A significant debate is underway in Australia regarding its foreign policy direction and its long-standing alliance with the United States. This discussion is set against a backdrop of evolving global dynamics, characterized by a perceived decline in the rules-based international order and concerns about the future trajectory of US foreign policy. Various experts, political figures, and public opinion polls highlight a growing imperative for Australia to consider increased self-reliance and diversified international engagement.
Global Context and International Perspectives
International figures have noted a fundamental shift in the global order. Mark Carney, former Canadian Prime Minister, remarked at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the world is experiencing a "rupture" rather than a "transition."
"The old order is not coming back."
He advocated for middle powers to collaborate to forge a "third path" in an era of major power competition.
Concerns about the United States' international conduct have been raised by some international observers. Jeffrey Sachs described the political climate in the United States as chaotic and stated concerns about US actions and its adherence to international rules. French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly directed comments about "bullies" towards then-US President Donald Trump following actions related to Greenland, where Trump threatened tariffs on several European nations. These tariff threats were later withdrawn after a reported "deal" with NATO.
Canada, in response to US trade tariffs and suggestions for it to become the 51st US state, has begun to adjust its historical relationship with the US, according to Carney, and has explored scenarios including a hypothetical US invasion.
Australian Debate on the US Alliance
The discussion in Australia centers on the nation's seven-decade alliance with the United States, historically a foundational element of its security policy, as symbolized by the Australian-American Memorial in Canberra. While Foreign Minister Penny Wong has stated that the US remains Australia's closest strategic partner and most important security ally, calls for a reassessment have intensified.
Dr. Emma Shortis, director of the International and Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute, has suggested that Australia should reconsider its alliance with the US, citing risks associated with tying Australia's security to a power perceived as potentially unconstrained. Greens Senator David Shoebridge has also called for the Albanese government to reassess the national security aspects of the relationship, arguing that Australia's close alliance could place it on the frontline in a potential conflict between China and the United States, which he states is not aligned with Australia's strategic interests or values.
In contrast, Scott Hargreaves, Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, argued that it would be naive to assume Australia could avoid conflict if China were to expand its influence aggressively in the Indo-Pacific. He suggested that Australia's trade routes and relationships would be impacted by any conflict, and that building a defense force alongside the US alliance contributes to peace through credible deterrence. He also proposed that Australia's alliance with the US is valued by other Asia-Pacific countries.
Public and Expert Confidence in the Alliance
Public opinion polls indicate varying levels of confidence in the US alliance. A Lowy Institute poll from June 2025 reported that 72% of Australians had limited or no confidence in former President Trump "to do the right thing." A YouGov poll for the Australia Institute in November indicated that only 8% of Australians believed Australia "shares values" with modern America, with a plurality considering the US an unreliable ally. However, the same Lowy Institute poll found that eight out of 10 Australians continued to consider the US alliance important for security. A May poll cited 54.2% of Australians desiring a more independent foreign policy.
Former Labor foreign ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr have raised questions about the alliance's future.
Evans stated that Trump's America has demonstrated "zero respect for international law, morality and the interests of its allies," suggesting the alliance "might have run its course."
Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute, acknowledged that while Australians hold negative views of former President Trump, support for the US alliance remains robust. He observed that Trump's actions have had a lasting impact on the global order, transforming it into something described as "illiberal, nationalistic and disorderly," making a full return to pre-Trump norms unlikely. Professor Bec Strating, director of the La Trobe Centre for Global Security, emphasized that alliances depend on trust and a partner's resolve, suggesting Australia should "hedge" by developing other relationships to reduce dependence on the US. She cautioned against viewing the Trump era as a temporary anomaly, proposing it reflects structural shifts within the US.
Proposed Strategies for Australia's Foreign Policy
Proposals for a revised Australian foreign policy, sometimes referred to as a "Plan B," include:
Proposed "Plan B" Strategies
- Independent Responses: Asserting Australia's positions by respectfully declining US proposals deemed unworkable, such as the suggested "Board of Peace for Gaza."
- Re-evaluating AUKUS: Calls to terminate the AUKUS agreement, citing its estimated cost of $360 billion and potential lack of necessity as a deterrent, particularly in light of former President Trump's reported comments questioning its need. A parliamentary inquiry into the AUKUS deal has been proposed as a starting point for scrutiny.
- US Military Presence: Re-assessing the necessity of US bases in Northern Australia, with the exception of Pine Gap, especially if relations between the US and China evolve.
- Regional Engagement: Significantly enhancing engagement with the Indo-Pacific region, building upon agreements like the recently reinstated mutual security treaty with Indonesia, focusing on finding security within the region.
- Diplomatic Capacity: Strengthening diplomatic capabilities in Asia, potentially by reallocating resources from representations in Washington and London.
- Asian Education: Reversing a decline in Australia's understanding and education regarding Asia, including revitalizing Asian language learning, media interest, and cultural exchanges.
- China Relations: Developing a more constructive relationship with China, focusing on areas like renewable energy and multilateral trade. This involves exploring Chinese initiatives such as the Belt and Road, BRICS expansion, and diplomatic proposals like the Global Governance Institute (GGI), Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilisation Initiative, which aim to supplement the UN-centered system.
Some perspectives suggest that underlying the US alliance is a fear of China. However, a different view posits that China does not possess an expansionist doctrine akin to the US, nor does it seek to replace the US as a global hegemon. Instead, China's focus is described as securing its own development and protecting its borders, influenced by historical memory.
Michael Fullilove proposed three strategies for Australia in this new global context: increased self-reliance, including a larger defense budget; strengthening regional partnerships; and maintaining US engagement in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating Australia's value as an ally through facilities like Pine Gap and the Five Eyes intelligence network.
Potential Challenges of Shifting Alliances
Concerns have been raised regarding potential retaliatory actions from the US should Australia significantly alter its alliance posture. A hypothetical US leader reportedly revoked Canada's invitation to a 'Board of Peace' initiative and threatened tariffs on Canadian goods after Canada pursued a trade deal with China. Senator Shoebridge acknowledged that any move by Australia away from a close US relationship could result in retaliatory actions from the US, such as refusing support for Australian military hardware purchased from US contractors. However, he also suggested that a tariff war from the US against Australia would be detrimental to the United States itself, given the trade balance favoring the US. Steve Bannon reportedly commented that Australia's image among Trump supporters had been "damaged" due to its COVID-19 response.
Middle Power Cooperation
The concept of middle power cooperation has gained traction. Mark Carney advocated for countries like Canada and Australia to strengthen their relationships with each other rather than solely aligning with major powers.
"If we're not at the table, we're on the menu."
Dr. Shortis supports this approach, focusing on building regional networks and alliances around shared interests such as climate action, public health, and education.
Conclusion
The ongoing discussions reflect a complex period for Australia's foreign policy, as it navigates global instability and re-evaluates its security and economic interests in a changing international landscape. The debate involves balancing historical alliances with calls for increased independence and regional engagement, while considering the potential implications of any significant policy shifts.