China recently conducted two large-scale mobilizations of fishing boats in the East China Sea. These operations involved thousands of vessels forming extensive maritime barriers, demonstrating a new level of coordination for imposing control in contested waters.
Approximately 1,400 Chinese vessels assembled into a rectangle stretching over 200 miles in the East China Sea by January 11. Ship-tracking data indicated that some approaching cargo ships either circumnavigated or navigated through this dense formation.
A similar operation occurred on Christmas Day last month, involving about 2,000 Chinese fishing boats. These vessels formed two long, parallel formations, each extending 290 miles, in the same waters. Analysts suggest these two gatherings, weeks apart, indicate a coordinated effort.
Maritime and military experts interpret these maneuvers as evidence of China strengthening its maritime militia, which comprises civilian fishing boats trained to participate in military operations. The maneuvers highlight Beijing's capacity to rapidly muster large numbers of boats in disputed seas.
In a conflict scenario, such as over Taiwan, China could potentially mobilize tens of thousands of civilian ships, including fishing boats, to impede sea lanes and complicate opposing military and supply operations. Lonnie Henley, a former U.S. intelligence officer, suggested that smaller boats could obstruct American warships, while Thomas Shugart of the Center for a New American Security noted they could act as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming sensors.
Jason Wang of ingeniSPACE first spotted these formations, which were independently confirmed by The New York Times using ship-location data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence. Researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington also observed these vessel groups. Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS, commented that the boats were "almost certainly not fishing" and likely "state-directed."
The fishing boats assembled near major shipping lanes branching from Shanghai, a global port. These maritime routes are critical arteries China might seek to control in a confrontation with the United States or its Asian allies, particularly concerning Taiwan. Mr. Poling suggested these operations might be an exercise to test civilian mobilization for future contingencies, such as a quarantine or blockade against Taiwan.
Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, stated the operations could signal "opposition to Japan" or serve as practice for potential confrontations with Japan or Taiwan. Some participating vessels have been linked to prior maritime militia activities. The tight coordination suggests an at-sea mobilization and exercise of maritime militia forces, marking an improvement in China's ability to marshal and control a large number of militia vessels.