One year into a hypothetical second presidential term, analysts and experts have provided varied assessments of the state of U.S. democracy. Discussions revolve around observed administrative actions, policy changes, and shifts in governance. While some scholars express significant concerns about the trajectory of democratic institutions, others view these concerns as overstated or politically motivated. The White House has disputed claims of authoritarianism, asserting that the administration is fulfilling its mandate.
Administrative Actions and Policy Changes
During the initial year of a hypothetical second term, the administration reportedly implemented several changes to federal operations and policy. These actions included:
- Dismantling federal agencies and purging civil service positions.
- Firing independent watchdogs and sidelining congressional involvement in certain areas.
- Challenging judicial rulings and deploying federal force in cities.
- Stifling dissent, targeting political opponents, and increasing actions against news organizations.
- Implementing policies focused on immigrants and marginalized groups.
- Reports also indicated leveraging the presidency for financial gain and actions impacting academic freedom.
- The president was reported to have bypassed a GOP-controlled Congress on matters such as spending, tariffs, and war powers.
- Some analysts suggest the administration's approach included campaigns against universities, law firms, media, and judges, alongside efforts to influence arts and history narratives, and the denigration of immigrants. Policies such as the hypothetical cancellation of wind projects were also noted.
These actions, according to some observers of authoritarian regimes, occurred at an accelerated pace. The president reportedly stated in an interview that his "own morality" was the sole constraint on his presidential power.
Expert Assessments of Democratic Health
Scholarly opinions on the status of U.S. democracy have varied:
- Concerns about Democratic Decline: Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt from Harvard, along with Lucan Way from the University of Toronto, suggested in Foreign Affairs that the U.S. had "descended into competitive authoritarianism" by 2025. This term describes a system where elections occur, but the ruling party uses its power to suppress dissent and gain advantage.
- Other experts have characterized the U.S. as a "flawed" or "illiberal" democracy, or one experiencing "autocratization," a process identified as predating the presidency but reportedly accelerated during it.
- Many scholars expressed that the hypothetical second term differed from the first due to a perceived more methodical approach, increased focus on retribution, and fewer internal checks on power. Republican critics were reported to have largely exited public office, with remaining critics reportedly fearing reprisal.
- Counterarguments: Some experts dispute the imminence of peril to American democracy. Andrew Little, a political scientist at UC Berkeley, advocates for a "minimalist" approach, focusing on whether "the country is having free elections, and are people following the results of those elections?" Other experts maintain that concerns are exaggerated or stem from partisan opposition.
European allies were reported to be preparing for potential responses to threats, including the acquisition of Greenland.
Quantitative Indicators
Several nonpartisan initiatives have published data on the perceived health of U.S. democracy:
- Bright Line Watch: This initiative reported a "significant" drop in ratings of U.S. democracy by both scholars and the public following the hypothetical inauguration. In a September survey, experts rated U.S. democracy at 54 out of 100, placing it closer to illiberal regimes than full democracies.
- Century Foundation: Its democracy indexing project found a 28% "collapse" in democratic health, from 79/100 in 2024 to 57/100 in 2025. Nate Schenkkan, the report's lead author, highlighted the uneven distribution of systemic changes and the importance of recognizing potential future impacts.
- A network of former intelligence and national security professionals, using methods applied to assess foreign democracies, concluded in October with "moderate to high confidence" that the U.S. was "on a trajectory" toward authoritarian rule.
White House Response
The White House has rejected claims of authoritarianism, describing such criticism as "deeply unserious" and attributing it to "Trump derangement syndrome." The president stated that he received a broad mandate to restore "law and order," secure elections, and dismantle what he described as a corrupt federal bureaucracy.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson stated, "President Trump was resoundingly reelected by the American people based on his America First agenda. Now, he’s delivering on all his campaign promises – that’s democracy in action."
Concerns and Controversies
Concerns were raised regarding the president's association with tech billionaires. Elon Musk was appointed to lead the "department of government efficiency" (Doge). Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat described this as an innovation in autocratic playbooks. During his time at the White House, Musk reportedly reduced the federal workforce, leading to legal challenges and the departure of over 300,000 federal workers.
Ben-Ghiat also noted a divergence from traditional autocratic models, which often expand social services for supporters. Instead, the administration, with congressional Republicans, reportedly moved to reduce public health and social programs, including child care benefits.
Public Response and Legal Challenges
Public and institutional responses to the administration's actions have been reported:
- Protests: "No Kings" rallies were reportedly held by millions to protest presidential actions. In Minneapolis, where the president reportedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, citizens registered for training as "observers" of enforcement activity.
- Electoral Outcomes: Democrats secured victories in 2025 off-year elections and are positioned to potentially regain control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. National polls indicate the president remains unpopular, with a CNN poll showing a majority believed his policies worsened economic conditions and 58% considered his first year a failure.
- Legal Challenges: The ACLU has filed over 200 legal challenges against the administration in the past year, reporting a nearly 65% success rate in "defeating, delaying, or diluting federal policies." Ben Wizner of the ACLU expressed confidence that the system would withstand the "stress test."
Experts indicate that democratic decline is not irreversible, cautioning that fatalism could accelerate backsliding. Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist, suggested that engaging, protesting, voting, and supporting dissenting Republicans could challenge presidential power.
Outlook for the Future
Many scholars predict further challenges to democratic norms and the rule of law leading up to the 2026 midterms. Recent Bright Line surveys indicated increased concerns about political violence, aggressive responses to peaceful protest, the use of government agencies against political opponents, and efforts to gerrymander congressional districts. Potential actions discussed included the deployment of the National Guard to polling places and the expansion of ICE operations in Democratic-led cities.
The president reportedly joked about not needing an election in 2026, though the federal government cannot unilaterally cancel midterms. Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat emphasized the continued importance of elections.