The Chagos Islands Deal: Sovereignty Transfer and Geopolitical Fallout
The United Kingdom has agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a decision slated for formalization in May 2025. This historic agreement includes a 99-year lease allowing the continued operation of the joint U.S.-U.K. military base on Diego Garcia, the largest island in the archipelago.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly criticized the plan, describing it as an "act of great stupidity" and "total weakness." This criticism comes despite his administration having previously supported the deal. Trump also linked his disapproval to his long-standing interest in the United States acquiring Greenland.
The Chagos Islands Agreement
The United Kingdom and Mauritius reached this significant agreement in May 2024, resolving a long-standing territorial dispute. The formal transfer of sovereignty is scheduled for May 2025.
Under the terms of the agreement:
- Sovereignty over the archipelago will be transferred to Mauritius.
- The UK will retain a 99-year lease to operate the joint U.S.-U.K. military base on Diego Garcia, which can be extended for an additional 50 years.
- The UK will pay Mauritius an average annual cost of £101 million for the lease. The net cost of the lease over 99 years is estimated at £3.4 billion.
- Public estimates for the total cost to British taxpayers over the next century, including annual payments and approximately £3 billion in compensation, suggest a figure of around £35 billion.
- A 24-mile buffer zone around Diego Garcia will be established, where any construction would require UK consent.
The UK government stated that the agreement was necessary due to international court decisions that had challenged Britain's position on the islands, which could have impacted the base's future operations.
The deal aims to secure the operations of the joint U.S.-U.K. base for generations, maintaining its capabilities and excluding potential adversaries. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government indicated that the deal was preferable to continued legal disputes and was influenced by Washington's concerns about the base's future.
Historical Context and Strategic Importance
The Chagos Islands, an archipelago in the central Indian Ocean, were historically administered as part of colonial Mauritius. In 1965, the UK separated the Chagos Islands from Mauritius, creating the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), three years before Mauritius gained independence in 1968. This separation was influenced by Cold War strategic considerations to establish a secure military foothold in the region.
Between 1967 and the early 1970s, the Chagossian islanders were forcibly removed from their homes, with most resettling in Mauritius and Seychelles, to facilitate the construction of the military base. Mauritius has consistently maintained that it was unlawfully compelled to cede the islands.
In 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a non-binding advisory opinion, recommending that the UK relinquish control of the Chagos Islands "as rapidly as possible" to complete the decolonization of Mauritian territory. The UN General Assembly subsequently supported this view.
The Diego Garcia base, established by the U.S. and UK in 1971, is considered a significant overseas asset for the U.S. It has supported operations in Iraq, served as a key location for bombers across Asia, and is a critical hub for long-range bombers, logistics, intelligence, and communications across the Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and Africa. Approximately 2,500 U.S. military and civilian personnel are stationed there.
Trump's Unexpected Reversal
Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly criticized the UK's decision, posting messages on Truth Social. He described the transfer of sovereignty as an "act of great stupidity" and an "act of total weakness," asserting it was "FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER."
Trump claimed that nations such as China and Russia, which he stated recognize only strength, would interpret this action as a sign of "total weakness."
Trump linked his criticism of the Chagos deal to his interest in the United States acquiring Greenland, stating that Greenland is "imperative for National and World Security." He also suggested that the UK's decision provided additional rationale for his interest in Greenland. Trump further warned that the U.S. could use military force to secure the Diego Garcia base if future agreements threatened access or U.S. operations.
Prior to his recent statements, the Trump administration had supported the Chagos Islands deal. In May of the previous year (2023), then-Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a comprehensive interagency review determined the agreement "secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia." Rubio also indicated that Trump had expressed support for this "monumental achievement" during a White House meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump had also informed Sir Keir Starmer in February 2024 that he was "inclined to go with your country" regarding the deal.
International Reactions and Defense
The UK government defended its decision, affirming it would "never compromise on our national security." A spokesperson for the Prime Minister stated that the U.S. continues to support the deal, citing explicit recognition of its strength by the president the previous year and backing from Five Eyes allies (U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand). The agreement was also publicly welcomed by other international partners, including India, Japan, and South Korea.
UK Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty expressed surprise at Trump's comments and indicated plans for discussions with the U.S. administration. Downing Street confirmed that Trump and Starmer recently discussed Diego Garcia and agreed to safeguard the base’s continued operation.
Mauritius' attorney general, Gavin Glover, stated his expectation for the agreement to proceed, emphasizing that the deal was negotiated exclusively between the UK and Mauritius and that international law already recognizes Mauritius's sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago. Mauritius has called for the swift implementation of the agreement. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that U.S. intelligence agencies do not align with Donald Trump's recent opposition, highlighting the U.S. administration's prior support for the agreement.
Domestic and Geopolitical Opposition
Beyond Trump's statements, the Chagos deal has faced opposition from some senior Republicans in the U.S. and figures within the UK government. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has actively lobbied against the agreement.
In the UK, the Conservative party has opposed the bill, which is currently undergoing parliamentary scrutiny. They tabled an amendment in the House of Lords, calling for a pause due to "changing geopolitical circumstances" and arguing that the bill would contravene a 1966 Treaty with the United States stipulating the territory "shall remain under UK sovereignty." The government postponed the House of Lords debate, attributing the delay to ongoing discussions with the U.S., but affirmed its commitment to the deal.
Critics of the deal have also raised concerns regarding Mauritius's relationship with China and potential implications for regional influence.
The Greenland Connection
Trump's criticism of the Chagos deal was explicitly linked to his long-standing interest in the U.S. acquiring Greenland. Text exchanges between former President Trump and European leaders concerning Greenland were released:
- Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre contacted Trump on January 18 regarding Greenland, Gaza, Ukraine, and tariffs, proposing a call to de-escalate tensions. Trump responded, questioning Denmark's right to Greenland and asserting that "Complete and Total Control of Greenland" is necessary for global security.
- French President Emmanuel Macron messaged Trump on January 19, expressing agreement on Syria but stating, "I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland." Macron proposed a G7 meeting in Paris after Davos, inviting various international representatives.
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte messaged Trump on January 20, praising his actions in Syria and committing to finding a resolution regarding Greenland.