Anticipating 2nm Smartphone Chipsets: Performance, Thermal Challenges, and Market Strategies

The smartphone industry is on the cusp of a significant technological leap, anticipating the introduction of initial 2nm chipsets from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Apple later this year. These new processors, leveraging TSMC's advanced lithography, are set to redefine smartphone performance.

Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 series, MediaTek's Dimensity 9600, and Samsung's Exynos 2700 are at the forefront of this innovation.

While promising considerable advancements, their arrival also brings challenges related to manufacturing costs and thermal management. Samsung's Exynos 2700 is also slated for mass production in the latter half of the year, with a projected increase in its market share within Samsung's own devices.

Development of Next-Generation 2nm Chipsets

Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Series

Qualcomm is reportedly preparing two versions of its next-generation flagship chipsets: the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 (SM8950) and the more advanced Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro (SM8975). Both variants are anticipated to be manufactured using TSMC’s N2P process node, which is expected to offer efficiency improvements.

The 'Pro' model is rumored to feature exclusive capabilities such as a faster GPU, LPDDR6 RAM, and UFS 5.0 support, while maintaining compatibility with older memory standards like LPDDR5X and LPDDR5. The standard Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 is reportedly limited to LPDDR5 RAM support. Qualcomm’s fourth-generation Oryon cores, planned for these chipsets, are anticipated to operate at increased clock speeds, potentially reaching 4.80GHz. The Pro model is rumored to be tested at clock speeds up to 5.00GHz, with some projections even reaching 6GHz.

MediaTek's Dimensity 9600

Concurrently, MediaTek has completed the tape-out of its 2nm Dimensity 9600 chipset, also leveraging TSMC's 2nm process, with an expected launch later this year. MediaTek reportedly has a single flagship chipset in development, the Dimensity 9600.

The company utilizes ARM CPU and GPU designs, which have been noted to be less efficient than Qualcomm's custom Oryon cores, as observed in comparisons between the Dimensity 9500 and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5. Internally, MediaTek reportedly expects the Dimensity 9600 to surpass the performance of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6.

Samsung's Exynos 2700

Samsung's Exynos 2700 chipset is anticipated to begin mass production in the second half of this year. The company's 2nm GAA (Gate-All-Around) yields are estimated at 50%.

Samsung aims for a 130% increase in chip orders, requesting partners to promote its second-generation 2nm GAA node, SF2P, designed for the Exynos 2700. The basic design for this manufacturing process was completed in 2025.

Advanced Thermal Management Solutions Crucial for 2nm Chips

The increased clock speeds and anticipated power draw of upcoming 2nm chipsets are highlighting the critical need for advanced thermal management.

Samsung's Heat Pass Block (HPB) Technology

Samsung's Heat Pass Block (HPB) technology, previously incorporated into its Exynos 2600 chipset, is reportedly being considered for adoption by other chip manufacturers. HPB functions as a copper-based heatsink placed directly on the silicon die, offering a 16% improvement in thermal resistance and enhancing heat dissipation. This design contrasts with older configurations where DRAM was stacked directly on the SoC.

Industry Adoption Considerations

Qualcomm is reportedly considering integrating Samsung's HPB technology into its Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 chipsets to manage temperatures within compact smartphone environments. High-performance chipsets like the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 previously demonstrated a need for advanced thermal solutions, with an analysis indicating it required 61% more power than the A19 Pro to achieve its performance levels, leading to considerable heat generation.

Current vapor chambers have reportedly struggled to dissipate such heat effectively in some devices.

MediaTek, utilizing ARM's CPU designs, may also face similar thermal challenges, prompting suggestions for them to consider adopting HPB.

Cost Implications and Manufacturer Strategies

The transition to 2nm manufacturing, coupled with recent price increases in DRAM (70%) and NAND flash (100%), is contributing to significantly higher chipset costs. The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 was estimated at $280 per unit, suggesting the Gen 6 Pro could exceed $300. Additionally, LPDDR6 RAM is projected to be 20% more expensive than LPDDR5X and potentially available only in 16GB configurations.

These increased costs are profoundly influencing adoption strategies among smartphone manufacturers.

Qualcomm Adoption Outlook

The top five Android smartphone manufacturers are reportedly planning to continue integrating the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro into their devices. However, the premium pricing may pose challenges for other manufacturers.

MediaTek as a Cost-Effective Alternative

Android phone manufacturers outside the top five are reportedly considering a shift from Qualcomm to MediaTek to reduce chipset expenses, with the Dimensity line historically being more cost-effective. MediaTek's more affordable offerings are predicted to see substantial adoption, even if they demonstrate lower raw performance and efficiency compared to the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro.

Xiaomi's Strategic Approach

Xiaomi is rumored to be testing the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro, but its upcoming flagship smartphones may not widely feature this processor due to rising costs. The company might instead equip its standard, Pro, and Pro Max variants with either the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 or Dimensity 9600. The highly premium Xiaomi 18 Ultra variant is speculated to be the sole model to potentially include the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro. Qualcomm's flexibility in allowing partners to configure the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro with older LPDDR5X RAM could offer some financial options.

Supply Chain Impacts for MediaTek

MediaTek faces potential challenges due to a reported DRAM shortage and increased memory prices, which could negatively affect its System-on-Chip (SoC) shipments. Chinese companies, key customers for MediaTek, have reportedly reduced their shipment forecasts for the year.

Samsung's Exynos Market Strategy

Samsung's Exynos 2600 chipset is projected to comprise 25% of the upcoming Galaxy S26 series, with Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 accounting for the remaining share. This distribution is expected to shift significantly with the introduction of the Exynos 2700.

The Exynos 2700 is predicted to reach a 50% share in the Galaxy S27 series.

Increased adoption of the Exynos 2700, coupled with stabilized SF2P node yields, is projected to enable Samsung to attract new customers and achieve profitability in its foundry business. Samsung aims for its foundry operations to become net-positive in cash flow by 2027. The Exynos 2700 has been associated with a '4 + 1 + 4 + 1' CPU cluster configuration. Samsung also plans to transition to an in-house GPU with the Exynos 2800 chipset.

Attribution

These reports and rumors originate from various sources, including Weibo users Repeater 002, Smart Chip Insider, Fixed-focus digital cameras, and Digital Chat Station. Additional information on MediaTek's supply chain comes from a Chosun report, and Exynos 2700 projections are attributed to analyst Park Yu-ak of Kiwoom Securities.