35, is seeking a contract extension beyond 2027.
North Queensland Cowboys
- Roster: Reed Mahoney and Matt Lodge are new recruits.
- Outlook: Inconsistent in recent seasons, with strong attack but defensive struggles. Reed Mahoney's addition is intended to improve defense. Dependence on Jason Taumalolo's performance and fitness is a critical factor. Ceiling of 5th-6th and floor of 14th-15th. Started with two losses, including a 44-16 defeat to the Tigers.
Parramatta Eels
- Roster: Brian Kelly, Jonah Pezet, and Jack de Belin are new recruits.
- Outlook: Finished 2025 strongly despite missing finals. High expectations for 2026, with a strong spine and coach Jason Ryles. Ceiling of 5th-6th and floor of 10th-11th. Started with a 52-4 loss to Storm and a 40-32 win against Broncos. Mitchell Moses' fitness and combination with Jonah Pezet are crucial.
Penrith Panthers
- Roster: Jack Cogger returned for spine depth.
- Outlook: Maintain core roster, with 16 of their top 17 returning. Renewed hunger expected to drive another premiership contention. Ceiling of 1st and floor of 6th-7th. Started with two convincing wins (26-0 vs Broncos, 26-6 vs Sharks).
South Sydney Rabbitohs
- Roster: Payne Haas (from 2027) and David Fifita are new recruits. Jamie Humphreys received a two-match suspension. Latrell Mitchell is anticipated to transition to center, accommodating Jye Gray at fullback. Jayden Sullivan is a leading candidate for the No. 7 role.
- Outlook: Expected to improve significantly after an injury-plagued 2025. Mitchell's move to center is aimed at increasing his game time. Ceiling of 6th-7th and floor of 13th-14th. The club has filed a trademark application for 'Random Souths guy'.
St. George Illawarra Dragons
- Roster: Clint Gutherson, Valentine Holmes, Damien Cook, and Daniel Atkinson are new recruits. Keaon Koloamatangi joins in 2027.
- Outlook: Finished 15th in 2025, with a mixed record and losing 8 of 12 games decided by one score or less. Lack immediate star power. Ceiling of 9th-10th and floor of 17th.
Sydney Roosters
- Roster: Daly Cherry-Evans and Reece Robson are new recruits.
- Outlook: Finished top eight in 2025 despite losing stars. Stacked roster makes them strong contenders for the minor premiership. Sam Walker's leadership and reducing errors are critical factors. Some early defensive vulnerabilities noted with Cherry-Evans. Ceiling of 1st and floor of 5th-6th.
New Zealand Warriors
- Roster: Alofiana Khan-Pereira, James Fisher-Harris, and Morgan Gannon are new recruits. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck moves to center.
- Outlook: Finished 6th in 2025. Predicted to miss the top eight, with Luke Metcalf's injury status a defining factor. Ceiling of 3rd-4th and floor of 10th-11th.
Wests Tigers
- Roster: Jarome Luai, Sunia Turuva, Terrell May, Kai Pearce-Paul, Mavrik Geyer, and Bunty Afoa are new recruits.
- Outlook: Finished 13th after three wooden spoons. Aim for greater consistency, specifically a three-match winning streak, to end a 15-season finals drought. Heamasi Makasini is a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. Ceiling of 4th-5th and floor of 12th-13th.
Player Movements and Roster Changes (Summary)
Beyond team-specific details, notable confirmed player movements include:
- Payne Haas (Broncos to Rabbitohs in 2027)
- Adam Reynolds (Broncos to retire after 2026)
- Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly to Roosters)
- Reece Robson (Cowboys to Roosters)
- Jamal Fogarty (Raiders to Manly)
- Jonah Pezet (for 2027, with 2026 at Parramatta)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos to Dolphins)
- Coby Black (Broncos to Raiders)
- David Fifita (Titans to Rabbitohs)
- Eli Katoa (Storm - head injury)
- Nelson Asofa-Solomona (Storm - departed)
- Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm - departed)
- Addin Fonua-Blake (Warriors to Sharks)
Emerging Talent and Pre-Season Performances
Witzer Pre-Season Challenge Round 2 Highlights
(Source 1):
- Zane Harrison (Titans, 19, Halfback): Contributed to a 24-12 victory with kicking and ball handling.
