The White House has announced the commencement of "phase two" of a Gaza ceasefire, based on an assessment of the situation in the territory. This phase follows a "peace plan" introduced by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approximately 14 weeks prior.
Phase two outlines the implementation of a transitional authority to govern Gaza, the deployment of an international stabilization force, continued withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and the disarmament of Hamas. However, significant challenges, including ongoing hostilities, disagreements over key provisions, and diverse reactions from international and local parties, continue to affect the plan's progression and the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Ceasefire Status and Casualties
Phase one of the peace plan facilitated the release of most living Israeli hostages and deceased captives, alongside a reported reduction in the intensity of attacks in Gaza. One deceased Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, remains to be returned. US peace envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed the start of "phase two" and urged Hamas to fulfill its obligations, including the return of Gvili's remains. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that the plan's subsequent stages would not advance until Gvili's remains are returned.
Under phase one, airstrikes on Gaza decreased but did not cease. Palestinian health authorities in Gaza have reported varying figures of fatalities since the truce began in October, ranging from over 449 to 477 Palestinians killed, predominantly among civilians, including women and children. The Israeli military has reported three of its soldiers killed in attacks by Palestinian armed groups during the same period. Israel maintains its strikes are for ceasefire enforcement, citing Hamas violations and re-establishment in withdrawn areas, which Hamas disputes.
Local sources reported the death of three-year-old Ahed Tareq Al-Bayouk in Mawasi, Rafah, on Sunday, reportedly shot near her family's tent. The IDF stated it was "not aware of a strike" and would "conduct an additional review." Amnesty International reported at least 136 child fatalities in Gaza since the October ceasefire.
Key Components of Phase Two
Disarming Hamas
Disarmament of Hamas is a central component of phase two. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated that non-compliance would lead to "serious consequences." Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim expressed willingness to discuss options for freezing, storing, or laying down weapons under Palestinian guarantees during the ceasefire. However, another official, Khaled Mashal, reportedly affirmed the group's weapons as a right to self-defense.
Hamas has maintained that it would not relinquish its weapons without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
US intelligence estimates indicate that Hamas has recruited more new members in Gaza than have been killed by Israel during the conflict, despite reduced military capabilities. Israeli officials have indicated a readiness to resume military operations if Hamas does not disarm. A senior Board of Peace official stated that technical details for weapons handover are being finalized, with the process anticipated to commence in March, and warned that if Hamas does not disarm, the plan will not advance.
International Stabilization Force
The Trump plan includes deploying an international stabilization force to ensure security in Gaza during phase two. The composition and timeline for this force are not yet clear. Several countries, including Egypt and Indonesia, have indicated readiness to participate. Israel has stated it will have veto power over participating countries and explicitly rejected Turkiye's involvement. Prime Minister Netanyahu also stated that there would be no Turkish or Qatari soldiers in Gaza.
Gaza Governance
Phase two includes the establishment of a transitional authority to govern Gaza instead of Hamas. Donald Trump is slated to chair the "Board of Peace," an organization designed to assist in governing Gaza. The board's executive leadership was announced to include US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair (initially associated, later reportedly removed due to opposition), World Bank President Ajay Banga, billionaire asset manager Marc Rowan, and Trump’s Deputy National Security Adviser Robert Gabriel. Israeli businessperson Yakir Gabay is also listed as a member.
A new technocratic Palestinian committee, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), has been formed to manage Gaza's daily affairs, with oversight from the executive committee. Ali Shaath, an engineer and former deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority, is designated to lead this committee. Hamas has expressed support for the formation of Shaath’s committee and stated its intention to dissolve its current government in Gaza once the new Palestinian committee assumes its role. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also voiced support, emphasizing the importance of linking Palestinian Authority institutions in the West Bank and Gaza.
However, Israel has expressed objections to the US announcement of an executive committee, stating it "was not coordinated with Israel and is contrary to its policy."
Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the Foreign Ministry to contact Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding this. Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir supported Netanyahu's stance, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented that countries that supported Hamas should not be involved in replacing it.
Israeli Withdrawal
The plan mandates a staged withdrawal of the IDF as the truce advances. Israel currently controls over 50 percent of Gaza's territory, marked by the "Yellow Line," which the IDF's Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, described as a new defensive and operational border. Concerns exist that Israel may retain land, leading to a permanent partition. UN Human Rights chief Volker Turk stated that Gaza's territory must be respected in its entirety. Israel has not indicated a willingness for a complete withdrawal, stating a need to maintain a significant security presence in the area and referencing a "new reality" in Gaza.
