The United States has announced the commencement of the second phase of a US-brokered plan for the Gaza Strip, focusing on transitioning from a ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction. This phase includes the establishment of a transitional Palestinian administration for the territory. The US also reiterated its expectation for Hamas to fulfill its obligations, specifically the return of the body of the last deceased Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili.
Overview of Phase Two
On Wednesday, US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, announced via social media the launch of the second phase of the 20-point Gaza plan. The plan aims to initiate the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, which involves the disarmament of Hamas and other Palestinian groups, and to establish a transitional administration.
Formation of Technocratic Government
A key component of Phase Two is the establishment of a technocratic Palestinian government. This 15-member committee, referred to as the "Palestinian Technocratic Committee to Administer the Gaza Strip" or the "National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG)," is intended to manage daily life and essential services in the territory.
- Leadership: The committee is led by Ali Shaath, a former deputy planning minister in the Palestinian Authority (PA). Majed Abu Ramadan, the PA health minister, has also been mentioned as a potential leader.
- Composition: The members are anticipated to be technocrats, though some are believed to have affiliations with the Fatah party, a prominent faction within the PA.
- Initial Actions: The Palestinian-led technocratic government held its initial meeting in Cairo.
- Support: The formation of this technocratic government has garnered support from regional mediators, including Egypt and Turkey. Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Palestinian Authority (PA), led by Fatah, have also expressed support for its formation.
- Authorization: The committee's work is not expected to commence until authorized by a "Board of Peace," which is yet to be established.
Oversight and Governance Structure
The transitional administration in Gaza is designed to operate under the guidance of a "Board of Peace," which is planned to be chaired by US President Donald Trump, as outlined in the 20-point plan.
- Board Membership: President Trump has reportedly invited various world leaders, including Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to join this board. A draft charter for the organization suggests each participating country would be represented by its leader for a term not exceeding three years, with a reported requirement to contribute $US1 billion to continue participation beyond this term. The draft charter does not explicitly mention Gaza, potentially indicating a broader scope, nor does it detail the intended use of membership fees. Board decisions are to be made via member vote, subject to the chair's approval.
- Executive Bodies: An 'Executive Board' is planned to operate under the 'Board of Peace', with individuals such as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and World Bank President Ajay Banga mentioned as members. Nickolay Mladenov, a former UN Middle East envoy, is designated as 'High Representative for Gaza' within this group and is expected to serve as the board's representative in Gaza. A 'Gaza Executive Board' is also planned to support the work of the executive board and the Palestinian technocratic government.
- Israeli Criticism: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the proposed composition of the Gaza Executive Board, specifically regarding the inclusion of Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari diplomat Ali Al-Thawadi. Netanyahu stated that the announcement of these appointments was made by the US without coordination with his government and indicated he would convey these concerns to the United States.
Demilitarization and Security
Phase Two aims for the full demilitarization of Gaza, encompassing the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel, including Hamas and other Palestinian groups. An International Stabilisation Force (ISF) is slated for deployment to Gaza to train and support vetted Palestinian police forces.
However, challenges to this objective include Hamas's prior refusal to disarm without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Hostage Concerns and Obligations
The US has emphasized its expectation for Hamas to fully comply with its obligations, including the immediate return of the body of the final deceased hostage, Ran Gvili. The US has indicated that non-compliance would lead to serious consequences.
- Ran Gvili: Ran Gvili was among the individuals abducted on October 7, 2023, during a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. His return remains a top priority for Israel, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that the establishment of the technocratic committee will not impact efforts to bring his body back to Israel for burial. Hamas has reported an inability to locate Gvili’s body.
- Advocacy: Groups representing Israeli former hostages and their families had urged the US against declaring the second phase until Gvili's remains were returned.
Context and Ongoing Situation
Phase One Recap: The initial phase of the peace plan, enacted in October, involved a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, a hostage-prisoner exchange, a partial Israeli troop withdrawal, and an increase in humanitarian aid.
Current Challenges:
- Fragile Ceasefire: The current ceasefire has been described as fragile, with both sides reporting violations. Israel has accused Hamas of attacking Israeli troops and delaying the return of remains of deceased Israeli hostages.
- Continued Violence: Since the ceasefire began on October 10, Israeli bombardment of Gaza has continued, albeit at a reduced intensity. According to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, approximately 450 to 460 Palestinian fatalities and over 1,200 injuries have been reported since the ceasefire began.
- Humanitarian Crisis: The United Nations reports that humanitarian conditions in Gaza remain critical, emphasizing the necessity for unrestricted delivery of essential supplies. Discussions concerning the second phase have also addressed further Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, the reopening of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, and the entry of aid currently stockpiled on the Egyptian side of the border, alongside a general increase in the flow of goods and aid into Gaza.
- Uncertainty: There has been no agreement reached regarding the disarmament of Hamas, and Israel has not made a firm commitment to a complete withdrawal from Gaza.