- Simione Laiafi (Sea Eagles, Prop): Gained 181 metres from 17 runs.
- Jalen Afamasaga (Raiders): Recorded a line break and try assist.
- Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers, 18): Scored three tries, ran 118 metres, three line breaks.
- Apa Twidle (Eels): Contributed two tries and one try assist in a 40-6 win.
- Talanoa Penitani (Rabbitohs): Scored opening try, broke tackles; sidelined for eight weeks with hamstring injury.
- Felix Faatilii (Sharks): Gained 115 metres from 14 runs, broke six tackles.
NRL Big Board Top Prospects
(Source 5):
- Coby Black (Canberra Raiders, Halfback, 19): Maintained top spot despite injury.
- Cooper Bai (Gold Coast Titans, Lock / Middle Forward, 19): Rose to second.
- Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers, Centre / Wing, 18): Moved to third after scoring three tries.
- Mitchell Woods (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Halfback, 19): Dropped due to hamstring injury.
- Zane Harrison (Gold Coast Titans, Halfback, 19): Remained at fifth.
- Joey Walsh (Manly Sea Eagles, Halfback, 19): Jumped to sixth after two try assists and a field goal.
- Michael Gabrael (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, Centre, 19): Dropped one spot.
- Finau Latu (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Lock / Middle Forward, 19): Slid due to minor hand injury.
- David Bryenton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Fullback/five-eighth, 18): Dropped one position.
- Jonah Glover (South Sydney Rabbitohs, Five-eighth, 20): Sustained broken jaw, sidelined eight weeks.
Notable players from previous Pre-Season Challenges who achieved NRL success include Rob Toia (Roosters), Owen Pattie (Raiders), Ryley Smith (Eels), Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos), and Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs).
State of Origin 2026 Projections
New eligibility rules are set to impact State of Origin selections for both New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (QLD) in 2026.
Predicted NSW Blues Team 2026
(Source 4, 11):
- Dylan Edwards (PEN) / James Tedesco (SYD)
- Brian To’o (PEN)
- Stephen Crichton (PEN) / Latrell Mitchell (SOU)
- Latrell Mitchell (SOU) / Casey McLean (PEN)
- Tom Trbojevic (MAN) / Tom Jenkins (PEN)
- Mitchell Moses (PAR)
- Nathan Cleary (PEN)
- Addin Fonua-Blake (CRO) (New Zealand eligibility)
- Blayke Brailey (CRO) / Reece Robson (COW)
- Payne Haas (BRI)
- Liam Martin (PEN)
- Angus Crichton (SYD)
- Isaah Yeo (PEN) (c)
- Reece Robson (COW) / Blayke Brailey (CRO)
- Keaon Koloamatangi (SOU) / Jacob Preston (CBY)
- Hudson Young (CAN) / Cameron Murray (SOU)
- Mitch Barnett (NEW) / Jarome Luai (WST)
- Victor Radley (SYD) (England eligibility) / Tom Trbojevic (MAN)
- Cameron Murray (SOU) / Jarome Luai (WST)
Predicted QLD Maroons Team 2026
(Source 4):
- Reece Walsh
- Xavier Coates
- Robert Toia
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
- Valentine Holmes
- Cameron Munster (c)
- Tom Dearden
- Reuben Cotter
- Harry Grant
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
- Briton Nikora (New Zealand eligibility)
- David Fifita
- Patrick Carrigan
- Ezra Mam
- Lindsay Collins
- Corey Horsburgh
- Jeremiah Nanai
- Tom Gilbert
- Kalyn Ponga
Coaching Landscape
Seventeen NRL head coaches are facing pressure entering the 2026 season based on team records, challenges, and expectations:
- Under Pressure: Todd Payten (Cowboys) and Anthony Seibold (Manly) are under scrutiny due to early-season losses and past performances. Shane Flanagan (Dragons) also faces pressure to improve standings.