Rafah Crossing Developments
Hamas has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by not reopening the Rafah crossing, connecting Gaza and Egypt, for two-way traffic of people and aid. Israel indicated it would not allow this until the final hostage, Ran Gvili, was returned, announcing plans for Palestinians to exit through Rafah without a firm date. The Rafah crossing reopened this week, the first time since May 2024, with limited movement. Approximately 60 people have exited Gaza and 75 have returned since Monday, significantly below the expected daily allowance. Returnees face strict limitations on belongings.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Indonesia condemned Israel's plan, emphasizing that the crossing must be opened from both sides and rejecting any attempts to displace Palestinians. Reports from Palestinian media indicate lengthy waits and strict inspections at the crossing, along with alleged encounters with members of the Abu Shabab militia from Rafah, described as Israeli-backed, involving interrogations, detentions, and theft of belongings.
Officials involved in the Board of Peace initiative stated that once the plan is implemented, control over aid routes will shift away from Hamas, ensuring taxes go to the technocratic government. They stressed that even after the Rafah crossing opens, there will be no increase in the quantity or type of goods entering Gaza until Hamas disarms.
Gaza Reconstruction Plans
US officials have presented a comprehensive "New Gaza" plan at the World Economic Forum in Davos, outlining a complete rebuilding of the territory. The plan includes numerous skyscrapers, new housing estates, and phased development of residential, agricultural, and industrial zones designed to accommodate a population of 2.1 million. Jared Kushner, involved in mediating the October ceasefire, noted extensive damage, with an estimated 60 million tonnes of rubble needing clearance. Kushner emphasized the US commitment to enforcing Hamas's demilitarization, stating there is no alternative plan.
The US "Master Plan" map delineates specific zones: a "coastal tourism" area with 180 tower-blocks, designated "residential areas," an "industrial complex" for data centers and advanced manufacturing, and "parks, agriculture and sports facilities." Infrastructure development includes a new seaport and airport near the Egyptian border and a "trilateral crossing" at the convergence of the Egyptian and Israeli borders. The redevelopment is planned in four phases, commencing in Rafah and progressing north towards Gaza City. A security perimeter along the Egyptian and Israeli borders is also shown, where Israeli forces are expected to remain until Gaza's security is established.
The "New Rafah" component plans for over 100,000 permanent housing units, 200 education centers, and 75 medical facilities. Kushner estimated "New Rafah" could be completed within two to three years, with rubble removal and demolition reportedly commencing. Ali Shaath indicated that reconstruction and recovery are projected to take approximately three years, starting with immediate needs like shelter, and that Gaza could be rebuilt and improved within seven years. This timeline contrasts with a 2024 United Nations report estimating reconstruction would take until at least 2040. The UN estimates the cost of damage at £53 billion ($70 billion).
Other Reconstruction Proposals
Several other reconstruction proposals have been presented:
- The Phoenix of Gaza: A Palestinian-led initiative by a coalition of approximately 700 Palestinian experts, aiming to protect existing infrastructure and restore social and geographical fabric.
- Gaza Riviera: Former US President Donald Trump's concept suggesting significant economic development along Gaza's waterfront.
- The Great Plan (Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation Trust): A leaked document attributed to Israeli and American consultants, envisioning high-tech smart cities and proposing "voluntary relocation" of a quarter of Gaza's population with financial incentives.
- Egyptian and Arab League Plan: Proposes a five-year reconstruction period emphasizing local Gazan involvement.
- Palestinian Authority (PA) Proposals: Aiming to reconnect Gaza with the occupied West Bank and preserve refugee identity.
Challenges for Reconstruction
Reconstruction efforts face significant challenges, including:
- Clearing an estimated 60-68 million tonnes of rubble and unexploded ordnance.
- Obtaining Israeli permissions for the import of heavy machinery.
- Establishing political and security arrangements.
- Ensuring open borders for building materials.
- Securing substantial international funding.
Kushner stated that reconstruction would proceed only in areas where Hamas is fully disarmed or in regions already cleared of Palestinians and under Israeli military control, and that funds would not be allocated to Hamas-controlled areas. Concerns exist among Palestinians that the plan disregards existing Gaza and may not address land deed transfers or new housing allocation for current residents.
International Reactions and Humanitarian Challenges
Donald Trump announced his intention to reveal members of a new 'Board of Peace for Gaza,' which he described as a highly sought-after body that would collaborate with the UN. Invitations for the Board of Peace generated varied international responses. King Mohammed VI of Morocco accepted, becoming the first Arab leader. France indicated it did not plan to join "at this stage." Russia is studying the details. Belarus is ready to participate. Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich opposed the Board of Peace, calling it a "raw deal" for Israel.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains severe. A powerful winter storm caused flooding across the Gaza Strip, affecting over 800,000 individuals, submerging displacement camps and contributing to structural collapses. Nearly 1 million people lack adequate shelter, and 1.6 million experience high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the UN. The Gaza Health Ministry reported that over 70,000 Palestinians have died as a result of Israeli military actions since October 7, 2023, a figure the United Nations considers reliable. The conflict began on October 7, 2023, with a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that killed approximately 1,200 people and abducted 251.
Discussions on the peace plan and the future of Gaza continue, with diplomatic talks ongoing regarding the Rafah crossing and the US-backed governance initiative.