- Defending Premiers: Michael Maguire (Broncos) aims to maintain success despite key player departures.
- Rebound: Ivan Cleary (Panthers) seeks to rebound after a preliminary final exit. Craig Bellamy (Storm) faces pressure after consecutive Grand Final defeats.
- New Eras: Ricky Stuart (Raiders) adapts to Jamal Fogarty's departure. Jason Ryles (Eels) aims for further improvement. Josh Hannay (Titans) is a new head coach focusing on defensive issues. Justin Holbrook (Knights) aims to improve from a wooden spoon finish. Benji Marshall (Tigers) seeks to end the club's finals drought.
- Consistent Challengers: Craig Fitzgibbon (Sharks) aims to overcome preliminary final exits. Trent Robinson (Roosters) seeks to end a premiership drought. Kristian Woolf (Dolphins) aims for a maiden finals berth. Cameron Ciraldo (Bulldogs) faces expectations after a top-four finish. Andrew Webster (Warriors) relies on player recovery. Wayne Bennett (Rabbitohs) returns aiming for finals.
Ben Te'o, an assistant coach for the Broncos, has departed the club despite being signed until 2028.
League Operations and Legal Developments
NRL Broadcast Deal
The NRL is in discussions for a new TV deal, with Dazn (which acquired Foxtel) identified as an interested party. The value of the deal is dependent on competition among local broadcasters and multiple free-to-air partners.
Legal Activities
The pre-season has included several legal matters:
- Zac Lomax Dispute: A legal dispute emerged regarding Lomax's transfer.
- Manly Court Cases: Manly is involved in two ongoing court cases related to the treatment of players during pre-season training.
Former Manly forward Lloyd Perrett offered to testify in the multi-million dollar lawsuit filed by Keith Titmuss' family against the Manly Sea Eagles, following Titmuss' death in 2020. Perrett himself experienced a heat stress-induced seizure at a Manly session three years prior.
- Bulldogs Settlement: The Bulldogs settled a matter with former player Jackson Topine.
- New Teams: Corporate law firms are preparing for extensive work related to the establishment of new teams like the Perth Bears (targeting Bulldogs winger Jonathan Sua) for next season and the PNG Chiefs.
Post-Vegas Scheduling
The NRL's AI software for scheduling has faced scrutiny regarding the demanding travel schedules for some teams following international games.
Player Injuries and Availability
Several players are managing injuries or suspensions:
- Talanoa Penitani (Rabbitohs): Hamstring injury, sidelined eight weeks.
- Coby Black (Raiders): Nerve issue in neck, weakened arm movement, out for pre-season.
- Mitchell Woods (Bulldogs): Hamstring injury, expected to sideline him for one to two months.
- Finau Latu (Bulldogs): Minor hand injury, missed trial matches.
- Jonah Glover (Rabbitohs): Broken jaw, sidelined approximately eight weeks.
- Liam Ison (Sharks): Knee soreness, sidelined from trials.
- Cody Hopwood (Knights): Minor niggles, ruled out of trial matches.
- Adam Reynolds (Broncos): Injury concern during early season.
- Kalyn Ponga (Knights): Hamstring injury, sidelined eight weeks.
- Dylan Brown (Knights): Knee injury, sidelined one month.
- Jai Bowden (Storm): Underwent surgery for a right arm injury.
Other Developments
Phil ‘Buzz’ Rothfield, a long-standing sports journalist for News Corp Australia, has retired after a 50-year career covering rugby league and other major sporting events.